Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[vortex95]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crushed 

RW++ w/ no thunder observed? Let us know! 

The HRRR ydy suggested stuff would linger/redevelop after midnight today, but it was right along the S Coast.  It's more N, and look in CT and far SW MA.  You have these li'l cells developing, moving SE, while high level anvil pcpn areas are moving E! 

"Pseudo-PRE" event for CT last 12 hr for the big rains coming??
 

[vortex95]

Last evening, a PDS SVR was issued for Block Island.  However, the warning stated 60 mph gusts.  That is not PDS level (74 mph I believe is).  Any insights?
 

[ineedsnow]

EURO also with a big flood threat.. someone will get crushed 

[ineedsnow]

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You can really see the blossoming of the R+ by 48 hr on the 06z HRRR.  This corresponds w/ a sig ramp up of S and SE winds 925-700 mb (40-45 kt) and a nose of 2"+ PWATs.  WCB/WAA wing in summer?, CoastalWx? (don't say MEH!).

 

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You can really see the blossoming of the R+ by 48 hr on the 06z HRRR.  This corresponds w/ a sig ramp up of S and SE winds 925-700 mb (40-45 kt) and a nose of 2"+ PWATs.  WCB/WAA wing in summer?, CoastalWx? (don't say MEH!).

 

I have Monday and Tuesday off.. if its bad enough I might have to take a drive to check it out 

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I have Monday and Tuesday off.. if its bad enough I might have to take a drive to check it out 

 Not be a "dampener" on the event... 

Two things should mitigate the extent/severity of the flooding:

1) Antecedent conditions are very dry and water levels in lakes, rivers, and streams are low. This is huge factor in this case.  How wet or dry antecedent conditions are in a region when big rains occur can make the difference between modest flooding and record flooding!  So in this case, we have a plus.

2) The event will be drawn out over 48 hr.  6" of rain in 6 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 48 hr, as one example, at least when it comes to flash flooding. For large-scale river flooding, this often is a problem, but from item 1 above, rivers are starting low so there is considerable buffer before sig flood stage.

Not that there will not be any flooding, but the point here is that not all big events are created equal in terms of potential impact. Some may go, "8" of rain coming???!!! OMG, that means massive flooding!!!" Not necessarily. This is why I emphasize context and perspective so much.  W/ wx events, and many other things for the matter, it is *not* "one-size-fits-all!" The ppl out there who know their stuff and how to handle/present data/info will adhere to this essential guideline. As I have mentioned before, communication of risk/threats, not forecast model skill, are the biggest challenge we face these days when it comes to wx events.