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Heavy heavy smoke is back ! YES!

Believable but will it actually happen? Nobody knows. Largest month to month warming on record is 0.85 (Jan ‘56). The largest warming on record in Aug is 0.61 (1988). Actually, the largest on record of any month July-Oct is only that 0.61. Here are the largest on record: 0.85 Jan 1956 0.84 June 1968 0.78 Mar 1951 0.73 Feb 1976 0.71 May 2026 0.68 Nov 2009 0.68 Mar 2000 0.66 May 1967 0.61 Aug 1988 0.61 Jan 1975 0.60 Oct 1991 0.60 Jan 1953 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt @Typhoon Tip

I asked Chat GPT - Here is what it thinks (LOL) Waste of time, but I could not resist! ------------------------- I've noticed the same thing this warm season, especially across the Mid-Atlantic. The NAM (both 12 km and 3 km Nest) has had a habit of looking terrible beyond about 6–12 hours for convective days, then suddenly "finding" storms in the final few runs. A few reasons: It's heavily driven by its own physics The NAM tends to overmix the boundary layer during the day. That lowers dewpoints too much. CAPE gets underdone and convective initiation is delayed or suppressed. Small errors explode in summertime July convection in Virginia often depends on: a leftover outflow boundary a weak differential heating zone a tiny vorticity maximum terrain circulations along the Blue Ridge If the model is off by 20 miles or an hour on any of those, the entire simulated radar looks different. Data assimilation doesn't capture morning boundaries well Once radar, satellite, surface observations, and morning soundings are ingested, the 6–12 hour forecasts improve dramatically because the model finally "knows" where the atmosphere actually is. The FV3-based CAMs have generally been outperforming it This year I've found: RRFS HRRR WoFS (short range) even the HRDPS at times have handled scattered convection better than the NAM Nest. The pattern we've been in is especially unfriendly We've had a lot of: weak northwest flow pulse convection little synoptic forcing abundant moisture That's almost the worst-case scenario for deterministic CAMs. The difference between "nothing" and "10 storms" can literally be one county's outflow boundary. For Loudoun County specifically The NAM has repeatedly shown this sequence: 24–36 hr: mostly dry 18 hr: isolated showers 12 hr: scattered storms 6 hr: widespread afternoon convection Reality: the 6-hour run ends up being closest. For your forecasting, I'd probably trust the NAM mainly for: temperature trends dewpoint trends low-level winds large-scale forcing ...and lean much more on the HRRR/RRFS for actual storm placement once you're inside about 18 hours. The other thing I've noticed this summer is that the ECMWF AI (AIFS) has often had a better "feel" for whether the day would end up active than the NAM did 24–48 hours out. It obviously can't tell you exactly where a cell will pop, but its broader convective signal has been surprisingly consistent.

It’s the last picture before things went down. It was prior to my photo. It is uncertain when service will be restored.

It’s like when anemometers start breaking from too much wind.

Hands down the strongest I have smelled wildfire smoke in Chicago area. Glad I opted to do my run indoors this morning

Didn't coach ask you to suit up?

Over 1400 at Hibbing MN, according to this post on our Lakes regional: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62756-july-2026-general-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=8112695

While obviously not real-time empirical data like GOES, HRRR has smoke guidance you can see on Pivotal to give you an estimate of current and future placement of the band Looks like thick smoke enters most of MA / SNH early afternoon 17-20z

All the PM monitors in Canada west of Buffalo went to “No Data”. Particulate level too high? Lol

Why has the NAM just looked like shit for any shower/storm day we’ve had this year from any range >6 hours??

78.4/61 SKC breezy Pretty much perfect

Saturday evening/night looking quite interesting. Good shortwave, strong height falls, good shear, increasing instability

That's insane. I've been wondering how many houses in the upper mid-west don't have AC and can't hide in filtered air like most of us. Some places in upper MI were near 1200 at times and I bet less than half of homes have AC up there. I don't smell smoke yet, but the air is getting that hazy look

Its like 1960s pre satellite imagery - there are a mix of clouds and smoke and the clouds seem to be thinning as its getting brighter with pokes of a smoky sin.

