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About NEK_VT_Upslope_Event

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    Peacham, VT
  1. Looks like the NEK may get into the tip of the finger of the heaviest QPF axis.
  2. can somebody post QPF output for the north country (i.e., whites, greens, in between?)
  3. I read something on facebook about the peacham roadcrew having a big fight or something, so you are correct i think. Also, is there a salt/sand ban right by Ewell Pond because that is the slipperiest stretch of road in the NEK!
  4. Could anyone with Euro access post QPF's for various locales around NNE? Tx.
  5. what does Euro show for Northeastern VT?
  6. These are the events in which NNE always overperforms...
  7. A stall looks unlikely. Whether it gets pulled more northerly or easterly from here will dictate our outcome. I'm afraid it looks like we will be on the outside looking in.
  8. If it's any consolation to the higher snowfall models, the air outside (in the NEK at least) is thick, as in, snowstorm thick. I've been in plenty of situations where we have smoked cirrus or only gotten the fringe 2-4" but the thickness of the air right now would suggest otherwise.
  9. If I were in NYC I'd be nervous about the western periphery of the banding setting up well to it's east. Don't know if it will retrograde but that may be pretty telling...
  10. So as NYC goes, so goes Northern VT? Perhaps not as much but if they clobbered it seems to be pretty strong consensus we get higher QPF in that scenario.
  11. Posted this also in the main thread but I for one would not be surprised to the see the Euro happen, at least for the eastern half of VT. It always seemed like an odd depiction for me for the deformation band to swing quickly up to central NH and then stop there. I imagine it pivots further west and decays somewhere between St. J and Burlington for a long time tomorrow. Just a non-meteorological hunch based on seeing how these strong systems perform. Then again, I also won't be surprised if the highlight tomorrow night is that we were 'shadowed'.
  12. I actually don't think it's implausible for this to happen. The gradient is so tight, just a 40-50 mile further pivot of the deform zone would do this. And the stronger the system usually the further west that zone sets up vs. guidance. Perhaps the Euro is just ahead of the other models in picking that up?
  13. Wow, I ain't got a clue what to expect tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Could be the kitchen sink of precip, or hopefully it mainly falls as snow. We shall see! 12Z Euro and GFS sounded really bad, but I suspect that things moderate and come back east a bit over the next 12 hours. Probably more of a nowcasting situation this time around.
  14. Also, almost every cutter is usually followed within 2-3 days max by a front or an upslope event, and once 2-3" of freshies are on the ground the rain is a distant memory. It doesn't take much to change the conditions, and the mood, in a northern resort town.