Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crushed 

RW++ w/ no thunder observed? Let us know! 

The HRRR ydy suggested stuff would linger/redevelop after midnight today, but it was right along the S Coast.  It's more N, and look in CT and far SW MA.  You have these li'l cells developing, moving SE, while high level anvil pcpn areas are moving E! 

"Pseudo-PRE" event for CT last 12 hr for the big rains coming??
 

[vortex95]

Last evening, a PDS SVR was issued for Block Island.  However, the warning stated 60 mph gusts.  That is not PDS level (74 mph I believe is).  Any insights?
 

[ineedsnow]

EURO also with a big flood threat.. someone will get crushed 

[ineedsnow]

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You can really see the blossoming of the R+ by 48 hr on the 06z HRRR.  This corresponds w/ a sig ramp up of S and SE winds 925-700 mb (40-45 kt) and a nose of 2"+ PWATs.  WCB/WAA wing in summer?, CoastalWx? (don't say MEH!).

 

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You can really see the blossoming of the R+ by 48 hr on the 06z HRRR.  This corresponds w/ a sig ramp up of S and SE winds 925-700 mb (40-45 kt) and a nose of 2"+ PWATs.  WCB/WAA wing in summer?, CoastalWx? (don't say MEH!).

 

I have Monday and Tuesday off.. if its bad enough I might have to take a drive to check it out 

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I have Monday and Tuesday off.. if its bad enough I might have to take a drive to check it out 

 Not be a "dampener" on the event... 

Two things should mitigate the extent/severity of the flooding:

1) Antecedent conditions are very dry and water levels in lakes, rivers, and streams are low. This is huge factor in this case.  How wet or dry antecedent conditions are in a region when big rains occur can make the difference between modest flooding and record flooding!  So in this case, we have a plus.

2) The event will be drawn out over 48 hr.  6" of rain in 6 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 48 hr, as one example, at least when it comes to flash flooding. For large-scale river flooding, this often is a problem, but from item 1 above, rivers are starting low so there is considerable buffer before sig flood stage.

Not that there will not be any flooding, but the point here is that not all big events are created equal in terms of potential impact. Some may go, "8" of rain coming???!!! OMG, that means massive flooding!!!" Not necessarily. This is why I emphasize context and perspective so much.  W/ wx events, and many other things for the matter, it is *not* "one-size-fits-all!" The ppl out there who know their stuff and how to handle/present data/info will adhere to this essential guideline. As I have mentioned before, communication of risk/threats, not forecast model skill, are the biggest challenge we face these days when it comes to wx events.

[Modfan2]

Missed the T Storms to my south, just rain but at 10pm had a CG out of nowhere that thought for sure hit the house; the dog and I both almost fell off the couch!! 

[ineedsnow]

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

 Not be a "dampener" on the event... 

Two things should mitigate the extent/severity of the flooding:

1) Antecedent conditions are very dry and water levels in lakes, rivers, and streams are low. This is huge factor in this case.  How wet or dry antecedent conditions are in a region when big rains occur can make the difference between modest flooding and record flooding!  So in this case, we have a plus.

2) The event will be drawn out over 48 hr.  6" of rain in 6 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 48 hr, as one example, at least when it comes to flash flooding. For large-scale river flooding, this often is a problem, but from item 1 above, rivers are starting low so there is considerable buffer before sig flood stage.

Not that there will not be any flooding, but the point here is that not all big events are created equal in terms of potential impact. Some may go, "8" of rain coming???!!! OMG, that means massive flooding!!!" Not necessarily. This is why I emphasize context and perspective so much.  W/ wx events, and many other things for the matter, it is *not* "one-size-fits-all!" The ppl out there who know their stuff and how to handle/present data/info will adhere to this essential guideline. As I have mentioned before, communication of risk/threats, not forecast model skill, are the biggest challenge we face these days when it comes to wx events.

ICON EPS is pretty nuts though.. but it is the ICON Eps lol over 6 is very impressive for a mean.. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Some light rains here last night. Maybe .1”

Windows and screen door wide open now. Beautiful AM compared to the last 5.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Some light rains here last night. Maybe .1”

Windows and screen door wide open now. Beautiful AM compared to the last 5.

1.04 garden says TY

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Missed the T Storms to my south, just rain but at 10pm had a CG out of nowhere that thought for sure hit the house; the dog and I both almost fell off the couch!! 

Ask CoastalWx about such an experience when he lived in Dorchester!

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1.04 garden says TY

Nice. Hopefully theses rains pan out this far east.

[kdxken]

45 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON EPS is pretty nuts though.. but it is the ICON Eps lol over 6 is very impressive for a mean.. 

Models have been pretty consistent. Jackpot Southern Connecticut but substantial rain almost to the pike. Looks like more than a half an inch. 

 

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Good wind crossing the Sound.

This is close to the radar site, so the radar sample is low elevation.  That wind is likely legit for those in its path.

Yeah, looks like that was indeed legit!

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

[CT Rain]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol you really dug to find that one.

[dendrite]

Min 56.3°

Kinda chilly

A few models are tickling some precip up here on Tue. Just asking for 0.75”+. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Lol you really dug to find that one.

That’s the future right there

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Lol you really dug to find that one.

The RRFS? Found it quickly . Might not be right but wagons def south for heaviest 

[moneypitmike]

I think I was east of most of the storms last night, though had some good flashes and distant thunder while going to bed.

Based on the puddles outside, we managed at least a decent drink.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0.07 last night.

Something tells me we’re going to be pretty dissapointed with the rain we get in this area. Wagons west 

[Snowedin]

If we could just shift that area of heaviest moisture north and east about 150 miles that’d be fantastic. My arm is getting just a bit sore from trying to keep a bunch of newly planted annuals from withering. At least we’ve had a few quick downpours during this past heat surge to keep the dust clouds at bay. 

[BrianW]

What a summer shaping up. Everything is going to be so green and lush after this deluge. 

 

[Brian5671]

Alot of damage here last night.   No power for 8 hrs.   

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, BrianW said:

What a summer shaping up. Everything is going to be so green and lush after this deluge. 

 

I’m in the jackpot…

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m in the jackpot…

Both NAMS destroy CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Both NAMS destroy CT

Now post the HRRR

[Brian5671]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Now post the HRRR

Further SE but good luck trying to pinpoint the JP

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now post the HRRR

How far would you toss the extended HRRR if this were winter?