Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

How far would you toss the extended HRRR if this were winter?

RRFS and HRRR both say ease way back on widespread massive totals , flood watches etc. . Not saying either are correct , but the convection to the south concerns are real . 

[ineedsnow]

12k NAM gone wild over Mt Tolland 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How far would you toss the extended HRRR if this were winter?

I’d be very worried , but I’d pretend that I wasn’t on here 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Brett on whining to a 3K NAM Jack. 

[WinterWolf]

Yup, the big totals are gonna fluctuate here and there…but a very good soaking looks likely for a good chunk of SNE. 

[kdxken]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup, the big totals are gonna fluctuate here and there…but a very good soaking looks likely for a good chunk of SNE. 

South even worse. Yikes. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

South even worse. Yikes. 

 

When Ryan speaks....I listen. Uh oh!

[Cyclone-68]

That’s an impressive amount of rain in summer especially for a non tropical system 

[powderfreak]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be very worried , but I’d pretend that I wasn’t on here 

That’s a very honest answer, ha.  I feel that.

These events are always going to have surprises when convection is involved. My one pause is always the consistent bullseye for days… nothing is ever that consistent this time of year.

There’s always the haves and have nots… one town gets 0.92” in three rounds of 0.30” rain.  While another town does 3.28” not far away.

 

[OrangeCTWX]

Yaaaa I’m not liking the look of this. I better go clean out my gutters 

[OceanStWx]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Last evening, a PDS SVR was issued for Block Island.  However, the warning stated 60 mph gusts.  That is not PDS level (74 mph I believe is).  Any insights?
 

It is either I issued originally with 70 mph and updated to 60 mph with a SVS and it never got rid of the original language, or I had also clicked the button for "this storm is producing widespread wind damage..." and it triggered that language.

Either way, the extremely dangerous situation is more for the observed nature of severe weather. PDSs are used for watches, emergencies are the tornado/severe thunderstorm related warnings.

[JACKASS]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

South even worse. Yikes. 

 

Be happy this didn’t happen 3 days earlier!

[dendrite]

What a day

[dendrite]

Hopefully everyone is surviving all of that Canadian and fireworks smoke. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully everyone is surviving all of that Canadian and fireworks smoke. 

Last night, the wealthy folks with houses on New Silver Beach had themselves a fire a fireworks competition.  The lingering smoke inversion must’ve lasted 30 minutes. 
I was telling my wife,  between the three families setting them off, they must’ve spent a combine $20,000 on fireworks.

   

 

[OrangeCTWX]

At least this should put an end to any drought talks in Connecticut lol 

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

At least this should put an end to any drought talks in Connecticut lol 

No way!  Drought all the time... Lol.  There will be folks complaining by Thursday!!!

[dendrite]

Yeah this should knock CT down from D2 to D1.

D1 usually corresponds to water pouring out of hillsides here. 6” of water in the basement is D0.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just ignore the dry guidance and go with the 2-9” guidance lol. If CT gets an inch or two that does nada for the drought 

[weatherwiz]

idk...I would you would want to see more convective processes involved when talking about potential for these widespread excessive totals some of the short-term models are indicating. I can see 1-3" widespread and then probably a narrow zone where you get maybe 4-5" but that may be more isolated versus widespread. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore the dry guidance and go with the 2-9” guidance lol. If CT gets an inch or two that does nada for the drought 

Well, Greenfield could get shut out entirely, so that’s definitely gonna do nothing for the drought. 

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully everyone is surviving all of that Canadian and fireworks smoke. 

It's making me cough.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, Greenfield could get shut out entirely, so that’s definitely gonna do nothing for the drought. 

Very true. Point being this could be anywhere from a boring, mundane 1” or less to as much as a couple inches in CT. Pretty sure there will not be flooding lol

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore the dry guidance and go with the 2-9” guidance lol. If CT gets an inch or two that does nada for the drought 

Drought??? How much below expected are you for the year?

[kdxken]

Eff the SREF . Don't need the rain.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

The warm front may not even get into SNE at all. Very possible it sets up to where coastal CT across coastal RI and far SE MA get the highest totals (anything greater than 3-4").

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The FF risk is wherever the warm front  sets up. You aren’t getting 10” of deformation rain on 700 warm front. 

You’re good at sniffing these types of events out. Now that you’ve sobered up and they pulled from the bottom of Winni in time.. what do you think ? Widespread , narrow zone , most likely areas etc 

[WinterWolf]

We got between 1-2” last night.  So we aren’t all that dry here currently. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Lol you really dug to find that one.

Friend Kris sent this

Just came southbound on Route 32 and I have never seen anything damage wise like I just saw. It looks like a tornado went through the entire stretch from the 32 connector all the way up to Connecticut College, powerlines down, trees down everywhere. Roads are blocked off in some places and meanwhile at my house there’s not even a leaf that fell off a tree lol