January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco III

[MJHUB]

You said you work in transportation....Will you be plowing, sanding? Public/private? This storm very well may feature a lot more liquid than the previous two big storms this season and PVD/Seekonk is probably on the fence of a significant/plowable event.

no I move freight all over the country/ world. these storms are the worst thing possible. so its either going to be last week's slop fest on steroids or some good snow. its a love hate thing with snow for me. work becomes a nightmare but I love snow. to get more snow then rain i would guess based on what you said I need a tic east for snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will and Ray are probably holding hands together right now. They must love where they sit with this.

I'm there with them

[Organizing Low]

there starting to take down snowbanks in my town now..

when they do that up here, i get very

[ineedsnow]

yeah seen a few around town already!! Rain and sleet should be south of us were in a sweet spot for this.

in Agawam? Why would that be? I have a feeling we won't be getting tooo much more with all this talk of rain and sleet and warm temps.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm there with them

You have a higher risk for sleet, but you are still in a good spot.

[Dan]

not loading for me either...don't know why. After clicking a few more US sites, I suspect they may get generated in alphabetical order. Give it another few minutes and try again.

Just go to the main site http://coolwx.com then click then click on horuly model forecasts, chose GFS and the current run, then click on the states.

[PWMan]

there starting to take down snowbanks in my town now..

My wife commented the other day on how it was nice that the plows had come back through and made "sidewalks" by flattening out the portion of the snowbank closest to the street. I explained to her that it wasn't quite so altruistic; they just pushed things back to make room for the next one. Turns out she had never realized why the "flattening" was done.

[COPO]

yeah seen a few around town already!! Rain and sleet should be south of us were in a sweet spot for this.

Man I hope so.. Lets see what the EURO says..

[Kbosch]

OK, here we go. First BDR GFS 00z then BDR GFS 12z:

110126/1800Z  66  05012KT  33.4F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    59|  0| 41
110126/2100Z  69  04016KT  32.5F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.091|| 0.10     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
110127/0000Z  72  03022KT  30.9F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.091|| 0.19     0.00|| 0.00    0.10|| 0.10     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  75  01021KT  29.7F  SNOW     7:1| 1.5|| 1.5    0.220|| 0.41     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.10   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  78  35021KT  28.2F  SNOW    16:1| 5.9|| 7.5    0.366|| 0.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.10   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  81  35017KT  29.1F  SNOW    11:1| 3.2||10.7    0.299|| 1.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.10   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  84  32015KT  26.6F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1||10.7    0.008|| 1.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.10   100|  0|  0

110126/1800Z  54  04012KT  31.6F  SNPL     6:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.039|| 0.04     0.03|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.00    66| 27|  7
110126/2100Z  57  04017KT  30.9F  PL       0:1| 0.0|| 0.2    0.071|| 0.11     0.14|| 0.17    0.00|| 0.00     5| 92|  3
110127/0000Z  60  03021KT  30.6F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.2    0.213|| 0.32     0.00|| 0.17    0.22|| 0.22     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  01030KT  28.6F  SNPL     4:1| 0.6|| 0.9    0.177|| 0.50     0.22|| 0.39    0.00|| 0.22    37| 63|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36024KT  29.8F  SNOW    15:1| 6.9|| 7.8    0.469|| 0.97     0.00|| 0.39    0.00|| 0.22   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  33020KT  28.8F  SNOW    12:1| 3.3||11.1    0.268|| 1.24     0.00|| 0.39    0.00|| 0.22   100|  0|  0

We sure go to town after the change to all snow. At least we nearly stay all frozen.

[OKpowdah]

Any thoughts Sam, Or going to wait on the euro?

Waiting for the Euro. I want to see the Euro hold, or maybe nudge west back toward yesterday's 12z run.

Right now though, I'm looking at moisture convergence and the axis of deformation on the 12z GFS which points to a second snowfall maximum running from W CT through C MA, C NH, into interior S ME.

[TalcottWx]

I hope there isnt a sharp nw cutoff like last storm.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

I keep saying..I should be on tv..I just need someone to give me a chance

Make a tape. You've got nothing to lose. AMS doesn't mean everything. He is good will find his way to a tv. This business is all about eyeballs. Local tv is wilting on the vine as ratings continue dropping so they're always looking for someone who can move the needle. Keith Olbermann is an A$$ but he's always worked for the last 30 years because he has the pipes and the delivery.

[weatherwiz]

GFS looks pretty good, NAM seems to be getting there, Ukie looked pretty sweet...what was it like for QPF totals?

