Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm pretty amazed at the continuity off of the 00z run... Other than minor details, with thermal fields and isobaric layouts that is for all intents and purposes the same run. Again, fwiw, the GGEM jumped pretty heavily on-board this notion, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Meh....First solid Euro tease for the season: It's good for ratings here. 650+ browsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I have invested my entire emotional fortune in this storm despite Scotters recommendation to not and to proceed with extreme heavy heavy caution. Well just kidding, anyone who believes models nail day 7 storms should be on the WOTY list. Let's hope the PNA pops and we get a semblance of a chance, in the meantime it is fun to discuss and I doubt caution is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It's good for ratings here. 650+ browsing. We do need a new server test, hopefully next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 LOL I would take my chances, has a Dec 2003 feel. I like the November 1950 analogy, or why not...March 1888. OK, how about February 1898? All of those had a strong press of arctic air coming in from the west, with a crazy north/south baroclinic boundary along of just off the coast. Feb 1898 had the banana-high look of this run, with a massive high over the plains, with a strong arm extending into Quebec. It's a model run of something 7-8 days away...I know, I'll exhale now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nogaps has the 180h storm...but its over the Flemish Cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 I have invested my entire emotional fortune in this storm despite Scotters recommendation to not and to proceed with extreme heavy heavy caution. Well just kidding, anyone who believes models nail day 7 storms should be on the WOTY list. Let's hope the PNA pops and we get a semblance of a chance, in the meantime it is fun to discuss and I doubt caution is needed. Just get this solution to the Sat/Sun timeframe on the models and I'll invest my time. Until then, I'll enjoy the rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nogaps has the 180h storm...but its over the Flemish Cap. Always good to have that model say congrats Andrea Gail for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 For now let's get stoked up about the Saturday event and worry about the next one later CMON Kevin we all know you want to weenie out after seeing the euro.. just get it over with. You weenie over models.that show no snow but then when it shows a monster storm you're tamed? I don't get your weeniesm.. its quite strange actually Just let it out! It feels great! My turn.. holy fook at the Euro!!!!! First time I've been excited since 10/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Jan 3-4 storm on the Euro is actually not all that dissimilar from Boxing Day 2010, aside from the state of the NAO ... which some might aptly argue is a significant difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just get this solution to the Sat/Sun timeframe on the models and I'll invest my time. Until then, I'll enjoy the rain and wind. BS you will check every run. Stop the denial, you have the sickness. That's the first step. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro was the usual story with the Clipper -> snow in Dacks/VTNH/ME ...though it did throw Ray a last minute inch or two I saw. Not sure if there is any reason to think this would trend south ...of course I really wish it would. Just get this solution to the Sat/Sun timeframe on the models and I'll invest my time. Until then, I'll enjoy the rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Jan 3-4 storm on the Euro is actually not all that dissimilar from Boxing Day 2010, aside from the state of the NAO ... which some might aptly argue is a significant difference It actually creates its own block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nogaps has the 180h storm...but its over the Flemish Cap. Well there you go - it's ova! Ginxy's tying off the noose and Scott's threatening to lose all objectivity. Tip's telling everyone they are insane for investing emotionally in Meteorology, while failing to realize that experiential weather and Meteorology are mutually exclusive. Messenger is explaining to us why when there is a foot of snow on ground it's really raining. Jerry's rewriting his rewritten seasonal outlook to include the reworded version of rewound winter, ...retrospectively. Kevin tells us all there's hours and hours of snow yet to go when the last of the snow had moved off Cape Cod 3 days prior. Ray is better than everyone because he says, "meh, I was never sold on any big deal" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well there you go - it's ova! Ginxy's tying off the noose and Scott's threatening to lose all objectivity. Tip's telling everyone they are insane for investing emotionally in Meteorology, while failing to realize that it experiential weather and Meteorology are mutually exclusive. Messenger is explaining to us why when there is a foot of snow on ground it's really raining. Jerry's rewriting his rewritten seasonal outlook to include the reworded version of rewound winter, ...retrospectively. Kevin tells us all there's hours and hours of snow yet to go when the last of the snow had moved off Cape Cod 3 days prior. Ray is better than everyone because he says, "meh, I was never sold any big deal" ... well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Jan 3-4 storm on the Euro is actually not all that dissimilar from Boxing Day 2010, aside from the state of the NAO ... which some might aptly argue is a significant difference I was actually going to say the same thing, looks like it would close off too far south and wallop earthlight with the death band again...obviously too far out to speculate and wouldn't happen that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Next weeks storm will turn into a much lesser deal than what is being tossed around today. We'll get snow..but it won't be a monster. I still can't believe folks other than Will, me and Tip are not getting somewhat excited for a few inches of snow NYE. Reminds of that Raiders/ Pats snow game 7 or 8 yrs ago Yes yes. The proper thing to do is to take them one at a time, and I agree ... the system New Year's eve, or thereabouts, should be given at least some attention. One thing I am thinking that is GFS troubling is that the data is coming linearly off the Pacific, which means it is almost entirely assimilation reliant at times of initialization before perhaps 84 hour or so prior to arriving over eastern N/A. That's basically like saying it has to be D3.5 before the GFS comes out of a coma. It's no wonder GFS' own performance indeed seems to bump at D3... That is troubling in the sense that the Euro has a superior "4-D Variable" system (whatever the f