LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think that was a derecho. I missed the best here on the south shore but still had 40-50mph winds. Not damaging but Loud with the trees in full leaf Best storm in several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still no power here. Some roads still closed. My windshield is smashed. Not sure if from a branch or the hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still no power here. Some roads still closed. My windshield is smashed. Not sure if from a branch or the hail. The hail estimated on radar briefly last night would smash windshields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think that was a derecho. I missed the best here on the south shore but still had 40-50mph winds. Not damaging but Loud with the trees in full leaf Best storm in several years It did not meet official criteria for a derecho. It would have needed to been over a much longer distance. The damage really only started once it reached Long Island. It was pretty much a classic MCS, or about as classic as you're going to find in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think we are looking at an extra tropical storm. This could be a big big dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The 12z GFS is coming in with a more organized look at H5. Still not sure how far North it's coming but this run should be at least a better organized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I think we are looking at an extra tropical storm. This could be a big big dump In what way? The vort max currently responsible is over Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It did not meet official criteria for a derecho. It would have needed to been over a much longer distance. The damage really only started once it reached Long Island. It was pretty much a classic MCS, or about as classic as you're going to find in this area. Didn't the same cluster continue in to RI and MA? Isn't that far enough? See what I meant when I said the warm ocean temps corespond to the best severe season along the coast!!!! Pretty insane storm for the middle of the night anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The GFS also has a kicker shortwave that ends up near International Falls this run instead of near the Iowa border. Only about a 400 mile shift North in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Didn't the same cluster continue in to RI and MA? Isn't that far enough? See what I meant when I said the warm ocean temps corespond to the best severe season along the coast!!!! Pretty insane storm for the middle of the night anywhere To meet official criteria the damage path needs to be at least 240 miles. The one that hit the Mid-Atlantic in 2010 initiated over IL/IN earlier in the day and cleared the coast overnight. That's a long haul. I don't know if the damage was consistent enough to qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The storms over LI were as classic as the September, 2010 125mph macroburst/EF1 tornado in Queens. The Queens storm did much more damage as it was 125mph winds and over a much more populated area, but it's still a very impressive event that occurred today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 In what way? The vort max currently responsible is over Wyoming.That combines with the energy off the South Carolina coast. Just a hunch but I think we have seen this before. July Mid 90s, unnamed but big time storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 12z GFS shifted about 50 miles closer to the coast but still doesn't look anything like the NAM or ECMWF at H5, thus no mechanism to tug the surface low NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 To meet official criteria the damage path needs to be at least 240 miles. The one that hit the Mid-Atlantic in 2010 initiated over IL/IN earlier in the day and cleared the coast overnight. That's a long haul. I don't know if the damage was consistent enough to qualify. It was definitely very close to a derecho. Just a remarkable storm for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The storms over LI were as classic as the September, 2010 125mph macroburst/EF1 tornado in Queens. The Queens storm did much more damage as it was 125mph winds and over a much more populated area, but it's still a very impressive event that occurred today. That was a highly isolated event. This started just West of NYC and the damage path went all the way to Cape Cod, and arguably further if it didn't run out of land. Yesterday the 21z SREF severe probs were astounding for LI/SNE. They kept posting them in the New England thread. Great job by that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It was definitely very close to a derecho. Just a remarkable storm for LI. It was definitely a very damaging storm I just don't know if we should be throwing around the D word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 That was a highly isolated event. This started just West of NYC and the damage path went all the way to Cape Cod, and arguably further if it didn't run out of land. Yesterday the 21z SREF severe probs were astounding for LI/SNE. They kept posting them in the New England thread. Great job by that model. What was isolated? The September, 2010 event? It was isolated in terms of distance but in terms of population, it was very widespread and severe. The damage done is the same as a 500 mile long storm in the middle of nowhere. Dropped 2 separate tornadoes, including a real EF1, and in the same area also dropped a separate 125mph macroburst that covered almost 15 miles in heavily populated Queens. I think for NYC itself, it was once in a lifetime type storm in 2010 and we wont ever see anything like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 What was isolated? The September, 2010 event? It was isolated in terms of distance but in terms of population, it was very widespread and severe. The damage done is the same as a 500 mile long storm in the middle of nowhere. Dropped 2 separate tornadoes, including a real EF1, and in the same area also dropped a separate 125mph macroburst that covered almost 15 miles in heavily populated Queens. That storm was just nuts. The damage path is still visable on the grand central in forest hills. With a complete blow down of huge mature trees. My grandma lived right in the path in an apartment building and thougt for sure there was a tornado and she had lived in Texas for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 What was isolated? The September, 2010 event? It was isolated in terms of distance but in terms of population, it was very widespread and severe. The damage done is the same as a 500 mile long storm in the middle of nowhere. Dropped 2 separate tornadoes, including a real EF1, and in the same area also dropped a separate 125mph macroburst that covered almost 15 miles in heavily populated Queens. I think for NYC itself, it was once in a lifetime type storm in 2010 and we wont ever see anything like that again. My part of Brooklyn got quarter size hail and 90 mph winds from that macroburst/tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 at that range i'd want the nam to be in upstate ny It basically went to the Euro ensemble mean which was further SE than the OP at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 It basically went to the Euro ensemble mean which was further SE than the OP at 0z. We saw this in the winter with the euro op being to phase happy and bullish, I feel it backs off some what at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 We saw this in the winter with the euro op being to phase happy and bullish, I feel it backs off some what at 12z Yeah, I would probably go with the ensemble mean for now and wait to see if models trend more north once we get under 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 not thrilled about all the confluence that has to get out of the way first. i think the gfs is most likely to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 GGEM still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 My part of Brooklyn got quarter size hail and 90 mph winds from that macroburst/tornado. Yes. Sorry. Brooklyn/Queens should've said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Yes. Sorry. Brooklyn/Queens should've said. It's cool. I would to see something like that again sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 GGEM still OTS. Heaviest stays south of area over MA like the 0z Euro ensembles. For the sake of easing the drought conditions here, would like to see models tick north once we get under 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Heaviest stays south of area over MA like the 0z Euro ensembles. For the sake of easing the drought conditions here, would like to see models tick north once we get under 72 hrs. Got like .10 last night. That's not allot most places but here it was a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Got like .10 last night. That's not allot most places but here it was a deluge. It's time for the MA to share the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 the canadian is even further south than its 0z run. the fat lady is going through her scales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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