[weathafella]

That coolwx gave BOS:

Also,,,GGEM is a crushing! A bombing low and WAY colder than any prior runs. This is going to be a good storm. I understand I may need to helmut up for a few hours but in the end I'm going to have a big addition to the piles.

[Kbosch]

HFD:

110126/2100Z  57  04011KT  29.3F  SNPL     5:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.039|| 0.04     0.04|| 0.04    0.00|| 0.00    48| 52|  0
110127/0000Z  60  03018KT  27.9F  SNPL     1:1| 0.2|| 0.4    0.157|| 0.20     0.24|| 0.28    0.00|| 0.00    25| 75|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  36020KT  27.1F  SNOW     5:1| 1.3|| 1.7    0.280|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.28    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36023KT  27.9F  SNOW    15:1| 7.2|| 8.9    0.472|| 0.95     0.00|| 0.28    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  33017KT  28.9F  SNOW    13:1| 4.5||13.4    0.343|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.28    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  31014KT  25.7F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1||13.5    0.012|| 1.30     0.00|| 0.28    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

PVD:

110126/1800Z  54  03009KT  31.5F  SNOW    16:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.024|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/2100Z  57  03012KT  31.3F SNZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.098|| 0.12     0.12|| 0.12    0.04|| 0.04    25| 38| 37
110127/0000Z  60  03017KT  31.3F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.201|| 0.32     0.00|| 0.12    0.21|| 0.25     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  02020KT  32.0F   ICE     0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.134|| 0.46     0.00|| 0.12    0.00|| 0.25     0|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36026KT  30.9F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.480|| 0.94     0.00|| 0.12    0.50|| 0.75     0|  0|100
110127/0900Z  69  36027KT  25.9F  SNOW    11:1| 7.4|| 7.8    0.689|| 1.63     0.00|| 0.12    0.00|| 0.75   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  32015KT  27.5F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 8.2    0.039|| 1.67     0.00|| 0.12    0.00|| 0.75   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/1500Z  75  30013KT  27.0F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 8.3    0.008|| 1.67     0.00|| 0.12    0.00|| 0.75   100|  0|  0

ORH (whoa!):

110126/2100Z  57  04012KT  25.7F  SNOW     9:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.024|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0000Z  60  03018KT  24.4F  SNOW    19:1| 1.9|| 2.1    0.102|| 0.13     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  02022KT  24.6F  SNOW     7:1| 1.8|| 3.9    0.268|| 0.39     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36027KT  22.8F  SNOW    14:1| 5.2|| 9.1    0.358|| 0.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  36021KT  24.3F  SNOW    19:1| 8.9||18.0    0.461|| 1.21     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  33015KT  22.8F  SNOW    10:1| 0.7||18.7    0.067|| 1.28     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/1500Z  75  31013KT  22.8F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1||18.7    0.008|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

BOS:

110127/0000Z  60  03016KT  32.4F  SNOW    19:1| 1.6|| 1.8    0.087|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  03019KT  33.1F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 1.8    0.197|| 0.30     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    36|  0| 64
110127/0600Z  66  02029KT  31.5F  SNOW     7:1| 1.3|| 3.1    0.185|| 0.49     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  36025KT  27.1F  SNOW    15:1| 8.7||11.8    0.587|| 1.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  34021KT  28.8F  SNOW     6:1| 1.3||13.1    0.213|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/1500Z  75  31016KT  27.1F  SNOW    10:1| 0.3||13.4    0.031|| 1.32     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

[SnowMan]

I know we are still a ways out, but when will the TV mets start drawing more attention to the storm. I know a couple have said there will be little to no impact...

[CoastalWx]

Check out how those ratios increase as the ULL approaches. That's the time where things could go nuts further east, if the GFS is to be believed.

[kmcfarland99]

I hope this continues coming NW, looks like a decent storm

Not too far NW, we'd like to stay all snow here in Portland/Scarborough.

The latest GFS had 1" QPF, all snow here.

Also see: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kpwm.dat

[bobbutts]

Bring it.

goes out with a bang at the end in pvd.. snow with .7" le in 3 hrs

[MaineJayhawk]

Any thoughts Sam, Or going to wait on the euro?

Looking good for us. Eagerly awaiting the Doc. My co-workers pestered me about this storm, wanted me to give an accumulation so I threw out 6-10 with a caveat to ask me on Wednesday for a final call. After today's modeling, I say that was conservative. However, this could still go into the poop bucket.

[dryslot]

Waiting for the Euro. I want to see the Euro hold, or maybe nudge west back toward yesterday's 12z run.Right now though, I'm looking at moisture convergence and the axis of deformation on the 12z GFS which points to a second snowfall maximum running from W CT through C MA, C NH, into interior S ME.

