weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I need my beauty sleep. I hope i'm not awakened by a thunderstorm at 7am. That would be bad. :-( That;s a bold face lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 where does the R/S line get to on the 18z NAM? It's hard to fathom a low traversing from Block Island to Chatham won't create some metro area tainting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM verbatim is like 25-30" of snow in Metro Bos depending on ratios (and r/s line). I'm going to go 10-15" in NW Mass and increasing to nearly double that in the lollie areas. Has the GC floor about 4" higher than I started with it yesterday morning. Pretty righteous little event if that playsout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Definitely a much better run for NNE. Can't wait to see CSI and Fronto on the NAM banding site in I think a half hour or so Yes, It came further north before it goes NE, It just keeps getting better......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun poking out now, but a dark, menacing cloud bank is visible in the distance to the south. Absolutely beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's going to really suck to be that guy stuck between the banding in central NE lol wallowing in subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is the wind criteria any less if you are seeing insane rates? I mean verbatim I dont think we make the wind criteria but I think there is going to be a band of 2-4"/hr rates that sits on some spots for 6 hours. That would be blizzard conditions even though the winds are a little below criteria. I bet we see some 3-5''/HR rates...perhaps up towards 6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NWS service forecaset for my area went from "Heavy Snow" to "Snow". Not sure if that has any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nam dryslots most of EMA at 700mb while TOL looks to be ripping under a deform according to RH? Naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM QPF totals...18z (left) versus 12z (right) If the NAM is right I think even PVD and BOS need to be concerned with a dry slot for a time. Regardless I think 12" as a front end thump is just about guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That'd be the GFS that's gradually been slipping this east right? Doesn't the map you posted pretty much show the exact same position as every model? The map I showed was more tucked in than the operational GFS...which is the furthest east of guidance. The American WRF uses the GFS for boundary conditions ie synoptic stuff...which means the main reason the NAM is so tucked in is because of the mesoscale act of transferring energy to the coast..not because it's modeling of synoptic features is lackluster. thus...the operational GFS is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, It came further north before it goes NE, It just keeps getting better......... Game on IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The amount of QG forcing we're going to see with massive divergence with the jet streak on the east side of that closed low is going to be nuts. We're going to absolutely rip. People who get some extra forcing thanks to either a CF in NE Mass or a mid level deformation zone are going to go absolutely nuts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM QPF totals...18z (left) versus 12z (right) good view there bit of a shift towards the euro placement max axis but still goes nuts over CT where the euro seems to develop a bit later. also in geenral the NAM precip amounts are of course much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow 18z NAM is really west.... dry slot issues a lot of RI/SE Mass I think given that H7 track. besides dry slot issues..how about rain issues.. from 15z sref: prob of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM seems to hint that areas like BDL and up through the Berks may be near the pviot point for a time. They really could clean up, despite whatever qpf says. Oops---cancel my 'call". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM QPF totals...18z (left) versus 12z (right) Look similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the NAM is right I think even PVD and BOS need to be concerned with a dry slot for a time. Regardless I think 12" as a front end thump is just about guaranteed. I am pretty much in love with the midlevel low locations up here on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't get more beautiful than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 How will they be tumbled? I think everyone here is in agreement that 6-12/8-16 is going to fall. There will likely be a 10-20" stripe as well, the question is near Bob, or near Hartford? Tell the people in Northern Jersey the NAM has been most consisent after the 18z. Their snowstorm totals just took a hit as the NAM failed to materialize the black hole off the coast for another few hours. It'll keep doing this I think for a bit until it agrees with the others.... But either way, kind of aggressive/angry on your part. I'm the last one to ever follow the Euro and it rains on me. So it's not like I'm advocating an IMBY. I think I am going to see a tremendous front end dump, followed by a dryslot, that some wrap-around. 18z NAM looks good to me. 15-20" verbatim, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18Z ETA Sim Radar at 18hr... a sliver of 40+ dbz right over boston metro Wed AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MBY post but whatever...I'm in all out weenie mode today 12z NAM QPF max was 2.34" right on top of me. 18z NAM QPF max was 2.25" about 15 miles south of me My area is a magnet for the NAM jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The first complex of heavy snow doesn't make it as far north before detereorating / pulled east by the developing mid level low, so totals are a little less toward NW MA and SW NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is the wind criteria any less if you are seeing insane rates? I mean verbatim I dont think we make the wind criteria but I think there is going to be a band of 2-4"/hr rates that sits on some spots for 6 hours. That would be blizzard conditions even though the winds are a little below criteria. you still need to make the wind requirement for a blizzard. I've seen 100 ft visibility in lake-effect with no wind...5"/hr. stuff...doesn't count as a blizzard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How's it looking for Kingston? At work and can't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right now Burlington has White River, VT more snow forecast than Derry, NH or Portland, ME for Gray, does that seem strange to you? Not worried, They are conservative and typically late to the party, There is nothing that suggest to me unless this falls flat on its face over the next 6-12hrs that would make me think they don't update and increase totals.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CCB just crushes us..Snow balls deep for many even if you're shrivelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton just upped Fairfield, Middlesex, New London and New Haven counties to 18-24"+ with thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CCB just crushes us..Snow balls deep for many even if you're shrivelled If there was ever a storm for you to break your 14" record this one may be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Look similar to me. yup...NAM refusing to back down on this. Time for it to slap a collar and leash on the GFS and make the GFS its b****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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