Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tolland has seen over 14 several times..just not since I've lived there (2000) When my wife and I were dating they got around 18-20 in the Dec 92 storm and also in Dec 95 ...but it's typically with elevation events ahh ok well Tolland is certainly due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder where any little screwzone will be? Not that someone gets 7" while others get 20", but it seemingly could be two jackpots. One with the intense forcing and waa in CT and up through adjacent RI and MA, and the other perhaps further nw, and associated with mid level frontogenesis and even a trowal feature wrapping in from NNE. I just wonder how this will all play out, but it's probably safe to say, many near the BOS and PVD corridor on west will see at least a foot. I could extend this to Bob, but the NAM makes me a little uneasy for that area. It still could be possible with such a mega front end, or of the SREFs verify. When the CT River Valley is on the fringe of the best forcing and winds stay NNW or NW for a portion of the storm we can really get hosed. We could definitely be a screw zone after the initial thump. I would not be shocked to see 10" or 12" here if a more easterly solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are these updated every half hour? It changed just after 3, then just now again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to try to sleep from 8p-1a today. I really hope I can do that or else tomorrow is gonna be lonnnng. benadryl FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know, I was just going to comment on that 18z and how it is even heavier for us up here in Mass, now including us in the giggedy giggedy zone of CT. Boy – this is going to be a fantastic case study for the can’t snow winter of 2010-2011 when the inevitable takes place and this misses somehow. I refuse to believe it is going to snow until this storm is by the boards. Once this season proves it can pull it off without bending us over and giving us some kind of permutational cosmic dildoing, only then will I believe that it will ever happen going forward. Put up or shut up. No mysterious shredding when we only get 4-6” is allowed here, either. And I don’t want to hear how ‘yeah, but some areas got careemed this or that’ – NOPE. Put up or shut up. On the other hand, all the meteorology I can apply tells me that the NAM is on to this and that all this digging and digging to find the worst possible outcome run, is really more of two factors: 1) Desperately needing a defensive chain to hold one down so they won't fall into the blackhole of forecast model attributed delusional hope; but is unfortunately bad logic and bad forecast philosophy.. 2) Just being a negative nell by trait and also ....some folks may be genuinely petty enough (I think) to want to erode mirth when they sense it in others. Either way, there are huge reasons in play that argue loudly for a massive deal here. From NAM superior finite grid spacing detecting thermal interfaces, convection, and frontal slope nexus' with q-vector (difluence) forcing, better, to the fact that the GFS being east has trended west on every run since 00z whie the NAM for all intents and purposes has held serve is such a friggen red fist in the face here people - Gee wiz! Blizzard WILL be achieved by the way - not sure what all that reticents to pull that trigger is about. the 12z and now 18Z NAM (if using this model - which I recommend at this point) are both flagging 2, 6-hourly intervals of 30-38kt sustained middle BL flow that will have no problem mixing down to produce your frequent gusts. Combining that with 2-6"/hr in CSI banding... whatever. do with it what you want. Low end bliz, severe in a few isolated spots... Skirting in for 1.9 hours, out for .34, in for .56, and it's not a blizzard - SEE. Fu, whatever - no forecast can be that exact and looking at these QPF and wind profiles there is no other responsible way to deem that. I don't care though really... I just got word my office is pre-emptively closing doors tomorrow, so I'll be working in the warm coze of my home. Fridge right there, algorithms on the PC... 20+ inches of rage out the window. Fun stuff And with 3 nigths and counting of CPC PNA gains to better than neutral, the door is open to make this next month REAL meaningful. BTW, get a load of the minus 40 at 850mb air on the D10 Euro. The warmly biased Euro... wtf - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that dry slot better not show its head in PVD-BOS corridor. but I guess I have to ask for how long? Look as far as the dry slot goes, this thing is so front end loaded, do not worry about it, if anything as the dry slot passes over on the backside you could get punished by a Gwave or a tremendous instability burst. Cmon partygoers, SHOT HOUR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's weird. A lot of times I've pegged NE CT as the jackpot it winds up being in the hills west of HFD. The models always seem to underdo the NW extent of the strongest mid level frontogenesis and coupled with an upslope flow from the CT River valley they always seem to do well. Well this is only my second blockbuster storm here in CT (not gonna count the Dec 26th blizzard considering the busted snowfall forecasts)...so perhaps I'm making a rookie mistake by targeting the NE hills. But...I'm gonna stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to try to sleep from 8p-1a today. I really hope I can do that or else tomorrow is gonna be lonnnng. I was planning to sleep from like 5 PM to midnight but then I realized the Bruins play tonight...but I really have to sleep. I have to call my boss now, I bet he needs me to work today and I have no energy to do so...either that or he wants me to work tomorrow which I certainly won't have the energy to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 every model wobbles or shifts track a bit. And any 25 mile shift in track is going to make a huge difference in the fringe places. Sure I would not be happy if I was in NW Jersey right now, but they were a fringe location from the beginning How is posting a 24 or 36 hr 500mb map from the NAM vs it's own init at that time bashing? Or pointing out that at 6 hours it hasn't agreed with itself in 2 weeks at 500? The last 3 runs the NAM