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  2. The storm that came thru here about 45-50 minutes ago should be knocking on your door any minute.
  3. Yep, I am at 2.20" since June 30th. I live about 10 miles south of Rattlesnake. The surface is very dry. I thought we would finally get some real rain tonight but it looks like that won't happen. Arrggghhhh
  4. Damn going to be a pretty awful bust for MBY. Euro was steady with 1.5”+ today for many runs.
  5. 2-3 inches of rain per hour rates right now with over .7 in the gauge.
  6. Pouring rain right now, kind of caught me off guard. Probably won’t last long but good drink for the plants.
  7. Mushrooms are going nutz down here too. Recent rain and consistent high humidity are the cause. Especially the high humidity. It's been stupid humid down here for weeks. Looking so forward to the first legit Canadian front. It's been a tuff summer working outside
  8. I just started getting decent thunderstorm rains ~7PM. This month so far has been quite beneficial for the lawns and may allow me to keep the sprinklers off the rest of the month!
  9. Resonant thunder heard from miles out. I hope this first line just dumps.
  10. Loud thunder, several nearby CG strikes, and very heavy rainfall here with some small hail mixed in. No wind at all though.
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. Charlottesville is the storm magnet this month. Seems like every time I check the radar to see if I am finally getting rain down here, there is a cell over Charlottesville.
  13. Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely into this evening into early tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.420 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  14. Today
  15. Activity has picked up on that cell by Dulles.
  16. Doing caterpillar work, could it be any more gross outside? Perfectly still, disgusting air.
  17. OH I love this product. heh. I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc. Weird. It's actually called phase density. Different topic: I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some. I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit. In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance. I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive. It's a pattern augmenter. If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. If in phase, the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor. I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index outlook bias get a sense of the interference scheme. Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with the +PNA, and the 7-8-1-2 seems to as well, I would call this a harmonic interference. constructive. I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the constructive vs destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A. The disconnect may be proportional to c or d.
  18. Odd - hearing a regular bout of thunder rumble from the inbound system approaching NOVA. But the Lightening app shows only a few hits out by Winchester and more to the SW. Wonder if there isn't a bug in the app and/or some sensors that are down?
  19. In a few days NNE will start getting temperatures regularly into the 40's most nights, maybe even a few upper 30's, as we head toward September. Swimming pools will be cooling down fast. Even here, I expect the pool will have to be closed before Labor day, which is about the latest it ever comes.
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