I agree, I still think we may see some more adjustments with this as we get in close like the boxing day storm had......

[Kbosch]

Have some more...

HVN:

 110126/1800Z  54  04011KT  30.6F  SNPL     8:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.055|| 0.06     0.03|| 0.03    0.00|| 0.00    71| 24|  5
110126/2100Z  57  04016KT  29.7F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.087|| 0.14     0.13|| 0.17    0.02|| 0.02     9| 68| 23
110127/0000Z  60  03021KT  29.1F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.4    0.201|| 0.34     0.00|| 0.17    0.21|| 0.23     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  01027KT  27.1F  SNPL     2:1| 0.5|| 0.9    0.224|| 0.57     0.34|| 0.50    0.00|| 0.23    25| 75|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36023KT  28.2F  SNOW    14:1| 8.9|| 9.8    0.618|| 1.19     0.00|| 0.50    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  33020KT  27.9F  SNOW    12:1| 3.2||13.0    0.268|| 1.45     0.00|| 0.50    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  32017KT  26.2F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1||13.1    0.008|| 1.46     0.00|| 0.50    0.00|| 0.23   100|  0|  0

BDL:

 110126/2100Z  57  04010KT  28.8F  SNOW     9:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.024|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0000Z  60  03017KT  27.0F  SNOW     9:1| 1.2|| 1.4    0.126|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  36019KT  26.4F  SNOW     6:1| 1.8|| 3.1    0.315|| 0.46     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36023KT  27.5F  SNOW    16:1| 5.6|| 8.7    0.358|| 0.82     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  33015KT  28.2F  SNOW    13:1| 3.2||11.9    0.244|| 1.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  31014KT  24.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1||12.0    0.008|| 1.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

MHT:

 110127/0000Z  60  02012KT  25.7F  SNOW    11:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z  63  01016KT  26.4F  SNOW    10:1| 1.6|| 1.7    0.157|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  36021KT  24.8F  SNOW    14:1| 2.4|| 4.1    0.173|| 0.34     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  35017KT  25.9F  SNOW    17:1| 5.9||10.0    0.346|| 0.69     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  31013KT  25.2F  SNOW    10:1| 0.7||10.7    0.075|| 0.76     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/1500Z  75  30014KT  24.4F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1||10.8    0.012|| 0.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

PWM:

 110127/0300Z  63  02019KT  27.5F  SNOW    18:1| 0.6|| 0.6    0.035|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z  66  01023KT  24.3F  SNOW     7:1| 1.2|| 1.9    0.173|| 0.21     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z  69  36025KT  23.5F  SNOW    15:1| 4.7|| 6.6    0.319|| 0.53     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1200Z  72  36023KT  25.9F  SNOW    13:1| 3.5||10.1    0.264|| 0.79     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/1500Z  75  33017KT  26.4F  SNOW    11:1| 0.5||10.6    0.051|| 0.84     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/1800Z  78  31014KT  27.9F  SNOW    15:1| 0.2||10.8    0.012|| 0.85     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

[Ginx snewx]

Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas?

We were secretly in that camp last Wed, your west concerns seem to be fading faster than a crack head porn stars looks.

[moneypitmike]

Have some more...

Can you humor me and put up AQW and RUT?

[Kbosch]

Check out how those ratios increase as the ULL approaches. That's the time where things could go nuts further east, if the GFS is to be believed.

Oh yeah...and Will does win. That's what happens if you stay all snow in SNE with this one. Awesome.

[CoastalWx]

BUFKIT looks nice after 03z Thursday for many areas.

[Kbosch]

Can you humor me and put up AQW and RUT?

Can't get em for some reason, bah, sorry!

[amarshall]

no I move freight all over the country/ world. these storms are the worst thing possible. so its either going to be last week's slop fest on steroids or some good snow. its a love hate thing with snow for me. work becomes a nightmare but I love snow. to get more snow then rain i would guess based on what you said I need a tic east for snow.

Pray transportation?

[Typhoon Tip]

Not that I have a whole ton of faith in any given GFS run these days, but seeing the steady migration toward the Euro does lend credence.

That said ... the appeal of having 2ndary and tertiary vort lobes passing just under LI with an escaping coastal bomb suggests for me that some linerging/lag-back llv trough may situate with some perhaps grains and light snow between said low and approaching rigorous dynamical clipper system. Which by the way, don't be surprised if a swath of 2-4" results from that over the weekend.

[moneypitmike]

Can't get em for some reason, bah, sorry!

GC, ftl. You can't get there from here.....