Absolutely believable based on the massive WWB about to start, which I just posted about above from Paul Roundy, the subsurface warmth and the new DWKW making its way east

Man, pants off today. So far not much signs of smoke.

Interesting day yesterday... Extreme heat, cold front with t storms, smoke shield and, goes east outage...all at about the same time no less.

Pretty low VIS in CNY now up to the N shore of Lake Ontario then seems better north of that once in Canada. That should make its way here though it may raise a tad once it does but could see 3-4SM again this afternoon.

AQI up near 1000 around Duluth

They thought it stood for Gulf of Europe...

Slight risk Saturday. Guess it depends how much clearing we get and heating ahead of the energy and way too many unknowns. ZCZC SPCSWODY3 ALL ACUS03 KWNS 160734 SPC AC 160734 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours before moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ... Synopsis ... The CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central Plains for much of the past week will have retrograded west by Saturday and be located across the US and Canadian Rockies. Strong mid-level westerlies will persist on the ridge's northwest, north, and northeast periphery. Embedded within the westerlies, a series of short-wave troughs and smaller-scale vorticity/speed maxima will move across the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the start of the forecast period, the main short-wave trough will be located across central Ontario, with its associated jet streak located across the Upper Midwest. This feature will dig southeast on Saturday, ending up in the vicinity of northern New England by Sunday morning. Ahead of this main wave, the 20260716/00 UTC guidance suite shows multiple speed/vorticity maxima moving through the west-northwesterly flow, each of which will be capable of aiding the development of scattered elevated thunderstorms. At the surface, a weak surface low should develop Saturday morning across southern Ontario/the northern Great Lakes. This low will slowly deepen during the day as it digs southeast, reaching upstate New York by evening. Ahead of the surface low, southwesterly low-level flow will transport a very moist airmass northeast into the Lower Great lakes, with 70F surface dewpoints possible as far northeast as western New York. To the southwest of the surface low, a surface cold front will serve as an initiating boundary for thunderstorms during the afternoon. An unstable and strongly sheared airmass will be in place by later afternoon across Ohio northeast into western New York. As thunderstorms initiate along the front, large hail will be possible before thunderstorm outflows eventually congeal into one or more linear clusters posing a threat for damaging winds. This line of storms will push south and east during the evening and overnight with a continued threat of strong, damaging thunderstorm winds. Farther southeast across the Mid-Atlantic, most model guidance indicates the development of a surface trough to the east of the Appalachians during the late afternoon. To the east of this trough axis, temperatures will warm into the 90Fs, although there is some uncertainty how far north the hot boundary layer will extend. Given the presence of this surface trough and strong diurnal heating, several clusters of thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon, especially if any of the previously discussed vorticity/speed maxima can interact with the low-level trough. Strong, damaging winds will be possible with any thunderstorm complex during the afternoon. Additional severe potential will also exist overnight as the remnants of the convection along the cold front approaches the region. Gusty thunderstorm winds will be the likely threat with these storms. ..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

ensembles and OP's are showing a stalled out front situation towards the end of the month. right now it stalls slightly off shore with several waves of LP riding along the front. A lot of times the models are too progressive pushing fronts through this time of the year so could be something to watch. Almost all of the ensembles have prolific rain totals just offshore but would not take much for that parade of lows to come inland. Regardless, it looks much more active again beginning this weekend. It's funny, I went away for 2 weeks and before I left it was hot and dry then we had all that rain while I was gone and nothing since I've been back home. Starting to feel rain cursed lol

Been using it. Better than nothing but not great. Sky is hazy here. Faint smoke smell to the air but nothing horrendous. Air quality is poor but still no smoke visible at the surface in my area. Out my way this still trails 2023 by a big margin. Still nasty though.