Amped Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 24-48hrs after a major ridge amplification over the central rockies a strong low pressure almost always tracks just off the DelMarva. This time it won't because the first giant northern stream system is in the way and shoves the coldfront too far offshore. You can't blame the shortwave for lack of effort though it is digging more every run. This will be the equivilant of a 20 point 4th quarter comeback when your down 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 24-48hrs after a major ridge amplification over the central rockies a strong low pressure almost always tracks just off the DelMarva. This time it won't because the first giant northern stream system is in the way and shoves the coldfront too far offshore. You can't blame the shortwave for lack of effort though it is digging more every run. This will be the equivilant of a 20 point 4th quarter comeback when your down 30. Funny, good analogy about the 20 point comeback. Is that a secondary arctic boundary I see in the isobaric bend running from about New Brunswick to Portland to NYC to Northern VA? This is getting pretty damn close to something good, at least at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 24-48hrs after a major ridge amplification over the central rockies a strong low pressure almost always tracks just off the DelMarva. This time it won't because the first giant northern stream system is in the way and shoves the coldfront too far offshore. You can't blame the shortwave for lack of effort though it is digging more every run. This will be the equivilant of a 20 point 4th quarter comeback when your down 30. will or would? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Let's hope for the last minute trend NW. All kidding aside, it does look good at 500. Trough tilting negative off the Carolinas. The thing hurting us is the lack of any ridging in the NW. In fact, there is a mini trough in the upper NW. Push that ridge up a bit and further west and then there would be more room for this thing to tuck in closer to the coast while amplifying. Long shot, but interesting to watch nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 will or would? will be a fish storm anyway who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 will be a fish storm anyway who cares. Probably ... okay. But what makes that interesting is that the GFS has a pretty substantial progressivity bias. It's 00z tilts that negative off the coast, as opposed to the NAM being on or even west of the Coast. One almost wants to correct the GFS West... But it could do so, and even the NAM would result in a pretty interesting rapid cyclogen scenario, but still in the NAM's solution, just a hair too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Probably ... okay. But what makes that interesting is that the GFS has a pretty substantial progressivity bias. It's 00z tilts that negative off the coast, as opposed to the NAM being on or even west of the Coast. One almost wants to correct the GFS West... But it could do so, and even the NAM would result in a pretty interesting rapid cyclogen scenario, but still in the NAM's solution, just a hair too far east. This, and what has been for the trend for coastals all year??? Actually, what has been the trend for all storms all year? Remember this past 12/27 event??? GFS showed the storm near the BM and the final outcome was through NY state... like you said tip, people are doubting snow this year, but if we want a storm to hit, isnt this where we want it on all of the models now??? 29 deg/interested/drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 euro finally now has a weak coastal low passing just a hair SE of the BM on thursday...brings some light snows to the area...bit more over eastern areas with a hint of an inverted trough on the backside of it. nothing major verbatim but some flakes none-the-less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 euro finally now has a weak coastal low passing just a hair SE of the BM on thursday...brings some light snows to the area...bit more over eastern areas with a hint of an inverted trough on the backside of it. nothing major verbatim but some flakes none-the-less. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 euro finally now has a weak coastal low passing just a hair SE of the BM on thursday...brings some light snows to the area...bit more over eastern areas with a hint of an inverted trough on the backside of it. nothing major verbatim but some flakes none-the-less. Yeah I could see it becoming a touch more significant but nothing major. Still a boring weather pattern for sure. At least here in New England I don't see a major torch so good news for the ski areas but pretty sleepy for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah I could see it becoming a touch more significant but nothing major. Still a boring weather pattern for sure. At least here in New England I don't see a major torch so good news for the ski areas but pretty sleepy for the rest of us. yeah likely too progressive and far southeast...but worth watching, imo...mainly given the otherwise quiet pattern. two possible things to help - should be a decent baro. zone offshore and maybe se ridge ends up a bit more stought. ggem ens: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The euro ensembles have a weak low as well, but it's kind of a crappy progressive pattern at that point. Hopefully a little light snow for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why is DT saying it is blowing up a big storm but too far offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why is DT saying it is blowing up a big storm but too far offshore? Why did DT ever have a snowfall map?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Who is Dick Tolleris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why is DT saying it is blowing up a big storm but too far offshore? 2 systems. The first is on Wednesday. That was this initial one that the Euro showed bombing out just S of SNE. That storm threat never materialized as it is now developing to far offshore. That's the one DT was talking about. The 2nd potential system is on Friday. That's the one being discussed right now. It's a late blooming Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Focus less attention on the trough in the east and more on the ridge out west. The problem is the s/w superimposed on top. Rather than a high amplitude long wave ridge and spike in the PNA, like euro runs of yore, we have a squashed ridge with a much more progressive pattern as that s/w acts to kick out the east trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 euro finally now has a weak coastal low passing just a hair SE of the BM on thursday...brings some light snows to the area...bit more over eastern areas with a hint of an inverted trough on the backside of it. nothing major verbatim but some flakes none-the-less. Looks like the 12z Euro today continues the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looks like the 12z Euro today continues the theme. I don't like the looks of it, I think it's too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I don't like the looks of it, I think it's too progressive. Yea there is nothing there, meh next seven-ten snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Focus less attention on the trough in the east and more on the ridge out west. The problem is the s/w superimposed on top. Rather than a high amplitude long wave ridge and spike in the PNA, like euro runs of yore, we have a squashed ridge with a much more progressive pattern as that s/w acts to kick out the east trough Fwiw, 96-120 or so hours looks "flurry-ey" and light snow shower like amid cold thickness, as 2ndary albeit weaker S/W insert into the backside of the L/W axis means some instability. The RH fields are at or > 75% for much of the area in the Euro's last 2 solutions for that time frame, with the same sort of appeal aloft. Wouldn't shock me to get a wintry vibe out of that. That time range is inside the better performance arena for the Euro compared to the D8 monster it had last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Ah yes, Phil I see you mentioned that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 The euro ensembles have a weak low as well, but it's kind of a crappy progressive pattern at that point. Hopefully a little light snow for some. I don't like the looks of it, I think it's too progressive. Sure it's progressive and crappy, but verbatim, it's light snow for Eastern areas. A little light snow would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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