that means), but is why it is a superior model from 4.5/5 days on on inward. The S/W in question for the late week system is not yet being sampled by the GFS's older method of being more physical sounding density reliant. Obviously assimilation goes into the GFS grid, but we have seen countless scenarios where the model suddenly morphs an event when the nose of the S/W jet dynamics just starts tickling the West coast of N/A ...for a reason. Anyway, we get to D5 and suddenly the Euro shows more amplitude in the OV to just S of SNE - I bet it is sampling better for all of this. I bet tonight it comes in some percentage even more stoked. But even if not, I think in all cases 36 hour from now, that run will be sampling more physical in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yes yes. The proper thing to do is to take them one at a time, and I agree ... the system New Year's eve, or thereabouts, should be given at least some attention. One thing I am thinking that is GFS troubling is that the data is coming linearly off the Pacific, which means it is almost entirely assimilation reliant at times of initialization before perhaps 84 hour or so prior to arriving over eastern N/A. That's basically like saying it has to be D3.5 before the GFS comes out of a coma. It's no wonder GFS' own performance indeed seems to bump at D3... That is troubling in the sense that the Euro has a superior "4-D Variable" system (whatever the f that means), but is why it is a superior model from 4.5/5 days on on inward. The S/W in question for the late week system is not yet being sampled by the GFS's older method of being more physical sounding density reliant. Obviously assimilation goes into the GFS grid, but we have seen countless scenarios where the model suddenly morphs an event when the nose of the S/W jet dynamics just starts tickling the West coast of N/A ...for a reason. Anyway, we get to D5 and suddenly the Euro shows more amplitude in the OV to just S of SNE - I bet it is sampling better for all of this. I bet tonight it comes in some percentage even more stoked. But even if not, I think in all cases 36 hour from now, that run will be sampling more physical in nature. Next weeks storm is fun to look at but we know it's unrealistic given the indices/synoptics...the one this weekend screams sneaky little devil..and it's nice to have the Euro and it's ens on our side. Just grab a couple inches and run like we just stole a pair of panties from our friends MILF in high school to hang from the rerarview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ensembles have a low up north, but they don't dig at all like the op run...for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ensembles have the monster ridge out west...they don't carve the trough as deep in the east so we don't see that ridiculous low...but the isobars hang back in an anafrontal manner on the mean so it does suggest that some members are probably forming something. The huge ridge is probably what you'd want to focus on for now for the Jan 3-4 storm...and then worry about the trough/vortmax specifics as we get a couple days closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I love it when Will and Scooter see the same data at the same time..Scooter posts the cautious route every time and Will offers details and what if type scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I love it when Will and Scooter see the same data at the same time..Scooter posts the cautious route every time and Will offers details and what if type scenarios That is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just something to keep in the back of our heads. NWS BOX is supposed to have their radar site down starting the 4th of January for the upgrade to dual-polarization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I love it when Will and Scooter see the same data at the same time..Scooter posts the cautious route every time and Will offers details and what if type scenarios I think we are seeing the exact same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just something to keep in the back of our heads. NWS BOX is supposed to have their radar site down starting the 4th of January for the upgrade to dual-polarization. Not an issue for me, OKX does well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we are seeing the exact same thing? Yeah we are...he was pointing out that I was giving the optimistic side of seeing the huge ridge and saying what we want to have happen to get a good storm. Its a pretty impressive ridge for an ensemble mean I think 6-7 days out. I'd be surprised if there wasn't some type of wave that comes out of the south from that. Where it tracks is obviously anyone's guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think the euro ensembles flatten the ridge out west a little quicker, which is why the low forms well to the ENE. The euro op I think tries to show what can happen if the ridge stays highly amplified long enough. Obviously the ensembles will be less enthusiastic when you get out in time, because they are a smoothed mean, but it may also have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Next weeks storm is fun to look at but we know it's unrealistic given the indices/synoptics...the one this weekend screams sneaky little devil..and it's nice to have the Euro and it's ens on our side. Just grab a couple inches and run like we just stole a pair of panties from our friends MILF in high school to hang from the rerarview Eh, perhaps in an exacting sense of it...maybe, but the stuff we were discussing earlier, I showed that there is a pretty significant Archembault signal here. Flip back a couple few pages and you'll see the annotated charts I provided, showing the PNA spike that is centered on that event. It's not altogether unrealistic in either index or synoptic actually. I think Scott's advice is best for the time being. There's likely to be a storm event ....may even be big, but there is nothing much more than can be said about it from any point of view of certitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah we are...he was pointing out that I was giving the optimistic side of seeing the huge ridge and saying what we want to have happen to get a good storm. Its a pretty impressive ridge for an ensemble mean I think 6-7 days out. I'd be surprised if there wasn't some type of wave that comes out of the south from that. Where it tracks is obviously anyone's guess at this point. I agree on that and mentioned it earlier. A ridge like that will blow something up, but where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just something to keep in the back of our heads. NWS BOX is supposed to have their radar site down starting the 4th of January for the upgrade to dual-polarization. that will be awful if there is anything meaningful to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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