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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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I know intensity forecasting can be a crap shoot (and of course the track can still change), but NHC currently brings in at strong cat 1 weak cat 2 strength (about Gloria's strength at landfall). I think this is reasonable. Simply not moving fast enough to come in stronger.

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why is everyone sicking out about the EURO? Looks like really moderate winds to me, am I wrong?

I don't think many people are taking it verbatim...its more that it helps keeps the consensus of all models set on a landfall somewhere in SNE. I agree that verbatim...a landfalling cane in S NJ is not gonna bring any widespread wind damage to the area.

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Neighbor has a generator and I cannot see having one...can't get on web, make calls, watch TV....it's summer it's warm, I have candles, water, canned goods, toilets will work. Go back to old school and live off the land by stealing my neighbors veggies for two weeks.

Nam supporting the Euro idea of the stronger ridge, weaker trough...may be like getting a vote of confidence from the Kim Jong-Il, or it may be a sign that we're going to see a marked shift left finally. I vote left, time for a ride.

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Macabre, but the "good" news is it's coming. Who it hits the hardest remains to be seen but I think a miss east is off the table.

NAM misses it with the trough entirely, does a EURO type deal I think where it will run way west into Jersey. What's amazing is there are noticeable changes at 6h on the 18z and those carry out throughout the run, so position around the 0z hour will be critical as will 0z init.

Would appear the threat is shifting west, will see if that holds but I feel better that my house will still be standing Monday am.

NAM isn't doing what the Euro is doing...it's doing in a different way. It takes the hurricane too far SW...which seems to be a bias that it has had all along. The NAM does not have the same favorable North Atlantic ridge east and northeast of New England like the Euro does. I would personally look at the NAM for only troughs etc. in the northern stream that could affect Irene...it has little to no use in tracking the hurricane itself.

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NAM isn't doing what the Euro is doing...it's doing in a different way. It takes the hurricane too far SW...which seems to be a bias that it has had all along. The NAM does not have the same favorable North Atlantic ridge east and northeast of New England like the Euro does. I would personally look at the NAM for only troughs etc. in the northern stream that could affect Irene...it has little to no use in tracking the hurricane itself.

At 500mb the NAM just shoved the 588 line way west this run beyond 60+ hours. The trough itself...further north maybe than the earlier run, but the ridge bulging so far west has pushed the storm further west. It may not do it the same way, but two runs in a row now it's jogged west and the last time that happened (at 12z) al the other models followed it. The early 18z on average appeared to have clustered more tightly on the NHC course (5pm version)...and the NHC themselves bumped the track west.

Sharper trough like the Euro no, more ridging, yes.

NHC track seems pretty reasonable for now.

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Ehhh. I think some are greatly exaggerating the effects of this for areas west of RI. I l grew up in eastern CT and vividly remember Bob. The forecast intensity at landfall and forecast track are very similar to Bob. Bob was no big deal at my house 40 mi from RI border. Rain and some wind. No power outage or anything. Gloria had a far greater impact than Bob in CT.

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Ehhh. I think some are greatly exaggerating the effects of this for areas west of RI. I l grew up in eastern CT and vividly remember Bob. The forecast intensity at landfall and forecast track are very similar to Bob. Bob was no big deal at my house 40 mi from RI border. Rain and some wind. No power outage or anything. Gloria had a far greater impact than Bob in CT.

Outside of new London county you're right but no two storms are the same and who's to say this follows the exact same track?

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why is everyone sicking out about the EURO? Looks like really moderate winds to me, am I wrong?

it kind of says to my untrained eye that the east trend is probably over

nhc latest disco took note of it too:

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THEWEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERNEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
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