mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:36 PM 39 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air. Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Wednesday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:53 PM 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: Not just snow one day and 70 the next day. Just like 16-17, a Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:18 PM 15 hours ago, Terpeast said: I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air. The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would be a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught. Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 12:49 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:49 AM 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record. Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 12:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:52 AM 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 01:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:32 AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM 47 minutes ago, frd said: Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:55 AM 8 hours ago, mitchnick said: Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well. Also, -3/24/1983 Miller A Gulf coast major snowstorm that crossed over N FL and then offshore the SE -2/8-10/1973: historic Miller A deep Gulf snow storm that crossed C FL to well off SE coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't hate that map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip That looks pretty canonical Nino. Big banner Snow Season for the central and Southern Rockies. Possibly the Resorts of the Central and Southern Apps as well. Going to depend on how much cold can get involved in the latter Area's obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted yesterday at 12:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 PM 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted yesterday at 03:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:58 PM On 9/9/2026 at 9:32 PM, frd said: "Nino's" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted yesterday at 05:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:28 PM 15 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! I've got a season pass on the Tug Hill. 300" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 06:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:46 PM On 9/9/2026 at 9:32 PM, frd said: :vomit: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: :vomit: That's got to be exclusively 72/73 as DCA & BWI ended the winter with only 1-2" while parts of VA & NC had a record year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago We might get the mega Nino with a negative PDO. What's the most recent winter that combo happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, LongRanger said: We might get the mega Nino with a negative PDO. What's the most recent winter that combo happened? I don't think it's going to be an appreciably negative PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it's going to be an appreciably negative PDO. Yeah it’s been rising quite a bit. Neutral-ish now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 9/11/2026 at 8:39 AM, Terpeast said: Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east. Wonder if Charlottesville could do rather well with that sort of setup. I’m far enough west where I rely on a slightly more inland track for coastals than NOVA. As a side note, I think for my climatology class I’m going to be doing a semester research project on storm tracks based on El Niño vs La Niña and the different patterns you need to get snow in each. Will be done by December so might help with the upcoming season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Wonder if Charlottesville could do rather well with that sort of setup. I’m far enough west where I rely on a slightly more inland track for coastals than NOVA. As a side note, I think for my climatology class I’m going to be doing a semester research project on storm tracks based on El Niño vs La Niña and the different patterns you need to get snow in each. Will be done by December so might help with the upcoming season. Imho, you're in a great location based on current seasonal modeling. But the jackpot, again based on modeling, would definitely be higher elevations and the other side of the BR Parkway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Wonder if Charlottesville could do rather well with that sort of setup. I’m far enough west where I rely on a slightly more inland track for coastals than NOVA. As a side note, I think for my climatology class I’m going to be doing a semester research project on storm tracks based on El Niño vs La Niña and the different patterns you need to get snow in each. Will be done by December so might help with the upcoming season. Look forward to seeing your project when it’s done! if you’re willing to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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