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  2. bluewave
    The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline. It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños.
  3. WinterWolf
    Ahhh ok…makes sense now. Thanks Hippy.
  4. SI Mailman
    I took my lunch break. Looks like I’ll be taking a second lunch break soon
  5. NavarreDon
    We have orange, ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However, the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. .
  6. Santa Claus
    remember your creed soldier
  7. EastCoast NPZ
    And another classic miss from SW to NE. Lots of thunder, wind, not enough rain to wet the ground and 1 mile north gets pummelled.
  8. SnoSki14
    It's toast for this region. It's already nearly 2pm
  9. midatlanticweather
    Strike out of the blue (well haze today) I got one around July 4th that lit up the outside even with the sunshine. A year ago one struck behind the neighbor's house and fired the well pump. That one there is furthest one I have seen from the main cell, maybe a storm is trying to form there
  10. Mail Man
    Ughhhh this weather is disrupting my work again.
  11. jaxjagman
    Heres that article recently posted https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/
  12. Met1985
    Bad storm hitting home and a big storm just north of me on lake Keowee.
  13. Brian5671
    I think east of the city is toast for anything later other than dying convection
  14. Torchageddon
    I haven't yet seen anything concrete but that was the most well defined hook echo I've seen in the GTA. The QLCS has a few cells with spacing but its a tad crowded. The og sup is nearing Niagara on the Lake but may slip past. Kettle Point ON has a tight cell that is sus. Grab from Instant Weather:
  15. Mr Senior
    Would anyone venture to guess how eastern Morris County might be affected by storms between 4:00 - 6:00 PM? I have to travel in that area around that time.
  16. NEG NAO
    its appropriate that "Weathers" is the starting pitcher for the Yanks tonight - now the question is whether or not they will be rained out - Mets Phillies at 3:05 in Philly should be able to be squeezed in
  17. jm1220
    If it doesn’t clear out pretty substantially I think we’re mostly shot for anything later but I’ll take whatever rain we get.
  18. rclab
    1.03 in Central Park between 11:51 and 12:51. As always ….
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Storm near Madison VA is rotating. Has a well defined mesocyclone on radar, and it’s even further from the warm front than most of us.
  20. kat5hurricane
    One storm after another. Fun from a weather enthusiast point of view, crappy for somebody who has been on the road all day.
  21. BoulderWX
    1.5” - would be fine missing the severe threat this evening but we’ll see how it works out.
  22. Chinook
    New severe thunderstorm watches in IN/MI/OH/PA along with the enhanced risk outlook type area. A few storms are getting going in Flint in South Bend, but nothing much. Probably a marginal severe storm by Flint. KDTX has no radar data, by the way, so that's a bummer for me an a couple of you guys in Michigan.
  23. jm1220
    Hysterical that JFK’s latest ob is TSTM/Smoke.
  24. SolidIcewx
    92/79/108
  25. dmillz25
    Well over 2” of rain here
  26. HIPPYVALLEY
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