Logan11 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It wasn't worth six pages yet, with our pattern and track record so far this winter. It could well come back and threaten, but after this current amplification and phasing (which yieldd us nary a single flake), I'm not gonna really join the fray on this until it is three or four days out. Plenty of fruitless, vintage 1980s cold, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I might have missed it but did DT put out a map for the 0z euro.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 I might have missed it but did DT put out a map for the 0z euro.......... Yeah, here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, here it is. lol. That may also be the snow probability map for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 God you guys live an die by each run... the threat is still there and its probably the best threat we've had since 10/29.. Ok now I'm gonna go wait for Kevin's forecast for NYDE threat.. I'm so excited for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the threat is still there and its probably the best threat we've had since 10/29.. Flood threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Flood threat? whiff is a bigger threat in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 whiff is a bigger threat in my mind. Maybe you're right but despite the emerging +PNA I don't think it alters the persistent theme: Gradient pattern along the coastal plain. No strong surface low. Precip arriving well before the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 God you guys live an die by each run... the threat is still there and its probably the best threat we've had since 10/29.. Ok now I'm gonna go wait for Kevin's forecast for NYDE threat.. I'm so excited for it No, the naysayers have doubted this potential all along....it's the optimistic crowd that was roused into action by one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, here it is. :lol: The person who posts that on wxrisk.com should be knighted. I'd do it, but I like to read what he offers up and he has already blocked me from his personal account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, here it is. lol, Thats the same one i had in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Okay, for you snow-geese, this has been a tough go so far - no doubt. After the early spoils of unnatural beauty fell upon the Hallow's Eve, the horror of winter's absentia could not have become a darker irony. The frustration of it must almost seem by design for being just so elegantly wrong. I remember mentioning this in a post the other day and was afraid of something like this happening, and I think it may have something to do with the Pacific suddenly responding to the presence of a reborn MJO wave. It re-emerged from the incoherent COD region in Phase 4 last week and has since matured to moderate strength in Phase 5 status. Without any help from an erstwhile AO (to compress the overall geopotential medium) such as that which covered the last month and more, that leaves/left the middle latitudes a bit more prone to perturbations of a tropical origin/forcing. Even NCEP finally caved to the notion that for 40N ...the polar field indexes tend to mask the Pacific/ENSO signals. This was part of their seasonal outlook/reasoning back in September I believe it was. Many of us knew this to be true for years... Anyway, since the MJO is in fact a 15N - 15S latitude phenomenon, logic forces one to question whether MJO wave dispersion physics may also be constructive -vs- deconstructively interfered by AO when considering the overal circulation as a whole. I like that idea a lot!. Honestly, I have not read any studies that formally broach the question of any correlations between the AO and MJO, but it is an intriguing hypothesis for me, nonetheless. Supposing for a moment it were true: That would mean a +AO, combined with an + eastward propagating MJO in Phase 4/5 would mean more realization of the Phase 4/5 correlation when compared to intervals where the the AO were negative ... Either way, I can't imagine a current eastward propagating MJO in Phase 5 - albeit weakening in time - is helping those previous Euro solutions to realization. The preferred Phase 4/5 correlations on the pattern are to raise heights over eastern N/A, particularly right through 40N and into the heart of any +PNA. That said, the previous week to 2 weeks worth of COD MJO values tended to [most likely] limit any influence from tropical forcing down to a dull roar. The atmosphere was like destined to a +PNA given time, because the Perennial North American Pattern (which I have often referred to as the "PNAP") features a modest western ridge, eastern trough couplet. It is plausible to me when taking all this into consideration that the Euro runs (GGEM and whatever else had followed suit), were merely defaulting the Pacific pattern into an exaggerate background La Nina-like, B.C. ridge with cold trough in the E yesterday, because there wasn't yet a physical presence in the initialization for much of anything else. However, that may have changed last night; the last 3 days have shown that the foresaid MJO Phase 5 wave has begin actively propagating eastward. Boom - arrives background exertion to raise height that much in the east, and a slightly more progressive L/W trough results ... effectively destroying that perfect solution from yesterday - that's all essentially deconstructive wave