shifted the vorticity to come in line with the other models very early on but insists on hanging a black hole just off the coast of jersey, just a few hours later each of the last couple of runs. This is precisely what it did a few days ago. Will it stop sure maybe. But look at NYC, look at NY, look at PA and NJ. Aren't they much closer to verification time than we are? IE, so when we say "well it's 24 hours away"...it was 24 hours away from them when the 6z ran then the 12z etc...and cut QPF back inside and closer to the actual event. You'd feel a lot differently about the NAM consistency if you were closer to the event geographically in places like EPA/NJ where per the NAM things just changed pretty steadily. IF the NAM continues the last couple of runs trends and pushes back the spinup a few hours later you'll have a GFS ENS/Euro type setup. The other day the NAM was so bad it got the QPF right finally 6 hours before the flakes fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well this is only my second blockbuster storm here in CT (not gonna count the Dec 26th blizzard considering the busted snowfall forecasts)...so perhaps I'm making a rookie mistake by targeting the NE hills. But...I'm gonna stick with it. Could definitely happen.... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GFS STILL SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE UPCOMING STORM WHILE LAST NIGHTS ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE NAM. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z... OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TAKES A RIGHT TURN AT CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HEAD EAST...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS SOME BANDING DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. They will update tonight or overnight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to try to sleep from 8p-1a today. I really hope I can do that or else tomorrow is gonna be lonnnng. I take it you're at the station tomorrow? In studio or on remote duty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well this is only my second blockbuster storm here in CT (not gonna count the Dec 26th blizzard considering the busted snowfall forecasts)...so perhaps I'm making a rookie mistake by targeting the NE hills. But...I'm gonna stick with it. The Dec 09 storm was just so bizarre with the area it slammed too. I'm excited to see how this plays out and am hopefully we can cash in on some point of pivot point after the mid level low forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GFS STILL SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE UPCOMING STORM WHILE LAST NIGHTS ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE NAM. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z... OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TAKES A RIGHT TURN AT CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HEAD EAST...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS SOME BANDING DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Uggh, can someone post HPC amounts updated for Maine? One looked old I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought: It should gradually get better for you up there each run. The difference with this little dance this time won't be east/miss, the escape route is just a delayed jump so it ends up north. I'd totally expect it to keep trending in your favor especially in eastern 1/2 of NNE. Just loop through any QPF output from any model the last few days and you can see the gradual sweep from sw to ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I take it you're at the station tomorrow? In studio or on remote duty? Out live. In at 3 a.m.... not sure where we're going but I'll be somewhere near Hartford I think. Probably will stick around the station until 3pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was planning to sleep from like 5 PM to midnight but then I realized the Bruins play tonight...but I really have to sleep. I have to call my boss now, I bet he needs me to work today and I have no energy to do so...either that or he wants me to work tomorrow which I certainly won't have the energy to do. dude bruins and snow tracking FTW possible biggest storm to hit CT in forever thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there a reason why they don't make the color changes coincide with the scale??? The way BOX does it seems just weird... NWS maps: PHI: OKX: BOX: GYX: cant find the link to BTV http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The first complex of heavy snow doesn't make it as far north before detereorating / pulled east by the developing mid level low, so totals are a little less toward NW MA and SW NH Yes. the NAM is initially further EAST as its tracking up and then does a later hook to the left...which is why the qpf is lower for W CT up through NW MA and SW NH. It still absolutely pounds eastern half of SNE because of that late hook which makes up for any initial further east position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know, I was just going to comment on that 18z and how it is even heavier for us up here in Mass, now including us in the giggedy giggedy zone of CT. Boy – this is going to be a fantastic case study for the can’t snow winter of 2010-2011 when the inevitable takes place and this misses somehow. I refuse to believe it is going to snow until this storm is by the boards. Once this season proves it can pull it off without bending us over and giving us some kind of permutational cosmic dildoing, only then will I believe that it will ever happen going forward. Put up or shut up. No mysterious shredding when we only get 4-6” is allowed here, either. And I don’t want to hear how ‘yeah, but some areas got careemed this or that’ – NOPE. Put up or shut up. On the other hand, all the meteorology I can apply tells me that the NAM is on to this and that all this digging and digging to find the worst possible outcome run, is really more of two factors: 1) Desperately needing a defensive chain to hold one down so they won't fall into the blackhole of forecast model attributed delusional hope; but is unfortunately bad logic and bad forecast philosophy.. 