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Area wide severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm.
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Isolated cells now E of the main area might hit the NYC area or W parts of Queens/Brooklyn
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That looks to be heading for Philly S That will head for Philly and southern NJ.
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Expectations quickly changing for the island. First batch will obviously miss, all bets remain on the stuff in Pa. Not the setup that brings the big rains
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Already storms popping in Loudoun and WV panhandle
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs…. -
Pretty wild up here with CTG lightening and booming thunder. Day has become dusk and the temp is down to 65. I've got speakers paired together all throughout the downstairs for the dog which is helping her today thankfully. Already over 1/2 inch of rain and looks like we're not done with this round yet.
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Fwiw Rufus seems to have a better handling on the convection rn. At least when comparing the most recent runs of RRFS vs HRRR at 3 pm and the the radar.
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super el nino banter thread
Keith Central PA replied to forkyfork's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Were you alive in Feb 83 or January 2016? -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for for everyone until 10 pm.- 1,537 replies
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another area rapidly developing storm near Old Bridge moving up Route 9 - more of these pop up storms this afternoon thoughout central and north jersey
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Keith Central PA replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Actually inland area's like Harrisburg where I live now,did ok in 97-98..the coast was a disaster -
Just light rain here
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A little over 1" now
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Wow! That has to be near a record max forecast for them at a 3 day lead. Some question marks around intensity for the moment though as it appears to be starting an ERC
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It certainly cleared up in a hurry. Full sunshine in Raleigh now. Wonder if the atmosphere can destabilize in time to take advantage
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Yesterday you got it, today I got .70" Monster rains for a few minutes and some epic bolts. I may get one more quick downpour in a few: Edit, it is here