interference on the larger synoptic scale. I feel fairly confident in this conceptual overview enough to be surprised if those former run notions return. Now that MJO has arrived on the scene, its presence is transiently here to stay. Taking a shot at deterministic outlooks... I think shallower systems should be favored for now. I don't think when considering the apparent MJO wave magnitude that it will be sufficient to completely damp the erstwhile arriving +PNA, but think it will probably succeed in damping overall cyclogenesis potential to some degree. There is substantive cold at middle-high latitudes, such that tipping the flow NW through Canada will chill us back considerably, without the advantage of a negative AO. It can snow in this sort of overall regime, but those scenarios would come down to nailing individual impulses and there ability to ignite events on smaller hard to track scales. One such event may be NYE or thereabouts. And then later next week we'll see if instead of an exotic KU type event, perhaps a NJ model low might show up. I just think if the full latitude monster were to re-appear, I'd be nonplussed to know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 transiently here to stay. Totally stealing this phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 wonder if we can pull a miller b out of next week's pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Tip needs to incorporate the term "sneaky" into his diatribes more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 wonder if we can pull a miller b out of next week's pattern. Everyone start praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Totally stealing this phrase. Ha ha, sorry for the dopey sounding oxymoron - what was meant was, within a certain amount of time (say 5 or 7 days worth...), the current MJO presence/influence will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ha ha, sorry for the dopey sounding oxymoron - what was meant was, within a certain amount of time (say 5 or 7 days worth...), the current MJO presence/influence will continue. Many of the weenies in the NYE thread are talking about mild rains with the NY weekend clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 wonder if we can pull a miller b out of next week's pattern. The pattern could be there for one. Get that PNA to spike and have the ridge in the right position. I'd like to take my chances on the northern jet rather than the southern at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Many of the weenies in the NYE thread are talking about mild rains with the NY weekend clipper Yea especially those damn Met weenies, its ovah Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The pattern could be there for one. Get that PNA to spike and have the ridge in the right position. I'd like to take my chances on the northern jet rather than the southern at this point. Agreed... NJ model-type lows where shallower systems with some vorticity potency run out over the upper MA and then we get clipped by rapid cyclogen moving just underneath... Meanwhile it's in the mid 60s on the southern tip of the Del Marva in that sort of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Offshore this run...but quite cold on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Offshore this run...but quite cold on the Euro. Witches tit Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Cold and dry ..Sub zero nights and 10-15 for daytime highs ..bare , cracked, frozen ground..some still green..some brown, ponds frozen over so Joe can play pond hockey even though he doesn't own a pair of skates. The snowless winter goes on and on and on. It's possible BDL/BOS/PVD go NOV/DEC/JAN with only a trace of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Witches tit Tuesday. 504 thickness to the mass border weds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Cold and dry ..Sub zero nights and 10-15 for daytime highs ..bare , cracked, frozen ground..some still green..some brown, ponds frozen over so Joe can play pond hockey even though he doesn't own a pair of skates. The snowless winter goes on and on and on. It's possible BDL/BOS/PVD go NOV/DEC/JAN with only a trace of snow Stj shut down. 1991-92 esque. Cold came but never with snow it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 504 thickness to the mass border weds.. Wow...the gfs wasn't even that cold...sub zero highs for NNE...single digit/low teens for sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Stj shut down. 1991-92 esque. Cold came but never with snow it seemed. Eh, we don't need a STJ...look at last winter. Biggest problem is the PJ has been mostly north this winter. Leads to a lack of baroclinicity, lack of gulf moisture tap, etc...so we get a few rainers...then dry spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Cold and dry ..Sub zero nights and 10-15 for daytime highs ..bare , cracked, frozen ground..some still green..some brown, ponds frozen over so Joe can play pond hockey even though he doesn't own a pair of skates. The snowless winter goes on and on and on. It's possible BDL/BOS/PVD go NOV/DEC/JAN with only a trace of snow cold and brown......pure misery. Ray will be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Why do we do this to ourselves? We all need to mail it in regarding snow this winter. It will be nice to have a week to 10 days of sustained cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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