dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone seen UKMET? Absolute pounding! Jerry, How far NW does the low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think you're not too bad per the GFS. Just extrapolating from the HVN sounding data, at least half of what falls is SN up your way...maybe more. Thanks! You said BDR was that line, I think we're justttttttt good enough for me to take in that run, a mess with a lot coming out of it. You think we will be able to get rid of the warmth enough by go time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey dryslot how's it lookon for us up nahth? ON A BUS CAN'T SEE SCREEN MAPS sorrry caps we exceed .5" qpf.. best gfs run for our area since friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS follows this storm with a nice little clipper. I like nice little clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not exactly a classic sleet setup for us with a rapidly deepening/closing 850mb and 700mb low underneath us. Have to think we'd tick colder in mid levels. Yeah that's what I've been saying, however, if it crawls up the coastline instead of moving more to the ne, it could wrap a lot more warmer air than one would expect. LOL, I literally walk the ra/ip/sn line for about 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not exactly a classic sleet setup for us with a rapidly deepening/closing 850mb and 700mb low underneath us. Have to think we'd tick colder in mid levels. Its certainly not a classic long duration sleet setup assuming the low doesn't come a lot further N. Given how the system is hugging the coast initially, it could wrap some warm air in pretty far W to the south of us...then as it bombs ENE or NE, part of that clips the region, but it would likely be a transient feature and only last a few hours at most. Once that CCB gets cranking, most people who even mixed or changed to sleet to begin with around here would flip to +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its all about snow growth for ratios....not sfc temps. I've had awful snow growth with sfc temps int he teens and great snow growth with sfc temps at 33F.If you start getting above freezing that can limit ratios, but even at about 30F, you can get great ratios. your right, we snowed for hours in the Boxing Day event with temps in the low 20's yet had these horrific pellet like dendrites and only got < 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 we exceed .5" qpf.. best gfs run for our area since friday And if we go back and look what happened on the 1/12 storm, It not done coming NW i think yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Trend was NW with the GFS, We will need a few more tics NW .50" back to me but a pretty sharp cuttoff west as the low goes a little more ENE when it gets just south of our lat....... Thx man...euro fngrs crossed..gfs se bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like versus the euro the gfs has a lobe of vorticity sw of the euro by a few hundred miles over the lakes. Gfs was way sw with it in earlier runs. If the euro corrects towards the gfs it's going to come nw quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its certainly not a classic long duration sleet setup assuming the low doesn't come a lot further N. Given how the system is hugging the coast initially, it could wrap some warm air in pretty far W to the south of us...then as it bombs ENE or NE, part of that clips the region, but it would likely be a transient feature and only last a few hours at most. Once that CCB gets cranking, most people who even mixed or changed to sleet to begin with around here would flip to +SN Yup agreed. The GFS has a classic snowbomb look for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah that's what I've been saying, however, if it crawls up the coastline instead of moving more to the ne, it could wrap a lot more warmer air than one would expect. LOL, I literally walk the ra/ip/sn line for about 6 hrs. The only thing i'd be concerned about is getting this thing to track near MTP or something. Then we're going to bring in too much warm air in mid levels for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I still find it amazing how consistently different the off hour and on hour runs have been! It's gotta be something with initialization then. The 00z and 12z GFS are fairly close, just a slight NW bump really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like versus the euro the gfs has a lobe of vorticity sw of the euro by a few hundred miles over the lakes. Gfs was way sw with it in earlier runs. If the euro corrects towards the gfs it's going to come nw quite a bit. Based on this and what the Ukmet are showing, I think you are right on the Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As we get closer again, tic tic NW... I hope this continues coming NW, looks like a decent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Jerry, How far NW does the low track? I can't tell but it appears from the 60 and 72 position that it goes roughly near the BM or maybe between the BM and ACK. 1024 HP continues to drain down N winds so this setup (on all models in some form) should be cold. The only issue (not for you) is sleet and I have to believe rain is less likely (for me) with the N wind drain. However, I agree that this may trend further NW. Still...I gotta think BOS flirts with some very ridiculous seasonal totals before January is over. