Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well I don't think anyone is going all NAM right now. NAM has burned many of us too many times. I feel comfortable with 12"+ now even without the NAM in my corner. Upton is As much fun as I'm having being in the NAM jackpot two runs in a row...I have a hard time expecting much more than 14" or so here. I'm a weenie...so I will be bummed if the jackpot misses me by a a short distance to my east...but in my heart of hearts I suspect that is what ends up happening when all is said in done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I'm sorry, we need to preserve this: ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CTZ005>012-120400- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 245 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS LATE TONIGHT...TURNING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN CT. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. EDIT: the best part is "locally higher"...wow, Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What happens if the GFS stays it's stubborn self at 18Z? I think it will, wich indicates the NAm my be fired up too mus at its' typical 18Z time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I'm sorry, we need to preserve this: Locally higher amounts possible is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton is As much fun as I'm having being in the NAM jackpot two runs in a row...I have a hard time expecting much more than 14" or so here. I'm a weenie...so I will be bummed if the jackpot misses me by a a short distance to my east...but in my heart of hearts I suspect that is what ends up happening when all is said in done. In any given area I think 12-14" is a reasonable expectation. Someone gets 15-20 I just don't know where it is. FWIW our WRF model prints out 16-20 jackpot from BDL-MMK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton just upped Fairfield, Middlesex, New London and New Haven counties to 18-24"+ with thunderstorms So SO sick... I'm a bit worried about 18" verifying in the extreme W part of the state and the cutoff between BDR and HPN is pretty big... But I bet they are taking into account upslope and higher ratios and snowstorm climo. As I had in my map last night (will be making one final call later today), I am becoming increasingly confident in a 2ndary max in the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. a 4-5"/hr deformation band oftentimes CRUSHES the western edge of these Miller Bs. Shades of February 5th, 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tauton box has not updated tonight yet that one is from 1 pm NWS maps: PHI: OKX: BOX: GYX: cant find the link to BTV http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I still can't believe were continuing to see the NAM spit out these numbers but it's been pretty damn steadfast with it. Wonder if we see the 18z GFS trend upward a bit? 65 knot 8H U winds 6 SD s off normal will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah I'm sorry, we need to preserve this: EDIT: the best part is "locally higher"...wow, Upton. when you setting the alarm for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So SO sick... I'm a bit worried about 18" verifying in the extreme W part of the state and the cutoff between BDR and HPN is pretty big... But I bet they are taking into account upslope and higher ratios and snowstorm climo. As I had in my map last night (will be making one final call later today), I am becoming increasingly confident in a 2ndary max in the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. a 4-5"/hr deformation band oftentimes CRUSHES the western edge of these Miller Bs. Shades of February 5th, 2001 Are you in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As much as I 'd like for that to happen..i gotta keep it in check and still think 14 to myself i dont know how long you've been living in CT but its hard to believe 14 inches is the max you've ever seen Blizz. hopefully the NAM has the right idea and you see 16+ (or as we say up here, >40cm ! ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah not sure I like that idea. I would have just left it - don't think we'll have a widespread foot tonight and an additional one tomorrow morning. This thing is forecast to wind down midday, so two feet in roughly 12 hours? I don't know why people think it can't happen. These mesoscale bands are intense. Dec 19 2009 dropped 20" in my area in <12 hours. about 7pm-4am...9 hours. Most intense snow intensity/duration combo I've witnessed. It will happen somewhere tonight...I guarantee it. I agree Upton is a little bold by trying to pinpoint exactly where it sets up...but don't think it can't happen. My guess is it does happen...although perhaps 20 miles further east than Upton is currently forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton is As much fun as I'm having being in the NAM jackpot two runs in a row...I have a hard time expecting much more than 14" or so here. I'm a weenie...so I will be bummed if the jackpot misses me by a a short distance to my east...but in my heart of hearts I suspect that is what ends up happening when all is said in done. you must believe!!!! and it will happen :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 65 knot 8H U winds 6 SD s off normal will do that Yes sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't know why people think it can't happen. These mesoscale bands are intense. Dec 19 2009 dropped 20" in my area in <12 hours. about 7pm-4am...9 hours. Most intense snow intensity/duration combo I've witnessed. It will happen somewhere tonight...I guarantee it. I agree Upton is a little bold by trying to pinpoint exactly where it sets up...but don't think it can't happen. My guess is it does happen...although perhaps 20 miles further east than Upton is currently forecasting. Feb 06 I had about 20" in 6 hours in Hartford lol Obviously that