free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL went west and inland lol That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Me too, and the Euro was into Florida not long ago and has been consistently left of consensus while shifting east each run to some degree. Figured a TC would bring you out of hiding..lol. Anyways it's 5 days out so I suppose nothing is off the table, just looked suspect to me. The whole 500mb pattern is also not classic at all which is weird to me as well, but I suppose the sample size of SNE canes is rather small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 EPic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Although NHC makes a point about a weak trough that tries to bend it back north again, which may play a role with the ECMWF forecast. Yeesh, what a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Figured a TC would bring you out of hiding..lol. Anyways it's 5 days out so I suppose nothing is off the table, just looked suspect to me. The whole 500mb pattern is also not classic at all which is weird to me as well, but I suppose the sample size of SNE canes is rather small. Norcross pointed out the reason why it comes north and not NE and out. He said the 2nd trough(over Alaska now) has shifted west on almost all of the modelling which in turn brings Irene much farther north and west than it would if the trough was further east of the Lakes...he also pointed out that the trough is lifting out more to the north than it is to the NE which again allows a farther west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 satellite looking a lot more impressive. Cat 2, then 3 by AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hurricane center 8pm track forecast is east of the 5pm...continues the trend shown in this graphic. http://www.nhc.noaa....9/loop_5W.shtml 5 day cone looks dead nuts on from 5pm to 8pm. Maybe even a tic k west up here for the 5 day cone but nothing truly discernible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Me too, and the Euro was into Florida not long ago and has been consistently left of consensus while shifting east each run to some degree. I still owe you dinner. This one has huge potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Figured a TC would bring you out of hiding..lol. Anyways it's 5 days out so I suppose nothing is off the table, just looked suspect to me. The whole 500mb pattern is also not classic at all which is weird to me as well, but I suppose the sample size of SNE canes is rather small. Rare to see very few way east outliers. They'd have to be botching the synoptics pretty badly for this to be a wide miss...going to be a squeaker or a real problem. That animated graphic shows how significant the errors have been in the forecast path all along. Even at a few days the NHC track has been too far SW and now west apparently. Hard to think that trend suddenly reverses but maybe it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Norcross pointed out the reason why it comes north and not NE and out. He said the 2nd trough(over Alaska now) has shifted west on almost all of the modelling which in turn brings Irene much farther north and west than it would if the trough was further east of the Lakes...he also pointed out that the trough is lifting out more to the north than it is to the NE which again allows a farther west track Eh, the trend has been for models to be too weak with nrn tier troughing as well, so that might cast some doubt on that argument. It is possible the wrn Atlantic ridge ends up a little stronger and the trough in the se tries to capture the storm and shove it into NYC, but I just don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 5 day cone looks dead nuts on from 5pm to 8pm. Maybe even a tic k west up here for the 5 day cone but nothing truly discernible. Sure some folks like osu know the answer but I don't believe they alter the forecast track with the intermediate advisories other than short range corrections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eh, the trend has been for models to be too weak with nrn tier troughing as well, so that might cast some doubt on that argument. It is possible the wrn Atlantic ridge ends up a little stronger and the trough in the se tries to capture the storm and shove it into NYC, but I just don't know about that. I dunno. I think the whole key to this and it's track up our way is that 2nd trough..If it's west over the western lakes..it comes up into SNE..if it shifts east over the next 2 days then we deal with a sideswipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eh, the trend has been for models to be too weak with nrn tier troughing as well, so that might cast some doubt on that argument. It is possible the wrn Atlantic ridge ends up a little stronger and the trough in the se tries to capture the storm and shove it into NYC, but I just don't know about that. If this hits while I'm gone...it might as well go for the goal and pull a tip LI express. None of this NYC or BM crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still owe you dinner. This one has huge potential! When I'm living in your basement in a week after this storm blows my roof off we'll be even. We'll be like the hurricane family in Curb Your Enthusiasm. Bob, cone looks like it's shifting east still down to the south though over the carolinas and the guess track is nudging east. Particularly look south of the outer banks, they hopped it east a decent amount down that way while leaving the cone more intact up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 satellite looking a lot more impressive. Cat 2, then 3 by AM? I still think this has Cat 4 potential tomorrow morning and afternoon. It looks like it's one of the most primed storms in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anybody else gonna be in RI for the storm? I live in Cumberland.. but gonna be in Wakefield. Girlfriend lives less then a mile from East Matunuk. Havent decided if were gonna stay there or go to the Cape..... Gonna be a very fun Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The other thing is don't necessarily go by MSLP on the global models, especially the GFS. Euro is better with its resolution, but I would rather go by the intensity trend and not necessarily intensity numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I hope it goes out to sea..... OBX will be obliterated. Particularly south of the inlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL might be the Ron Washington of tropical models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I hope it goes out to sea..... OBX will be obliterated. Particularly south of the inlet. Yea me too.. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL might be the Ron Washington of tropical models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 snowNH should host a radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eyewall just about closed now..Getting ready to explode tonite i have my doubts about her exploding till she gets about a hundred or so more miles NW of hispanola.....Because until then she won't get a nice deep southerly inflow channel that isn't downsloping off mountains to south. i think she putz's around near 965 tonite then sometime tommorrow around noon BOOM! perhaps i'm wrong but i'm just basing this on getting some nice moist southerly inflow....don't think it will explode sucking in down sloping winds off 8000's foot mountains...but it's far enough off shore to sustain itself and a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I keep telling folks that it could be that long and they just don't believe me. Not imby, but some folks. Agreed. We lose trees like crazy around these parts with G50-60 mph from a 5 min downburst. A low end cat 1 cane coming in at the coast say in Ri with 40-50G60-70mph for 4-7 hours in the interior would be ice-storm level in terms of outages for much of new england. It's a big deal, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anybody else gonna be in RI for the storm? I live in Cumberland.. but gonna be in Wakefield. Girlfriend lives less then a mile from East Matunuk. Havent decided if were gonna stay there or go to the Cape..... Gonna be a very fun Sunday. someone go down to RUGGLES infront of the mansions at salve regina sunday .....take some pics ...Damn damn damn that i'm missing this....25 foot breakers will happen there...it's the best big wave spot on the east coast bar none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 a nice link to follow the conditions in turks and caicos as they go down hill over next 6 hours is here a weather bug station or two ...still functioning for now http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=IPROVIDE8 best gusts to 68 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agreed. We lose trees like crazy around these parts with G50-60 mph from a 5 min downburst. A low end cat 1 cane coming in at the coast say in Ri with 40-50G60-70mph for 4-7 hours in the interior would be ice-storm level in terms of outages for much of new england. It's a big deal, Yeah I was thinking that yesterday...with the foliage on the trees, prolonged >50 kts would be a huge problem...combined with a lot of rain for softer ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My sister's wedding is at the Pomponesset Inn in New Seabury Saturday.... open bar if anyone wants to come chase there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Damn acorns everywhere, swept the deck, driveway when I left Fri, covered. Picture Kev getting pelted with acorns in 60 knot winds, accumulation drifts with his driveway sculpted like this past winter only with nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How would Wiz keep up with the reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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