Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't see a reason to be extremely bullish near BOS to HFD right now, only because of the IP. Harv's 6-12 is probably a great foundation to build on. I do see some positives...namely the CCB that models develop over sne, and position of mid level lows that could lead to such a great ccb and banding. H5 track is classic. If models trend colder or hold steady, you can always go up. I know you know this, but just saying to others. Of course this is true then there is the other spectrum I just mentioned to Pete. Upton has my place in a teether with talk of heavy rain and frzra in Ledyard Ct, um not conservative in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS clown map... 12-16'' from .75'' of QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Fired it up! New discussion thread http://www.americanw...storm-disco-iv/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice clown map....you know it's a good winter, when: You're in a "screwzone" and you get 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RE: GFS clown map, I gaurentee that this will verify, solely because of the gradient through Cheshire Co. It's a practically a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS clown map... Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Scott, I think why I misinterpret you sometimes is that even though you may think BM, you will challenge folks to point out why the outliers are wrong and it's easy for someone who swings by to misperceive that as you supporting them....I'll have to keep that in mind. Nothing wrong with doing that, it's an asset to the DISCO, as opposed to just vacuously tossing an outlier aside. Crap hit the back button It's not really challenging people Ray, I'm just curious to what drives the thought process. I figure maybe I'm missing something is all. With the 12z NAM we all knew it was bonkers just based off the ML, as it came back into line at 18z aloft - it will be interesting to see if it's still east tonight if it is still within the "average" of other models aloft. One thing that I have been trying to figure out all day is the idea that this one will come back NW based on previoius trends. Mainly because I was told over and over again - and correctly so, that the bust of all models being too far NW right up to h6 on the warning system between the blizzards meant nothing later on. We have a much different pattern this time and we're still all thinking it'll come NW. Those are the things I'm trying to iron out by asking questions... I think there's been just as many systems in the last 24-36 months coming up the coast from the deep south that ended up fragmented and as Tip would say "shredded pieces of crap" in the end. Not likely to be a shredded system this time, but I do wonder about the moisture split for a time. Sometimes I'll be very direct like when I said NCEP was wrong for tossing their two models that showed the big hit when they claimed errors. That was easy to see, wasn't a slight to them at all, but I felt they were pretty wrong and it worked out. At the same time my thought process that the "NAM was wrong on the NW trend last time it didn't happen" wasn't right with the subsequent system. One thing I have seen this year is that what would seem to be "larger" errors at 5h....don't end up amounting to the same sized shifts we'd think a t the surface. Anyway...,good thoughts Ray and you are right I'm generally just feeling out the conversation. For the record on this track I'm not sure that I feel it will track OVER the BM. That's just kind of the mean, I think we still see the "extreme" solution but the cone has narrowed...IE we're about as likely to see it 30-50 miles NW of the BM as SE....and either is probably more likely than the intermediate track. No strong feelings either way, hopeful that based on location of the s/w features at 0z we get a good sampling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not so sure. All these system have been in the northern stream, and have shifted NW as a result of verifying deeper than modeled. In this case, we are dealing with a pure southern stream system. Not positive, but I'd say the northern stream is just a hinderance right now. And a deepening trend there might actually trend toward sweeping the whole thing east quicker. This is a good point, and I thought about that. However, I think because of some of the reasons that I mentioned..I could see at least a slight jog nw with this southern system. The nrn stream may actually be the reason this isn't turning into a landfall at BDR, like Ryan said. I'll be perfectly happy if it stays like this, but a tick nw is in my mind for now. As I told Scott, I'm watching the nrn stream system as well and am aware that it may flex its muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crap hit the back button It's not really challenging people Ray, I'm just curious to what drives the thought process. I figure maybe I'm missing something is all. With the 12z NAM we all knew it was bonkers just based off the ML, as it came back into line at 18z aloft - it will be interesting to see if it's still east tonight if it is still within the "average" of other models aloft. One thing that I have been trying to figure out all day is the idea that this one will come back NW based on previoius trends. Mainly because I was told over and over again - and correctly so, that the bust of all models being too far NW right up to h6 on the warning system between the blizzards meant nothing later on. We have a much different pattern this time and we're still all thinking it'll come NW. Those are the things I'm trying to iron out by asking questions... I think there's been just as many systems in the last 24-36 months coming up the coast from the deep south that ended up fragmented and as Tip would say "shredded pieces of crap" in the end. Not likely to be a shredded system this time, but I do wonder about the moisture split for a time. Sometimes I'll be very direct like when I said NCEP was wrong for tossing their two models that showed the big hit when they claimed errors. That was easy to see, wasn't a slight to them at all, but I felt they were pretty wrong and it worked out. At the same time my thought process that the "NAM was wrong on the NW trend last time it didn't happen" wasn't right with the subsequent system. One thing I have seen this year is that what would seem to be "larger" errors at 5h....don't end up amounting to the same sized shifts we'd think a t the surface. Anyway...,good thoughts Ray and you are right I'm generally just feeling out the conversation. For the record on this track I'm not sure that I feel it will track OVER the BM. That's just kind of the mean, I think we still see the "extreme" solution but the cone has narrowed...IE we're about as likely to see it 30-50 miles NW of the BM as SE....and either is probably more likely than the intermediate track. No strong feelings either way, hopeful that based on location of the s/w features at 0z we get a good sampling! Yea, that is all I meant...."challenege" was probably too strong of a word, but it's good to encourage folks to back up assertions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is a good point, and I thought about that. However, I think because of some of the reasons that I mentioned..I could see at least a slight jog nw with this southern system. The nrn stream may actually be the reason this isn't turning into a landfall at BDR, like Ryan said. I'll be perfectly happy if it stays like this, but a tick nw is in my mind for now. As I told Scott, I'm watching the nrn stream system as well and am aware that it may flex its muscle. If you were me, would you want a tic nw or stay over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you were me, would you want a tic nw or stay over the BM Honestly, I think you would be just fine with a track like that. I know the 18z GFS may bother you, but the euro looked awesome for you as is. I guess if you want to be picky, maybe a 15 mile jog nw, but I don't think it would greatly improve the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Honestly, I think you would be just fine with a track like that. I know the 18z GFS may bother you, but the euro looked awesome for you as is. I guess if you want to be picky, maybe a 15 mile jog nw, but I don't think it would greatly improve the outcome. That is what I was thinking.....18z GFS had nothing to do with track issues, it was just a subtle fluke that could happen, but I'll bet against it. Every now and then I will get Dec 2003ed, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Head on over gang. You can add your thoughts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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