dmillz25 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Looking ahead to August, looks to start out hot and humid but with a raging El niño chances are that August will be cooler than average and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Why is everyone just assuming August will be cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Why is everyone just assuming August will be cooler El niño in August are usually cooler in our area, doesn't mean it's a lock but chances are good for a cooler than average August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Why is everyone just assuming August will be coolerOne big reason. The ring of fire will be suppressed by frequent troughs dropping through the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 El niño in August are usually cooler in our away, doesn't mean it's a lock but chances are good for a cooler than average AugustThe Euro ENS and GEFS are both showing major cooldowns to start August. The brunt of the cold air looks to hit the Great Lakes, as has been the trend this summer, but we should have slightly below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Some August stats for my station... Warmest Aug. 78.3 degrees in 2005...Coolest 71.0 in 1982 Highest temp. 103 on the 9th 2001... Lowest 45 on the 29th 1982 Highest precip. 21.53" in 2011..............Driest 0.65" in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Why is everyone just assuming August will be cooler We can't automatically assume that because we've warmed on average since the last two strong ninos. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up near normal or even a tick above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 the gfs/euro both show the longest heat wave since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 We can't automatically assume that because we've warmed on average since the last two strong ninos. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up near normal or even a tick above. Weren't Augusts of 1969, 1972, 1997, 2002, and 2009 examples of warm El Niño Augusts? I think that 1969 and 20009 were actually warmer than July. The cold August Niño summers I remember were 1977, 1978, 1981 (more warm neutral), 1982, and 1986, Which ones, on either score, am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 the gfs/euro both show the longest heat wave since 2013 you can't write off a hot August...2002 was hot...August 1877 and 1918 and 2009 were the warmest months for the year...1972 was near average and 1991 was hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Weren't Augusts of 1969, 1972, 1997, 2002, and 2009 examples of warm El Niño Augusts? I think that 1969 and 20009 were actually warmer than July. The cold August Niño summers I remember were 1977, 1978, 1981 (more warm neutral), 1982, and 1986, Which ones, on either score, am I missing? Not surprisingly, the warm El Nino Augusts such as 2002 and 2009 featured a +EPO overall, while the cooler Augusts such as 1982 and 1986 featured a negative EPO. The latter category is likely where 2015 will fall given the current projections for the EPO. This summer, July looks like it will be the warmest month relative to normal. My confidence is high on a cooler than normal August, and this should yield a summer JJA very close to normal temperature wise in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Not surprisingly, the warm El Nino Augusts such as 2002 and 2009 featured a +EPO overall, while the cooler Augusts such as 1982 and 1986 featured a negative EPO. The latter category is likely where 2015 will fall given the current projections for the EPO. This summer, July looks like it will be the warmest month relative to normal. My confidence is high on a cooler than normal August, and this should yield a summer JJA very close to normal temperature wise in our area. What about 1969 and 1997 EPO-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 August stats for NYC... August.......................................................... decade ave temp max.. min ave max min1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.21890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.91900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.11910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.81920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.31930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.51940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.41950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.91960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.21970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.11980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.21990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.42000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.02010's.....75.7.......96.....59.....92.2.....60.21870/1880-2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.21980-2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9Warmest.............Coolest.............Wettest.............Driest...........80.3 in 1980.....68.5 in 1927.....18.95" in 2011.....0.18" in 199579.7 in 2005.....69.1 in 1903.....12.36" in 1990.....0.24" in 196478.8 in 1988.....70.0 in 1887.....10.86" in 1955.....0.54" in 191678.7 in 2001.....70.2 in 1886.......9.83" in 1927.....0.59" in 198178.5 in 1995.....70.3 in 1874.......9.56" in 1873.....0.86" in 188178.2 in 1938.....70.4 in 1883.......9.37" in 1971.....0.95" in 188678.1 in 1955.....70.6 in 1889.......9.28" in 1911.....1.07" in 191078.0 in 1939.....70.6 in 1894.......9.08" in 1942.....1.14" in 188277.8 in 1944.....70.9 in 1946.......8.97" in 1875.....1.16" in 198077.7 in 2002.....71.1 in 1919.......8.85" in 1933.....1.17" in 189477.7 in 1983Hottest max........Lowest min....104 8/07/1918...50 8/27/1885103 8/26/1948...50 8/28/1885103 8/09/2001...50 8/29/1965102 8/11/1944...50 8/29/1982101 8/28/1948...50 8/29/1986101 8/04/1944...50 8/30/1965100 8/31/1953...50 8/31/1976100 8/28/1948...51 8/23/1923100 8/09/1949...51 8/27/1887100 8/05/1944...51 8/30/1986100 8/05/1955...51 8/31/1965100 8/02/1955100 8/01/1933Highest min.........Coolest max...84 8/14/1908...59 8/21/200783 8/02/2006...59 8/31/191182 8/13/1908...60 8/10/196282 8/09/1896...60 8/28/194082 8/09/2001...61 8/26/194082 8/07/191882 8/01/191781 8/15/198881 8/11/189181 8/11/189681 8/05/1908Coolest monthly max...83 in 192786 in 191087 in 188987 in 189488 in 196388 in 195088 in 1904warmest monthly min...65 in 200564 in 187764 in 198063 in 190163 in 2001...