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January 3-5 Timeframe - Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone

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GFS may never get on board because the storm is unlikely to happen anyway. Its an OP model run of the Euro...I do think the GFS will trend deeper with the trough and have some sort of a wave eventually, but a full blown bomb on the east coast right now is still a fantasy.

I tend to agree. While the possibility can't be dismissed entirely, this could very well be one of those cold, dry troughs with some sort of wave or storm offshore. Perhaps a more modest storm closer to the coast is possible too. Because of the strong PNA ridging out west, I think an OTS solution is more likely than a GL or Apps runner. I never buy into an extreme model solution or two more than a few days out, unless it has consistency and near unanimous support from other models. Regardless, it is still something to watch as something *could* happen, but right now I'm not buying the K-U scenario depicted on today's Euro run.

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HUGE differences in the 00z GFS regarding this timeframe, the ridge out west is much more amplified on this run and the trough is deeper and has more energy. This looks liked it caved to the euro tonight.

I bet mets can further explain on this....

EDIT:

And there's your monster folks right there sitting and hammered the fishes. Whats screwing up the GFS is that extra, "lost" S/W that is left behind in the phase. This is the trailing piece that runs through Minnesota and Wisconsin around hr 168. Then look at hour 186 lol. that energy will probably hang back and form a even deeper trough like the ECM has. This was a HUGE step towards those "Fantalicious" 12z solutions! IMO

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I tend to agree. While the possibility can't be dismissed entirely, this could very well be one of those cold, dry troughs with some sort of wave or storm offshore. Perhaps a more modest storm closer to the coast is possible too. Because of the strong PNA ridging out west, I think an OTS solution is more likely than a GL or Apps runner. I never buy into an extreme model solution or two more than a few days out, unless it has consistency and near unanimous support from other models. Regardless, it is still something to watch as something *could* happen, but right now I'm not buying the K-U scenario depicted on today's Euro run.

May as well...this winter has found every other way to suck.

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Probably in and out quicker than a teen boy on prom night and unaccompanied by snow...like every other cold shot this season.

This ones major league cold though. That's what interests me now. GEFS suggest it doesn't have staying power but not back to above normal either necessarily. We'll have some chances in the coming weeks.

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