2) Just being a negative nell by trait and also ....some folks may be genuinely petty enough (I think) to want to erode mirth when they sense it in others. Either way, there are huge reasons in play that argue loudly for a massive deal here. From NAM superior finite grid spacing detecting thermal interfaces, convection, and frontal slope nexus' with q-vector (difluence) forcing, better, to the fact that the GFS being east has trended west on every run since 00z whie the NAM for all intents and purposes has held serve is such a friggen red fist in the face here people - Gee wiz! Blizzard WILL be achieved by the way - not sure what all that reticents to pull that trigger is about. the 12z and now 18Z NAM (if using this model - which I recommend at this point) are both flagging 2, 6-hourly intervals of 30-38kt sustained middle BL flow that will have no problem mixing down to produce your frequent gusts. Combining that with 2-6"/hr in CSI banding... whatever. do with it what you want. Low end bliz, severe in a few isolated spots... Skirting in for 1.9 hours, out for .34, in for .56, and it's not a blizzard - SEE. Fu, whatever - no forecast can be that exact and looking at these QPF and wind profiles there is no other responsible way to deem that. I don't care though really... I just got word my office is pre-emptively closing doors tomorrow, so I'll be working in the warm coze of my home. Fridge right there, algorithms on the PC... 20+ inches of rage out the window. Fun stuff :thumbsup... And with 3 nigths and counting of CPC PNA gains to better than neutral, the door is open to make this next month REAL meaningful. BTW, get a load of the minus 40 at 850mb air on the D10 Euro. The warmly biased Euro... wtf - Thanks Tip NAM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well this is only my second blockbuster storm here in CT (not gonna count the Dec 26th blizzard considering the busted snowfall forecasts)...so perhaps I'm making a rookie mistake by targeting the NE hills. But...I'm gonna stick with it. Target the hills barely north of me, too - they cash in like nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was planning to sleep from like 5 PM to midnight but then I realized the Bruins play tonight...but I really have to sleep. I have to call my boss now, I bet he needs me to work today and I have no energy to do so...either that or he wants me to work tomorrow which I certainly won't have the energy to do. Bruins will play again very soon. Priorities, young man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that dry slot better not show its head in PVD-BOS corridor. but I guess I have to ask for how long? I think that's basically the line to which it pushes before getting mixed out/precip pushing back in from the west. Those that manage to stay in the precip will do very, very well. Those that don't should still see a solid thump on the front end and a few inches on top on the wrap-around, but the middle part they miss out on will be the defining factor between a nice snowstorm and "Holy ****." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 dude bruins and snow tracking FTW possible biggest storm to hit CT in forever thundersnow um...1888 called....it would like a word with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes. the NAM is initially further EAST as its tracking up and then does a later hook to the left...which is why the qpf is lower for W CT up through NW MA and SW NH. It still absolutely pounds eastern half of SNE because of that late hook which makes up for any initial further east position. Will could you see a deform band set up in cne or nne? And do you see this is a Feb 5 2001 pushed like 50 miles east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 dude bruins and snow tracking FTW possible biggest storm to hit CT in forever thundersnow Not so confident SW CT will be part of that. Will definitely be a close one. Boy does HVN look like a good spot for this storm though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 dude bruins and snow tracking FTW possible biggest storm to hit CT in forever thundersnow I don't think I'll ever beat the 27.5'' from Feb 06 Bruins will play again very soon. Priorities, young man! Hockey is like my second life...I LOVE hockey. I need to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BDL may come up with 30" from this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My very first post here, I live up in the Worcester hills and feeling good about this storm. Anyways, I've noticed talk elsewhere regarding the Low over the Ohio Valley being stronger than modeled and this possibly throwing a monkey wrench into our big storm chances. You guys clearly know your stuff, anyone seriously concerned about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 every model wobbles or shifts track a bit. And any 25 mile shift in track is going to make a huge difference in the fringe places. Sure I would not be happy if I was in NW Jersey right now, but they were a fringe location from the beginning Leesun, all I'm saying is the NAM has been the least consistent of any model aloft. If the roles were reversed and the Euro and GFS were showing this mega hit and the RGEM/NAM were not it wouldn't even be a question, there would be a thousand reasons why the euro is best inside of 48 hours etc. Hey I hope you're right I'd like to see this craziness on the NAM, but the NAM is about 3 hours away in terms of timing at 5h and it's then much closer to the Euro.GFS The difference between today and 3 days ago is the m/l was already on an ENE trajectory so when the jump came later than modeled we ended up with the CCB between here and N.S. This whole system is moving NE, so the only difference would be to focus more QPF into E NNE and less to the SW but nobody should get screwed aside of the fringes. Kind of what it has done the last two runs. To assume it would continue is foolish, assuming it won't is foolish too in light of the other guidance saying it will. We just need to way and see the radar/wv/0z. The surface track is going to be independent of what goes on at 500/700 to some degree in terms of dry slotting and what not. Let's hope the bleed NE stops with the 18z GFS and we see a tick back. But this isn't about a miss vs hit, it's about the NAM historic snows and the euro historic snows just a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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