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DP of -5 is not good for that prediction

Unfortunately that's really all it is at this point. Pray we're wrong and be ready. Check on neighbors. Use judgement and be safe.

18, busted low from 21!

I mean actual obs aren't weenie worthy.

Ukie got colder and snowier again. Wow!

Let's go with GETTING covered.

LT snow/snow grains here.

I do not know if it means anything, but I do not see a single Weather underground station down the valley over 32. The one I saw at 32 was in Athens most are 28 29.

I agree. I feel like the temps didn't get as high today as forecasted?

Yeah- count me as someone who is getting concerned again. Nothing more I can do at this point..it’s gonna do what’s it’s gonna do. Got the generator gassed and ready….

Brown from IWX must be in here lurking… lol

Rain and 29 degrees in Halls. Very minor icing on vehicles and driveway, roads are just wet. I doubt we have any real problems here unless the surface temps move in the opposite direction from the models.

21 degrees near downtown Winston-Salem. Still no precip, but quite breezy. Feels like it could start any minute now…

Guarantee I am going to get weenied like a mofo. But this is going to start WAY earlier than the models thought.

Cloudy here just to the west of Alum Creek Park - the calm before the storm.

Thank you The last stats I provided basically was for each model qpf I used all ratios within that type to create a 94'row sensitivity matrix. Basically trying to create an "ensemble" at the expensive of assuming qpf and ratios are independent. Key Vulnerabilities Identified CAM Extreme Variance: The CAM group shows the widest volatility, with a 12.8-inch spread. This is driven by the 3kmNAM and RRFS predicting heavy/wet ratios (6.2–6.5), while the HRRR and FV3 predict high ratios (13.4–14.5). If the FV3's QPF (1.31") meets the HRRR's SLR (14.5), Harrisburg would see 19.00". Regional High-End Potential: The Regional models (NAM, RDPS, RAP) produced the highest theoretical mean of 12.44" and a maximum potential of 20.00" (NAM QPF × RAP SLR). This confirms that if the regional models resolve the moisture axis better than the globals, totals will likely exceed the current consensus. Global Stability: The Global models are the most "stable," with a relatively narrow 5.9-inch spread. Their consensus (9.5" to 15.4") acts as a high-confidence "floor" for the event. Ensemble Mean Consensus: The Ensemble Means (SREF, GEFS, etc.) show a heavy lean toward the 13.5" mark, suggesting that the statistical "most likely" outcome is currently hovering just above a foot. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The way reports are looking I’d say 8pm for the immediate area. That’s for the weenies

Definitely. Will ease this weekends swing and miss out here.

I'm not a huge fan of FV3, so I would hope so. One big thing is that a fully-coupled GFS will be implemented later this year, which should be very helpful. That means a lot of things, but it means that the atmosphere, water, land-surface, and sea ice will all "talk" to each other.

Hope everyone busted low on temps today. We only got to 16.2F here with a forecasted high of 19. Every little bit should help.

33

I too noticed all day out west that very little latitude was gained

I dunno, but I was inspired by another poster here enough to go out and buy a bottle of champagne for a champagne breakfast of sorts tomorrow. Hand-made bagels are proofing in the fridge right now, so I'll boil/bake those off first thing in the morning to have with cream cheese and lox, and maybe even some poached eggs. In other news... it's super cold out right now! 15°F is the kind of cold where your face starts to hurt after a few minutes.

Looking great! Edit - Johnson City, TN is the line right now