Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[SchaumburgStormer]

Ok gents, keep me up to date with what’s happening locally, and I’ll keep you guys up to date on what’s happening in St Thomas. 

[A-L-E-K]

RIP Sycamore IL

[hawkeye_wx]

There are no flood watches out, yet, but the CAMs are all dumping several inches of rain across parts of the se IA, n IL, ne MO area.

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

mesoanalysis showing over 4ksbcape in n il this afternoon

 

[Possum]

just finished staking all of my tomatoes here in chicago. ready for whatever may come.


.

[Chicago Storm]

we'll try again tomorrow...

[A-L-E-K]

Sad but true

[frostfern]

The SPC has all of western MI under the gun tomorrow evening, but the CAMs are split on how much late night crapvection interferes with returning instability.  None of the CAMs are exact on convective placement now so it’s up in the air.   

Hope I at least get a nice storm this evening if tomorrow turns out to be miss south stank.

[andyhb]

Parameter space near/south of that warm front in the backed surface winds tomorrow is alarming for any semi-discrete storms that can maintain themselves in the area. While there certainly are some caveats such as storm mode, degree of HP dominance given less than ideal venting flow and high PWATs, and prior convection, the high population and potential for relatively fast moving storms makes this likely the most dangerous setup so far this year on paper.

[Chinook]

The NWS is already putting out a few considerable severe thunderstorm warnings in Iowa/Illinois for 70mph wind gusts

[andyhb]

The 3 km NAM has a 100 kt 500 mb max tomorrow in IA, I cannot recall very many systems at all with that in June @RCNYILWX.