August 2026

[psv88]

57 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

Man. If there is even a small chance of rain this summer......best believe it's gonna rain. 

Absolutely. Rainy day on the south shore. Good amount of thunder. 

[SI Mailman]

This cell puts me over 2.5 inches for the day

[NEG NAO]

Going to be a fun rush hour - plenty of heavy precip - storms moving in from the west - southwest towards the metro - much of NE NJ under water already

[TriPol]

I’ve lost count of how many flash flood warnings there have been for NYC this summer.

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Going to be a fun rush hour - plenty of heavy precip - storms moving in from the west - southwest towards the metro - much of NE NJ under water already

Looks like most of it is staying south

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

and now this nino is going to raise our baseline again and make cool summers even more unlikely

Let's be honest though 90 percent of the population loves hot summers. People wait for 9 months for hot summers so they can go to the beach. The last thing they want is spring or fall weather in the summer. They drive the economy too. And out of the 10 percent who like cool and rainy summers 90 percent are on here lol.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's be honest though 90 percent of the population loves hot summers. People wait for 9 months for hot summers so they can go to the beach. The last thing they want is spring or fall weather in the summer. They drive the economy too. And out of the 10 percent who like cool and rainy summers 90 percent are on here lol.

Do they like smoke filled skies everyday in the summer too because that's the future. 2023 and this summer are not one-offs. 

And people will tolerate heat to a point. Once it becomes excessive then it's no longer summer weather, it's a death trap. 

[straphanger]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

what is a "Deflector Shield" ?

Star Trek terminology.

Collected all of 0.04" over the last two hours...there is some rogue thunder and lightning in eastern Queens but failing to amount to much here.  Even saw a patch of blue sky to the north and east around 1700.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The numbers show that we didn’t get the cooler developing super El Niño summer that was common in the past.

We were significantly warmer than 2023. It was also warmer than 2015 which also didn’t have the extreme 100°+ heat that we had from May into mid-July.

Most of the years you cited were the summers which followed the El Niño events and not before. 

The entire CONUS was too warm to allow a cooler summer here  like 1972, 1982, and 1997.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to see what kind of pattern we had in late August 1948 and late August and early September 1953 with the kind of late season heat that hasn't been matched since.  Speaking of hot August weather that was some real multi-day triple digit heat! If those patterns happened now what would the temperatures be?

As far as el nino heat is concerned how does this summer compare to 1991, 1994 and 2002, those are my benchmark summers for el nino heat.

There is some speculation that the type of heat we had between 1944 and 1955 and 1966 which really has not been matched since had to do with nuke testing, specifically hydrogen bomb testing. 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Do they like smoke filled skies everyday in the summer too because that's the future. 2023 and this summer are not one-offs. 

And people will tolerate heat to a point. Once it becomes excessive then it's no longer summer weather, it's a death trap. 

No but they love heat. Just look at where the greatest growth and movement of people is happening, to warmer climates. This can be explained if you look at where humans came from-- Africa.  So we are naturally attuned to a hotter climate. Most of the die offs our species has had were associated with ice ages not heat. If you asked people to chose where to live strictly based on weather most people would pick hot summer over cold winter every time. They just don't want to pay excessive heating bills. Look at it this way the warmer the winter is the less the amount of fossil fuels that will be used. This summer was not hot not on the level of the truly historic summers I often reference. Speaking of death traps the highest number of heat related deaths happened in years like 1980 and 1995. We really have not had that kind of widespread coast to coast heat that lasts for months since then. Flooding is far more of a concern now. I think next year we will see that kind of heat though and hopefully not the deaths or the smoke. I hate to say this but the forests need to be trimmed back.

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thunderstorms are likely into early tonight. Some areas could still see flooding downpours. 

Following the frontal passage, tomorrow through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -9.83 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.553 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd like to see what kind of pattern we had in late August 1948 and late August and early September 1953 with the kind of late season heat that hasn't been matched since.  Speaking of hot August weather that was some real multi-day triple digit heat! If those patterns happened now what would the temperatures be?

There is some speculation that the type of heat we had between 1944 and 1955 and 1966 which really has not been matched since had to do with nuke testing, specifically hydrogen bomb testing. 

I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009.  

Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July.

Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East. 
 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009.  

Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July.

Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East. 
 

Yes and I think that drought also caused the record heat in the triple digits for multiple days at coastal locations like JFK. That will likely resume next summer after this el Nino ends. I fully expect 90 degree heat to begin early in April next spring and continue through September.  What I don't expect to see are the super heat waves of double digit length we had in years like 1953 and 1993. That did not happen even in 2010. So lots of 90 degree days and multiple 100 degree days next summer even at JFK but probably no 7 day plus heatwaves. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and I think that drought also caused the record heat in the triple digits for multiple days at coastal locations like JFK. That will likely resume next summer after this el Nino ends. I fully expect 90 degree heat to begin early in April next spring and continue through September.  What I don't expect to see are the super heat waves of double digit length we had in years like 1953 or 1993. That did not happen even in 2010. So lots of 90 degree days and multiple 100 degree days next summer even at JFK but probably no 7 day plus heatwaves. 

The wetter climate leading to all these summer flash flood warmings has made it more challenging to sustain extended 90° day counts like in 1988 without clouds or rain interrupting.

The most severe droughts in recent times have been focused out West.

In the old days droughts were often from the Plains into the East. Plus stronger sea breezes due to summer circulation changes also interrupt the 90° day runs.

But overall 90° day counts have been increasing just inland from the sea breeze fronts.

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like most of it is staying south

The stuff that was coming in from the west really fizzled out. It appears that we're done. It ended up being pretty early activity today. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Do they like smoke filled skies everyday in the summer too because that's the future. 2023 and this summer are not one-offs. 

And people will tolerate heat to a point. Once it becomes excessive then it's no longer summer weather, it's a death trap. 

Yeah I don't know many people that like 95 degrees and humid. Most people complain when it's that hot. I think most summer lovers want 85 degrees with low humidity.