# of times 90 or higher...15 in 198014 in 200213 in 195913 in 199512 in 201011 in 193911 in 194410 in 189610 in 193610 in 195510 in 198810 in 1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 GEFS going below average temps in our area days 11-15 Fits well with CPS current projections for early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Looks like August will open warm through D5 before the trough pushes east. Chances for 90s now thru the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Happy August 1. One more month until Autumn =) Looks like August will open warm through D5 before the trough pushes east. Chances for 90s now thru the 5th. Disgusting weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Looks like August will open warm through D5 before the trough pushes east. Chances for 90s now thru the 5th. Yeah, once that trough pushes east, the models keep it over the Northeast into the middle of August. So these will probably be the last 90's for a while. We'll see if the WAR can push back closer to the coast for the second half of the month and allow some 90 degree potential to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 July ends up averaging 78.8...The 1981-2010 average is 76.9...The warmest 30 day period so far is 78.9 from July 2nd to the 31st...there is a chance that the average warmest 30 days could be close to 80.0 at the end of this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Enjoy the last of the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Yeah, once that trough pushes east, the models keep it over the Northeast into the middle of August. So these will probably be the last 90's for a while. We'll see if the WAR can push back closer to the coast for the second half of the month and allow some 90 degree potential to return. Similar progression as 2013/2014 of cool front end of august albeit this year could be less pornounced along the coast. Lets see how deep we go into the red through the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Overall, this looks like a near normal temperature regime for our area over the next couple weeks. I think most of the anomalous cool will remain NW, and likewise, most of the anomalous heat to our south. This summer thus far has been noted for transience, and that should persist - namely, stretches of low dew point airmasses periodicaly interspersed with high humidity / temperature surges to the 90s. This warm season should feel prolonged as well, IMO, due to a warm May and warm September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Iso agree, the record or near record warm May has enhanced what is an otherwise slightly above normal (jun/jul so far) summer. We should rack up +1.5 to 2.5 through Aug 5th, then near normal Aug 6 - 7. Aug 8 - 11 looks like some negatives. Obviously the prior days 1 - 7 will be influenced by storm/clouds chances as well. 850 surge next mon/tue/wed but could be muted with clouds/storms. If not Tue could see some mid 90s or upper in the warmer spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Little shower overhead dropped the temp back down to 80 (upper 70s showing up in the stronger storm in northern nj). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Iso agree, the record or near record warm May has enhanced what is an otherwise slightly above normal (jun/jul so far) summer. We should rack up +1.5 to 2.5 through Aug 5th, then near normal Aug 6 - 7. Aug 8 - 11 looks like some negatives. Obviously the prior days 1 - 7 will be influenced by storm/clouds chances as well. 850 surge next mon/tue/wed but could be muted with clouds/storms. If not Tue could see some mid 90s or upper in the warmer spots. I'm on the above normal temperature train for August...the only three summers that were hot during an el nino were 1977, 2002, 1952...el nino 2002 was stronger than the other two...1969 had a hot August... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Summers on average have been hotter over the last 10 years, so above normal is actually the new normal. I'm talking about 1 or 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Pretty sexy Cu in all directions this afternoon... the real agitated, fractal type that you ususally see on big severe days. Shame we don't have a bit more fuel in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 It would be nice if that 12z Euro Mid-Atlantic rainfall jackpot nudges further north over time to help ease the Long Island drought conditions. JFK running well below normal April through July with the driest May on record 4/15...1.61....-2.26 5/15...0.46....-3.48 6/15...4.99...+1.13 7/15...2.31....-1.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 August 1 high in New York City: 89°. At least today, both the haze and humidity were difficult to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Not the coolest look but likely potential for rain/storms with the lower heights. But coastal areas/metro will see elevated lows. We'll see how things progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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