moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice to see this amidst the possibility a little more on on Wed/Thurs: WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 402 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ZERO TO 6 ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURE RISING TO AROUND 10 ABOVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Scott what do you think is going to drive the tick NW? It appears everyone aside of Channel 7 is being pretty cautious at this stage. All but one storm did tick NW inside of 48, but I know everyone always tells me "not the same situation" and I think pretty clearly this is not the same situation as any previous storm this year. Harv doesnt seem to be buying the far NW extent either, he has zero where 7 has 10-15 in parts of VT. Based on Harv's maps he doesn't seem to believe the NW shift at all, at this point. As usual, Harvey's forecast looks spot on to me. I was thinking 6-12 interior CT with 3-6 for the southeastern 1/2 of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Scott what do you think is going to drive the tick NW? It appears everyone aside of Channel 7 is being pretty cautious at this stage. All but one storm did tick NW inside of 48, but I know everyone always tells me "not the same situation" and I think pretty clearly this is not the same situation as any previous storm this year. It's the nature of these things. Southern origin systems more often than not tick nw. We don't have strong confluence, somewhat of a retreating high, and latent heat from convection sometimes helps sharpen the downstream ridge. Also, it will want to ride north along the baroclinic zone from HSE to east of the Delmarva. I don't really see a mechanism to shove this east..however, I am watching that system in the northern stream. It's not out of the question that it tries to keep this near the BM or a hair se. As of now, I don't expect a big jump nw, but something like a 20-30 mile tick nw from the euro op is not impossible. I don't want this nw tick at all, but expect it. Hopefully, it's not a big jump nw to ACK. I don't think it will go that far, but perhaps something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. I hope so because--NAM notwithstanding--we've been experiencing a day's worth of slow shifts SE. 2.6/-13 Do you chew your nails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Scott what do you think is going to drive the tick NW? It appears everyone aside of Channel 7 is being pretty cautious at this stage. All but one storm did tick NW inside of 48, but I know everyone always tells me "not the same situation" and I think pretty clearly this is not the same situation as any previous storm this year. Harv doesnt seem to be buying the far NW extent either, he has zero where 7 has 10-15 in parts of VT. Based on Harv's maps he doesn't seem to believe the NW shift at all, at this point. The situation is a potent, moisture laden Miller A from the GOM and I would bet a tic nw in the final hours, but we'll see. One thing you always do is back your stances with data and charts, so don't get me wrong...I see your points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice to see this amidst the possibility a little more on on Wed/Thurs: WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 402 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ZERO TO 6 ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURE RISING TO AROUND 10 ABOVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. oops. already -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's the nature of these things. Southern origin systems more often than not tick nw. We don't have strong confluence, somewhat of a retreating high, and latent heat from convection sometimes helps sharpen the downstream ridge. Also, it will want to ride north along the baroclinic zone from HSE to east of the Delmarva. I don't really see a mechanism to shove this east..however, I am watching that system in the northern stream. It's not out of the question that it tries to keep this near the BM or a hair se. As of now, I don't expect a big jump nw, but something like a 20-30 mile tick nw from the euro op is not impossible. I don't want this nw tick at all, but expect it. Hopefully, it's not a big jump nw to ACK. I don't think it will go that far, but perhaps something in between. Yeah this could be an unusual GOM storm that winds up not ticking NW because of what's going on with the northern stream. That northern stream not phasing with the GOM vort max is good because we won't get a GGEM solution of a couple days ago but it could be too far out of phase to tick a bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As usual, Harvey's forecast looks spot on to me. I was thinking 6-12 interior CT with 3-6 for the southeastern 1/2 of the state. The oldest line forecasters in Boston are all on the conservative side. PB has a moderate/major snow well into CNE/NNE where Harv has zip. Notice out at the GC too, Harv much more conservative. I didn't catch where he expected the track to end up. IMO plenty if signs this will be a dual structure until after it gets beyond HAT. There's going to be a fine line, as I no longer doubt that there will be a very pronounced initial flareup of moisture and that we'll probably see a fairly pronounced split in the moisture off the east coast in 48hrsish. I like Harv's map for right now too, good medium approach pending more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As usual, Harvey's forecast looks spot on to me. I was thinking 6-12 interior CT with 3-6 for the southeastern 1/2 of the state. And the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right now today after watching the great and good TV Mets prior to the big storms this winter, they are just about where they always are two days prior, conservative and wishy washy, like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nat weather service Hazardous Weather Outlook Wednesday: A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow likely between 1pm and 4pm, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet after 4pm. High near 35. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday Night: Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 10pm, then freezing rain and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Low around 24. North wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. tot of 1 to 2 inches of snow right that downi hope they are wrong 1-2" QPF - post less read more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And the SW? Basically 3-6 southeast of I-84 and 6-12 along and NW of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Basically 3-6 southeast of I-84 and 6-12 along and NW of there Ahhh thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right now today after watching the great and good TV Mets prior to the big storms this winter, they are just about where they always are two days prior, conservative and wishy washy, like it lol yeah a lot about this one makes me sort of cautious. That said this storm does have fabulous potential with it with models really showing a cranking CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow LOL where is Tippy, he would fit right in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL where is Tippy, he would fit right in If posters were models: Will-ECMWF Scooter- ECMWF ens mean TIP- crazy Unc Kev- DGEX Messenger- NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. Not so sure. All these system have been in the northern stream, and have shifted NW as a result of verifying deeper than modeled. In this case, we are dealing with a pure southern stream system. Not positive, but I'd say the northern stream is just a hinderance right now. And a deepening trend there might actually trend toward sweeping the whole thing east quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right now today after watching the great and good TV Mets prior to the big storms this winter, they are just about where they always are two days prior, conservative and wishy washy, like it The skiing is stellar. Waiting for this thing is like watching paint dry. I was talking to a local Highway Dept. Supt. today. He said the equipment has been gettting a good work out and today they were staying in the garage doing repairs/maintenance. He was less than enthusiastic about the prospect for more snow but had been adviseed it's coming. " What can you do, it'll be like this until May." Best thing I've heard all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow tic tic tic then BOOM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol yeah a lot about this one makes me sort of cautious. That said this storm does have fabulous potential with it with models really showing a cranking CCB. I don't see a reason to be extremely bullish near BOS to HFD right now, only because of the IP. Harv's 6-12 is probably a great foundation to build on. I do see some positives...namely the CCB that models develop over sne, and position of mid level lows that could lead to such a great ccb and banding. H5 track is classic. If models trend colder or hold steady, you can always go up. I know you know this, but just saying to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 OT: Im already below my forecasted low of 7. Standing at 5.6 and dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's the nature of these things. Southern origin systems more often than not tick nw. We don't have strong confluence, somewhat of a retreating high, and latent heat from convection sometimes helps sharpen the downstream ridge. Also, it will want to ride north along the baroclinic zone from HSE to east of the Delmarva. I don't really see a mechanism to shove this east..however, I am watching that system in the northern stream. It's not out of the question that it tries to keep this near the BM or a hair se. As of now, I don't expect a big jump nw, but something like a 20-30 mile tick nw from the euro op is not impossible. I don't want this nw tick at all, but expect it. Hopefully, it's not a big jump nw to ACK. I don't think it will go that far, but perhaps something in between. As always thanks Scott. I do think a SE tick of a small magnitude is possible too. (below) The situation is a potent, moisture laden Miller A from the GOM and I would bet a tic nw in the final hours, but we'll see. One thing you always do is back your stances with data and charts, so don't get me wrong...I see your points. Ray I'm not really feeling it either way, IE, not much of an opinion yet other than around the BM which I think everyone is in agreement on at this point. I could see it ticking either way. If the split nature is real to the moisture I think we may actually see a little hook, a NE NNE N track before it rips out under us where we see almost a dual low center where one doesnt become dominant until it's ESE of Cape Cod. Yeah this could be an unusual GOM storm that winds up not ticking NW because of what's going on with the northern stream. That northern stream not phasing with the GOM vort max is good because we won't get a GGEM solution of a couple days ago but it could be too far out of phase to tick a bit too far east. That's the rub. Models are having a little bit of a tough time figuring out what's going to go on there. -- Prior to this recent string of storms we quite frequently have seen in the last few years this split nature. Many times we sat here snapping because we had a tiny poorly modeled vm that formed ahead of the main feature and helped to divert moisture east. So far there's no signs that this is a permanent problem, we have a bowling ball which should obliterate the dual lobe structure to the moisture. That said no doubt that's some of the spread we see across ensemble members etc as some want to focus east under the first band. I'm wide open to any wobble in either direction at this point but I'm beginning to feel we were less close in the last 36 hours to the ultimate solution than we may have all thought. If it plays out right we see the warm air kind of cutoff by the eastern extension and then the entire thing blows up to our SSE which would eliminate mixing issues for all of you aside of down here. I may be wrong, but I feel this split structure sticks up through the Delmarva anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow We all know the end of this story.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If posters were models: Will-ECMWF Scooter- ECMWF ens mean TIP- crazy Unc Kev- DGEX Messenger- NOGAPS And you'd be Naomi Campbell, a prima dona that occassionally snaps I'd say I'm more a combo of the GEFS/EC ENS which this year means I'm off by 50-100 miles at 48-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Scott, I think why I misinterpret you sometimes is that even though you may think BM, you will challenge folks to point out why the outliers are wrong and it's easy for someone who swings by to misperceive that as you supporting them....I'll have to keep that in mind. Nothing wrong with doing that, it's an asset to the DISCO, as opposed to just vacuously tossing an outlier aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seems a lot of ticks and tocks and tucks and tips are being tossed around like Halloween candy. They all lead to nothing but heavy heavy snow Well you toss 24" amounts like they are Jets AFC champion t shirts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And you'd be Naomi Campbell, a prima dona that occassionally snaps I'd say I'm more a combo of the GEFS/EC ENS which this year means I'm off by 50-100 miles at 48-72 hours Guilty as charged, but I readily admit when I'm wrong.....hell, I've always advertised that I'm H5 deficient, but have been practicing and getting much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The skiing is stellar. Waiting for this thing is like watching paint dry. I was talking to a local Highway Dept. Supt. today. He said the equipment has been gettting a good work out and today they were staying in the garage doing repairs/maintenance. He was less than enthusiastic about the prospect for more snow but had been adviseed it's coming. " What can you do, it'll be like this until May." Best thing I've heard all day. Upton has my higher way ups freakin, ice and heavy rain, lots of snow on lots of flat roofs. My my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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