Sorry, just a little more brain dead than usual. The documentary The Promise -- saw it on HBO the first time it was on. Great stuff! The original version of Factory (same music completely different story/lyrics) was so cool. Glad the second version made the album. I was working in a factory at the time during summer break and that song just floored me. It was so dead on. I got the Darkness box set for Christmas. Still have to watch the Houston show DVD but that will mean a mean hangover the next day so some planning is required.
Back on topic...
Great AFD out of Albany...
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM
THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN
OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF
A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS
ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH
WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A
NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL
MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS
STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM
IN THAT PRODUCT.
MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS
WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20
BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN
GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS
MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF
SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE
NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS
TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF
AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME
MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE
COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE
ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.
I went outside, stuck a yardstick in the driveway, 10". Call it 14.1" without settling. Only kidding, not very scientific. That massive band sat just to my east so I think we got robbed a bit. Substance, etc.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1000 AM...FLURRIES STILL TAKING PLACE BUT RADAR RETURNS HAVE
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APPARENTLY SOME SORT OF
SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS GOING ON WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS...AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING STORM UPSTREAM.
LOW CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN SHIPPED FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE
FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTH. THE H20 LP ALSO INDICATES A
POSSIBLE VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE.
EITHER WAY...INNOCUOUS SNOW AND CERTAINLY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THE UPCOMING STORM. MENTION FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
FROM THE CD NORTHWARD.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY
ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND
WEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.
THE COASTAL STORM AS OF 1000 AM...WAS SITTING ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY TIED INTO THE
VORTICITY TRAIL TRAILING NORTHWEST FROM IT...ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
STRONG VORTICITY MAX BACK TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL
ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS
QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET.
STAY TUNED.
DONE! From NYC Office
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON
EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO
EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE
BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA
SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT
WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1
GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH
ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND
SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12
INCHES THERE.