Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[dendrite]

This winter is already delivering anger and we haven’t reached the equinox yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41.9 this AM.

[ineedsnow]

Early morning rainbow at wally world in leominster 

[CoastalWx]

You wonder if these temps last through January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You wonder if these undies last through January. 

I feel like Allison would rather not find out....

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Early morning rainbow at wally world in leominster 

Was Liam at the end of it?

[MJO812]

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

[CoastalWx]

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro  ai.  Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT

** ALERT ** 1ST  POSSIBLE Coastal LOW  of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS  Cold air    Blast SEPT 26-28

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro  ai.  Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You wonder if these temps last through January. 

Certainly hope so so I don’t have to turn on the heat. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Also, is today the torch?

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct 

EPS AI looks devastating 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was Liam at the end of it?

I think you both were 

[ineedsnow]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro  ai.  Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

Weathernerds has it for tropical

https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html

[Brewbeer]

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Also, is today the torch?

if your definition of "torch" covers everything from -5 to +10, then yes, yes it is, today is a "torch"

67/60 in the 'hood 

[Brian5671]

72 here as more humid air makes inroads...sun coming out too

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Weathernerds has it for tropical

https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html

Fairly active in the Atlantic. 

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fairly active in the Atlantic. 

We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. 

What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived. 

[Ginx snewx]

Endless summer fail

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a torch in the other deep layer synoptic metrics ... just not at the surface.

It's unusual to have 590 dm non-hydrostats and keep it less than 80 in an offshore flow.

I've actually seem this sort of oddity with increasing frequency in recent years.   Not sure if it's a Gretta or not but ... it's when non-hydrostats and even the hydrostatic heights (thickness) are elevated enough for very warm (relative to season...) yet the surface is some significantly blunted below the potential. 

The lower troposphere is oddly lagging behind the mid/upper air sounding.  interesting

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro  ai.  Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

I have weathernet3 data available on my ginxweather.com website 

 

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a torch in the other deep layer synoptic metrics ... just not at the surface.

It's unusual to have 590 dm non-hydrostats and keep it less than 80 in an offshore flow.

I've actually seem this sort of oddity with increasing frequency in recent years.   Not sure if it's a Gretta or not but ... it's when non-hydrostats and even the hydrostatic heights (thickness) are elevated enough for very warm (relative to season...) yet the surface is some significantly blunted below the potential. 

The lower troposphere is oddly lagging behind the mid/upper air sounding.  interesting

The potential is certainly there to be quite above average and this is the time of year (along with spring) where one needs to be extremely careful with using model 2M temperature output to forecast temperatures. I mean I don't think this is as big of an issue in our region but you look at the midwestern states this time of year and model 2M temps (and MOS) can bust 10-20F too low. 

Anyways, the look has the potential to be quite warm, however, I think there is going to be potential for more "blocky" or BDCF risk moving into the second half of the month. The other thing we're starting to see too is with stronger shortwaves coming down from Canada, that upper-level ridge which has been locked in since July is starting to get beat up. That GFS "cold blast" which DT was probably referring too I think is just typical extended range GFS overblown crap but we'll probably end up seasonal for temps...and maybe a bit below if we get the BDCF riddled pattern 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output.

Joke ( or not ) aside ... something like 'weather modification' may be down the road of Quantum Computing.

If and when the QC cores start actually understanding all the quantum states of a system simultaneously - largely purported to be how they 'quantum compute' - it doesn't intuitively seem like sending spin instructions/communicating to the matrix ( so to speak ) is a very big leap beyond that. 

We had a course work in 'chaos' in nature vs weather modeling in FAST II back in the headier university days up at UML.   ...Jesus the dinosaurs were big back then...  The principle idea was that weather modeling would one day hit a limit ... the speculation back then in the 1990s was that it would probably be between 5 and 7... beyond that, the permutation horizon was not readable, because it was based up emergence' that were yet to occur.  

That may still be true, yet ... won't matter.  Because we don't have to know the future any longer.  Philosophically, there's no need for the preparation if were programming the winds. In other words, conventional model become a thing of the past. 

What a weird state that would be.  For those that are born in such an era, not so much. But if one remembers a time when "pita-flops" were required to multi-modal processing of navier-stokes at grid points... and the trillions in tech and satellite that went into it all ...        paper weights.

 

[ineedsnow]

Its a start 

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. 

What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived. 

The GFS is useless, but yeah, that’s basics my peak season forecast. I’m out on a limb with 3 H 1 MH but I think the windows will open.

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Its a start 

First flakes at SLK? We kicked things off on 10/31 last year and were off to the races not too long after. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Topped out at 80F. Felt warm comparatively to what we just had.