stuff is rare and you have to nowcast it... certainly wouldn't forecast it even 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NWS maps: PHI: OKX: BOX: GYX: cant find the link to BTV http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Locally higher amounts possible is key LOL to reading that AFTER my edit to the post :snowman: when you setting the alarm for tomorrow? I don't know if I'll be able to go to sleep at this point! I love their confidence, but I don't quite share it yet. Not that much. It's gonna be close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i dont know how long you've been living in CT but its hard to believe 14 inches is the max you've ever seen Blizz. hopefully the NAM has the right idea and you see 16+ (or as we say up here, >40cm ! ). Tolland has seen over 14 several times..just not since I've lived there (2000) When my wife and I were dating they got around 18-20 in the Dec 92 storm and also in Dec 95 ...but it's typically with elevation events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 balls deep in pow on thursday! I will not even bother but ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to try to sleep from 8p-1a today. I really hope I can do that or else tomorrow is gonna be lonnnng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In any given area I think 12-14" is a reasonable expectation. Someone gets 15-20 I just don't know where it is. FWIW our WRF model prints out 16-20 jackpot from BDL-MMK lol agree 100%...somebody in the eastern half of CT is cashing in big tonight. pinpointing it anymore than that is difficult...but Upton went ahead and stuck their neck out on it. My gut still says slightly further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, not angry- just a discussion between people w/ opposing views. I do not understand why you are constantly bashing the NAM. Actually I do. I does hav a way of being out to lunch sometimes. But at times you have to respect it. I think it verifies closer than the globals here. Especially when it's in agreement w/ the WRF and RGEM How is posting a 24 or 36 hr 500mb map from the NAM vs it's own init at that time bashing? Or pointing out that at 6 hours it hasn't agreed with itself in 2 weeks at 500? The last 3 runs the NAM shifted the vorticity to come in line with the other models very early on but insists on hanging a black hole just off the coast of jersey, just a few hours later each of the last couple of runs. This is precisely what it did a few days ago. Will it stop sure maybe. But look at NYC, look at NY, look at PA and NJ. Aren't they much closer to verification time than we are? IE, so when we say "well it's 24 hours away"...it was 24 hours away from them when the 6z ran then the 12z etc...and cut QPF back inside and closer to the actual event. You'd feel a lot differently about the NAM consistency if you were closer to the event geographically in places like EPA/NJ where per the NAM things just changed pretty steadily. IF the NAM continues the last couple of runs trends and pushes back the spinup a few hours later you'll have a GFS ENS/Euro type setup. The other day the NAM was so bad it got the QPF right finally 6 hours before the flakes fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that dry slot better not show its head in PVD-BOS corridor. but I guess I have to ask for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tolland has seen over 14 several times..just not since I've lived there (2000) When my wife and I were dating they got around 18-20 in the Dec 92 storm and also in Dec 95 ...but it's typically with elevation events Jan 96 and Feb 83 are probably the other 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are you in CT? Yes, I'm in Ridgefield, Ct. heading back to the city Wed. evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wonder where any little screwzone will be? Not that someone gets 7" while others get 20", but it seemingly could be two jackpots. One with the intense forcing and waa in CT and up through adjacent RI and MA, and the other perhaps further nw, and associated with mid level frontogenesis and even a trowal feature wrapping in from NNE. I just wonder how this will all play out, but it's probably safe to say, many near the BOS and PVD corridor on west will see at least a foot. I could extend this to Bob, but the NAM makes me a little uneasy for that area. It still could be possible with such a mega front end, or if the SREFs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, I guess I've decided. 20" snowstorm> Fridays Midterm Theres only so many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 agree 100%...somebody in the eastern half of CT is cashing in big tonight. pinpointing it anymore than that is difficult...but Upton went ahead and stuck their neck out on it. My gut still says slightly further east. It's weird. A lot of times I've pegged NE CT as the jackpot it winds up being in the hills west of HFD. The models always seem to underdo the NW extent of the strongest mid level frontogenesis and coupled with an upslope flow from the CT River valley they always seem to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 cant find the link to BTV Here it is: http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, It came further north before it goes NE, It just keeps getting better......... Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GFS STILL SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE UPCOMING STORM WHILE LAST NIGHTS ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE NAM. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z... OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TAKES A RIGHT TURN AT CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HEAD EAST...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS SOME BANDING DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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