tson96

2" Currently light snow falling. 19F Quite the over achiever!

-9f Big dump coming?

Thanks! 57 models and nothing on!

Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM?

Sorry, just a little more brain dead than usual. The documentary The Promise -- saw it on HBO the first time it was on. Great stuff! The original version of Factory (same music completely different story/lyrics) was so cool. Glad the second version made the album. I was working in a factory at the time during summer break and that song just floored me. It was so dead on. I got the Darkness box set for Christmas. Still have to watch the Houston show DVD but that will mean a mean hangover the next day so some planning is required. Back on topic... Great AFD out of Albany... .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT. MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.

3.5" here. You mean the new Darkness box set that includes The Promise?? yes.

NWS Albany just upped the amounts for POU 4-8 now. Also took mix out of next week's forecast.

12Z GFS -- POU soundings? All frozen? Thks

I went outside, stuck a yardstick in the driveway, 10". Call it 14.1" without settling. Only kidding, not very scientific. That massive band sat just to my east so I think we got robbed a bit. Substance, etc.

10" here. Nice dump!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1000 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1000 AM...FLURRIES STILL TAKING PLACE BUT RADAR RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APPARENTLY SOME SORT OF SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS GOING ON WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS...AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM UPSTREAM. LOW CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN SHIPPED FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTH. THE H20 LP ALSO INDICATES A POSSIBLE VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE. EITHER WAY...INNOCUOUS SNOW AND CERTAINLY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPCOMING STORM. MENTION FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM THE CD NORTHWARD. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. THE COASTAL STORM AS OF 1000 AM...WAS SITTING ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY TIED INTO THE VORTICITY TRAIL TRAILING NORTHWEST FROM IT...ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX BACK TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET. STAY TUNED.

Finally a snowfall map out of NWS Albany http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm

Great stuff! Thanks all.

Check out the 12Z NAM --- We get crushed!

great shot!!!