Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[MidwestChaser]

What’s the point of making a watch THIS close to the city but not going all the way? The line is heading in that general direction; they’ll just add it later

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Tons of power outages over here, but locally only had 30-40 mph gusts with about 5 minutes of heavy rain. No thunder here. Considering we were at 88/73° I’m surprised everything fell apart as it did. 
 

Eyes turn to the MCS over northern Missouri tonight. If that stays tame and south, tomorrow will be rocking around here. If it blows up and feeds off the nocturnal LLJ tonight and we end up with 2-3 hours of rain then tomorrow will end up a lot like today with more rotation embedded in the discrete cells.

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening.  The caveat is it’s Michigan.

The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence.  It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer.  Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep.  But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

[cyclone77]

DVN gusted to 69mph earlier, MLI hit 55mph.

The Kirksville area of northern/northeast MO is really getting trained this evening.  Gonna be some huge totals overnight if that remains stalled out east/west through that area.