Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol at the GFS, snowing in FL while we are getting heavy rain in SNE.. that would be great..I think even Will would have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 18z GFS has a monster... ...only a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 when should it show up on the gfs? 12-24hrs after the Euro loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS may never get on board because the storm is unlikely to happen anyway. Its an OP model run of the Euro...I do think the GFS will trend deeper with the trough and have some sort of a wave eventually, but a full blown bomb on the east coast right now is still a fantasy. +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GEFS looks to have a coastal low, but it develops it late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 what kind of monster? like feet for the whole eastern sea board..like feb 1899? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS may never get on board because the storm is unlikely to happen anyway. Its an OP model run of the Euro...I do think the GFS will trend deeper with the trough and have some sort of a wave eventually, but a full blown bomb on the east coast right now is still a fantasy. I tend to agree. While the possibility can't be dismissed entirely, this could very well be one of those cold, dry troughs with some sort of wave or storm offshore. Perhaps a more modest storm closer to the coast is possible too. Because of the strong PNA ridging out west, I think an OTS solution is more likely than a GL or Apps runner. I never buy into an extreme model solution or two more than a few days out, unless it has consistency and near unanimous support from other models. Regardless, it is still something to watch as something *could* happen, but right now I'm not buying the K-U scenario depicted on today's Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It would be a good hit, but SNE dryslots and mixes for a time, while the MA gets KU'd. I would fooking kill myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I would fooking kill myself DTs map says no dryslot, Tobin cancel. I would bet a lot of money the Euro run never happens as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Will the models show the same evolution? 00Z's huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 DTs map says no dryslot, Tobin cancel. I would bet a lot of money the Euro run never happens as depicted. I agree, Pattern does not support that type of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Isn't January 3-5 like 8-10 days away? LOL 5 pages of posts for a day 8+ threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Isn't January 3-5 like 8-10 days away? 7-9 We've reached a new low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This pattern is driving people crazy, and understandably so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 HUGE differences in the 00z GFS regarding this timeframe, the ridge out west is much more amplified on this run and the trough is deeper and has more energy. This looks liked it caved to the euro tonight. I bet mets can further explain on this.... EDIT: And there's your monster folks right there sitting and hammered the fishes. Whats screwing up the GFS is that extra, "lost" S/W that is left behind in the phase. This is the trailing piece that runs through Minnesota and Wisconsin around hr 168. Then look at hour 186 lol. that energy will probably hang back and form a even deeper trough like the ECM has. This was a HUGE step towards those "Fantalicious" 12z solutions! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's cold jan 3 with -20c 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It will be huge to see if the 00z euro can hang on to the solution it had at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This would be a lot more interesting if it wasn't 7 days out. I think the main thing is that we will get pretty cold at some point that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If the EURO maintains some semblance of a NE snowstorm through 12z tmw, then I'll start to consider it. Exactly. Go cautious and skeptical, or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I tend to agree. While the possibility can't be dismissed entirely, this could very well be one of those cold, dry troughs with some sort of wave or storm offshore. Perhaps a more modest storm closer to the coast is possible too. Because of the strong PNA ridging out west, I think an OTS solution is more likely than a GL or Apps runner. I never buy into an extreme model solution or two more than a few days out, unless it has consistency and near unanimous support from other models. Regardless, it is still something to watch as something *could* happen, but right now I'm not buying the K-U scenario depicted on today's Euro run. May as well...this winter has found every other way to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 May as well...this winter has found every other way to suck. At least we have a huge ridge out there so you can't write it off totally..but it's probably a good idea to approach it with a reasonable attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Very cold for at least part of next week. That's a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Very cold for at least part of next week. That's a change. Probably in and out quicker than a teen boy on prom night and unaccompanied by snow...like every other cold shot this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It will be interesting to see what the euro op run does. Storm or no storm, we have a big ridge out west, so it will get cold..now we just need a strong s/w embedded in the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Probably in and out quicker than a teen boy on prom night and unaccompanied by snow...like every other cold shot this season. This ones major league cold though. That's what interests me now. GEFS suggest it doesn't have staying power but not back to above normal either necessarily. We'll have some chances in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Can't see it...but sounds like the 00z euro is a miss. Oh well, see ya for 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I for one, am shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I for one, am shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0z ECM is a swing and a miss with next week's threat despite the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Plenty of fruitless, vintage 1980s cold, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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