October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, JACKASS said:

 

 

The Texas heat leads to memory loss..

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not this time, down here it’s our time… it’s our time down here!!

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not this time, down here it’s our time… it’s our time down here!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I'm right at 600, thoughts for me?

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

I think you’re fine there.  There’s always a few trees down with steady sustained winds but I don’t see major issues for Southern Vermont.

[Prismshine Productions]

I think you’re fine there.  There’s always a few trees down with steady sustained winds but I don’t see major issues for Southern Vermont.

Thanks buddy, thinking gusts 20-25 but might be underselling since NWS Albany put in their disco a 30-40% chance of gusts 30-35. Water biggest factor as always.

[CoastalWx]

Hmm. Nobody picked up that quote? Maybe foresthillswx did.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmm. Nobody picked up that quote? Maybe foresthillswx did.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Outside of coastal flood impacts it’s whole lot of meh

Yes, but much needed rain.

[ScituateMA]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmm. Nobody picked up that quote? Maybe foresthillswx did.

Weenies never say die. 

Sold my house in the flood zone. Looking forward to enjoying this one from drier ground. LOL

[Prismshine Productions]

Wide right

[Prismshine Productions]

Crawling

[H2Otown_WX]

NAM with a dud to kick off 00z. Anyone who thinks this thing is a slam dunk to hit us directly may be in for a letdown.

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

NAM with a dud to kick off 00z. Anyone who thinks this thing is a slam dunk to hit us directly may be in for a letdown.

hopefully it occludes way south, then is safely kicked out!

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

NAM with a dud to kick off 00z. Anyone who thinks this thing is a slam dunk to hit us directly may be in for a letdown.

Um... It's the NAM with 3-4 days to go. Are you seriously putting stock in this run (whether it's good or bad).

[OrangeCTWX]

ICON with the Martha’s Vineyard “landfall”.  RGEM east of its 18z run.

The Icon “landfall” and track actually gave me some flashbacks to Henri. Though I know these are completely different lol

[MJO812]

Gfs is a terrible model

[ineedsnow]

0z seemed pretty meh overall 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Um... It's the NAM with 3-4 days to go. Are you seriously putting stock in this run (whether it's good or bad).

Not really 3-4 days out...the storm is only 48-60 hours from forming. Whatever impacts we have could be 72-96 hours away but we're getting into useful range of the NAM imo since the phasing that so many Euro runs had was supposed to happen in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not really 3-4 days out...the storm is only 48-60 hours from forming. Whatever impacts we have could be 72-96 hours away but we're getting into useful range of the NAM imo since the phasing that so many Euro runs had was supposed to happen in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

6z NAM is meh

[Modfan2]

Latest run feel like a winter storm modeling; models lose the storm to allow local bridge jumping only for them to bring the storm back a d become a nowcast event

[ineedsnow]

6Z RGEM came west a bit and a little stronger.. still SE of the cape though

[ineedsnow]

6z ICON also looks good

[CoastalWx]

Euro shit itself going hundreds of miles. AI ticked NE too. Overall weaker trends. Was kind of surprised. 

[CoastalWx]

That was a glue factory performance by euro op.

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but much needed rain.

No rain needed down here

[CoastalWx]

AI gfs looks good here 

[ineedsnow]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI gfs looks good here 

6z GEFS shifting back west a bit

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Latest run feel like a winter storm modeling; models lose the storm to allow local bridge jumping only for them to bring the storm back a d become a nowcast event

I hope it rains a good deal, but I couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the "wind" and all of those fraud threats.....unless you live right at the shore. I know the people that sounded the alarms are going to inevitably cry foul based on perceived modeling failures, but the fact of that matter is that it's September and excitement is an exceedingly rare climatological phenomenon around these parts. This time of year, I'd be content to get my rocks off to drought relief and seeing the decadal precip hole fill as winter nears.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro shit itself going hundreds of miles. AI ticked NE too. Overall weaker trends. Was kind of surprised. 

I mentioned yesterday it's often overamped....I mean, it probably will have had the better idea when all is said and done, but it will also probably have capitulated to an extent relative to the more ominous runs.