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks! You said BDR was that line, I think we're justttttttt good enough for me to take in that run, a mess with a lot coming out of it. You think we will be able to get rid of the warmth enough by go time? Yeah...I was thinking BDR and east on the shoreline will risk flirting with fzra/rain. I think just about everyone risks some sleet given the warmth in the mid-levels at the start. but if we can get this thing to deepen fast enough, heights will crash and we end with a nice thumping of snow. we'll see. No matter what, most of CT away from the immediate shoreline looks to stay frozen on the past few GFS runs. I was concerned over the weekend of more warmth taking over the state. Those concerns have rapidly faded in the past 12-24 hours or so. Still concerned about too much warm air on the shoreline though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The only thing i'd be concerned about is getting this thing to track near MTP or something. Then we're going to bring in too much warm air in mid levels for a time. I know it sounds like an old school Andy Tandy rule, but usually with e-ne flow at 850...that argues for mostly snow. I know there are layers above that may get marginal, but even the H7 track is normally a classic snow track. I just worry about how far up the coast it gets, before it makes its move to the ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know it sounds like an old school Andy Tandy rule, but usually with e-ne flow at 850...that argues for mostly snow. I know there are layers above that may get marginal, but even the H7 track is normally a classic snow track. I just worry about how far up the coast it gets, before it makes its move to the ene. We basically need to turn the flow in the mid-levels out of the E and ENE before it warms above 0C....usually that direction halts any WAA as the WAA component is no longer strong enough to overcome insane dynamical cooling from the cold conveyor to the E and NE...usually the WAA vector has to be more out of the ESE and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know it sounds like an old school Andy Tandy rule, but usually with e-ne flow at 850...that argues for mostly snow. I know there are layers above that may get marginal, but even the H7 track is normally a classic snow track. I just worry about how far up the coast it gets, before it makes its move to the ene. he just fired up the NGM and his dot-matrix printer is cranking out charts as we type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 doesent the high move off the coast and let the warm air move in with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 he just fired up the NGM and his dot-matrix printer is cranking out charts as we type. LOL I can picture that zipping sound from the printer, coming from his bedroom, as each line is printed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So We Have: NAM - OTS GFS - Scarily close, but Basically a big snowstorm for now UKMET - Awesome Hit EURO - Awesome Hit GGEM - ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't tell but it appears from the 60 and 72 position that it goes roughly near the BM or maybe between the BM and ACK. 1024 HP continues to drain down N winds so this setup (on all models in some form) should be cold. The only issue (not for you) is sleet and I have to believe rain is less likely (for me) with the N wind drain. However, I agree that this may trend further NW. Still...I gotta think BOS flirts with some very ridiculous seasonal totals before January is over. What a winter! Yeah, I don't think i will have a mix issue, And the seasonal trend has been for storms to go a little NW as we get in close, It is amazing the winter that Bos is having and looking ahead into next month it looks to continue...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah...I was thinking BDR and east on the shoreline will risk flirting with fzra/rain. I think just about everyone risks some sleet given the warmth in the mid-levels at the start. but if we can get this thing to deepen fast enough, heights will crash and we end with a nice thumping of snow. we'll see. No matter what, most of CT away from the immediate shoreline looks to stay frozen on the past few GFS runs. I was concerned over the weekend of more warmth taking over the state. Those concerns have rapidly faded in the past 12-24 hours or so. Still concerned about too much warm air on the shoreline though. Cool, thanks. We sure are heading in the right direction, too. At least we have a very thick layer of concrete here that can withstand any initial onslaught of ZR/RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like we flirt with sleet issues though with some fairly toasty temps around 850mb... I'm still worried about sleet for a time with this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice to see crazy uncle on board it snows where it wants to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so per the GFS down here we see a littel front end snow then lots of rain then a littel snow to finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We basically need to turn the flow in the mid-levels out of the E and ENE before it warms above 0C....usually that direction halts any WAA as the WAA component is no longer strong enough to overcome insane dynamical cooling from the cold conveyor to the E and NE...usually the WAA vector has to be more out of the ESE and SE. Yeah the 850 warmfront if you will...is just to my se. The soundings verbatim were not bad at all, but it gets extremely close at hr 63ish. Even MQE has a warmer sounding aloft, so latitude might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ggem out to 48hrs on the black and white charts...seems west of other guidance still, but not like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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