Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Time for a new thread since we hit the 1000 post mark. Here is the link to the previous discussion. as of 5pm the NHC had Irene at 90mph sustained winds which was down from earlier today. 12z model runs for August 23rd have Irene clipping the Outer Banks of NC and basically heading in a northerly to northeastely direction impacting the LI/SNE coast. Landfall on the models is anywhere from NYC over to the Westerly area of RI so there is still pretty considerable spread. Given that we are still 5-6 days out there is not much we can do except monitor the models as they ingest newer data that will give s a better idea on where Irene will ultimately track. Impacts from this storm would start with the heavy rains leading to urban ans stream flooding. Secondary would be any storm surge if this system is moving slow enough and lastly would be damage from winds. My juju is flowin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Time for a new thread since we hit the 1000 post mark. Here is the link to the previous discussion. http://www.americanw...urricane-irene/ as of 5pm the NHC had Irene at 90mph sustained winds which was down from earlier today. 12z model runs for August 23rd have Irene clipping the Outer Banks of NC and basically heading in a northerly to northeastely direction impacting the LI/SNE coast. Landfall on the models is anywhere from NYC over to the Westerly area of RI so there is still pretty considerable spread. Given that we are still 5-6 days out there is not much we can do except monitor the models as they ingest newer data that will give s a better idea on where Irene will ultimately track. Impacts from this storm would start with the heavy rains leading to urban ans stream flooding. Secondary would be any storm surge if this system is moving slow enough and lastly would be damage from winds. My juju is flowin' Hey Bob, How much is your Hurricane Windstorm deductible? I'd much rather have my roof blown off by a storm that doesnt have a name, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There's a diurnal cycle of convection in the tropics, so you often see cyclone "pulse" up at night. I was under the impression diurnal convection cycles don't affect the core structures of mature cyclones. I mean, I know we tend to see flareups (and waning cycles) coinciding with the diurnal cycle, but I don't think diurnal convection alone can cause a Cat 2 hurricane to deepen. But then again, you're the pro. met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Continuing from the other thread and all my pansieness...haha I also can understand where you and many others are coming from, you want to see history, something extreme that hasn't happened in a while I get that, I'm like that with snow storms...the more feet the better, but I am literally ****ting bricks and live about 500 ft from the shore and in a VERY flood prone city. On the flip side, experiencing an earthquake and a hurricane in the same week, and a historical winter..well, that's a story you can hope to tell the kids and grand kids. See I rent an apartment and I am on the second floor, so my worries arent the same as everyone else who owns property...so you aren't a pansy...your concern is legit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I might be here Sunday.... stubborn parent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 5 day cone is now hitting SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hey Bob, How much is your Hurricane Windstorm deductible? I'd much rather have my roof blown off by a storm that doesnt have a name, I have no idea. My house is only 7 years old, so I hope it'll hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looking at the models, I really don't see how this gets to a cat 4. I think it has a reasonable chance at hitting LI and then SNE but as a tropical storm and a medium one at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was under the impression diurnal convection cycles don't affect the core structures of mature cyclones. I mean, I know we tend to see flareups (and waning cycles) coinciding with the diurnal cycle, but I don't think diurnal convection alone can cause a Cat 2 hurricane to deepen. But then again, you're the pro. met. I sense the shear can overwhelm any diurnal intensity cycle. Despite central pressure deepening today we haven't seen a pickup in the winds and we've got 10-20 kt of SW shear still to contend with. I think we'll have to wait until she's out of the shear area before we see any real performance out of her. That said, there's some 30 deg + water out ahead of her off the SC coast...wow could she blow up when she hits that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I sense the shear can overwhelm any diurnal intensity cycle. Despite central pressure deepening today we haven't seen a pickup in the winds and we've got 10-20 kt of SW shear still to contend with. I think we'll have to wait until she's out of the shear area before we see any real performance out of her. That said, there's some 30 deg + water out ahead of her off the SC coast...wow could she blow up when she hits that Yeah, but if the low itself is deepening, the winds have to increase at some point to try and fill the depression (simple meteorology). The low deepening means it's still intensifying despite the shear, and it's looking really good for some of the issues it's having. Keep in mind it's still relatively close to Hispaniola, so a lot of the disruption should start to clear out by tomorrow as it ducks away from Haiti and the DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Probably a stupid question, but does Hispaniola usually cause problems for hurricanes? If so, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Think this def is east of NYC, but I've been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Think this def is east of NYC, but I've been wrong before. I like how we joked months ago about me bringing the Bermuda hurricane mojo and you being out of town this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Probably a stupid question, but does Hispaniola usually cause problems for hurricanes? If so, why? Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I like how we joked months ago about me bringing the Bermuda hurricane mojo and you being out of town this weekend... Yes. Thumbs up to the first, axe in head to the second. I hope it brings some serious stuff your way. It's always nice to see the home area see good weather, I also missed in earthquake..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Mountains. O...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Think this def is east of NYC, but I've been wrong before. My current thinking is somewhere over central or eastern LI and then either SE`CT or Ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 O...thanks. Basically, land causes more surface friction than water, which disrupts the circulation of the storm and starts to spin it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I still have a hard time buying the euro track. I can't really disagree with the tropical models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eyewall just about closed now..Getting ready to explode tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Basically, land causes more surface friction than water, which disrupts the circulation of the storm and starts to spin it down. Plus it cannot gain the moisture/energy it needs from the land mass. Not sure how much this plays into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was under the impression diurnal convection cycles don't affect the core structures of mature cyclones. I mean, I know we tend to see flareups (and waning cycles) coinciding with the diurnal cycle, but I don't think diurnal convection alone can cause a Cat 2 hurricane to deepen. But then again, you're the pro. met. Considering the diurnal cycle as the only factor involved, it can help to intensify the core of the storm, as it achieves a larger and stronger CDO, and the circulation is tightened by vortex stretching (increasing divergence aloft stretches the rotating column, contracting the horizontal area of the column, and winds increase to conserve angular momentum. Also the stronger convection, and mass evacuation aloft lowers surface pressures in the cyclone. But yeah, other factors would trump this. I'm a pro met for other areas. Tropical cyclones are not my forte lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My current thinking is somewhere over central or eastern LI and then either SE`CT or Ri What happened to nyc or just east a few minutes ago? Ordinarily I would say climo climo climo, but this possible ridging north of the area really creates an interesting situation, interesting how the nhc cone allows such a western track still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What happened to nyc or just east a few minutes ago? Ordinarily I would say climo climo climo, but this possible ridging north of the area really creates an interesting situation, interesting how the nhc cone allows such a western track still. I still think that is possible over NYC as the Op Euro and ensembles show, but think it will be slightly east of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What happened to nyc or just east a few minutes ago? Ordinarily I would say climo climo climo, but this possible ridging north of the area really creates an interesting situation, interesting how the nhc cone allows such a western track still. The NHC is conservative and slow to adjust since models will move east only to move back west and vice versa. Remember that they were thinking the SC/NC area just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Plus it cannot gain the moisture/energy it needs from the land mass. Not sure how much this plays into it. But wouldn't this happen over any type of land? Is it just because it was thought it was going to go over Hispaniola that it would get torn apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still think that is possible over NYC as the Op Euro and ensembles show, but think it will be slightly east of that Yeah its tough, climo says east, but I still would not be suprised to see this take a left hand turn over the Va capes and go up the Deleware, timing and strength of the trough/ridging is everything. Its organizing fairly well right now, outflow is being established much better on the nw/sw quadrants, much less dry air downsloping off Hisp getting entrained into the core, its looking good right now will be traversing some very warm waters with excellent upper air conditions over the next 3 days...............should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still have a hard time buying the euro track. I can't really disagree with the tropical models right now. Me too, and the Euro was into Florida not long ago and has been consistently left of consensus while shifting east each run to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL went west and inland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hurricane center 8pm track forecast is east of the 5pm...continues the trend shown in this graphic. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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