Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The last 5 days have been insane here. You literally can’t stop moving. It’s like living in the Amazon. 

Oh I'm sure it's in the mail.

Probably what happens is you'll get that population overtaxing and die off around your region over the next month. Things get better into July while we "wake" up down here.  Just delayed.  

There's always at least 2 or 3 week window where if seems like we left open all the windows, just a matter of when.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MEX is like 75-80 for everyone CON-south next week. I don’t understand the fretting over that. Yeah we lose the dews and rad spots will have 45-50 nights, but it doesn’t look dire? Beyond d7 I really don’t care what they spew out so INS can post his 300hr 3C 850 maps and I’ll print them and use them for TP. 

Agreed.

I'm stopping short of asking that myself, tho, just because there's too much subjectivity to what summer "should be" to really wanna even engage in that futile endeavor, but personally?   I think next week is 'seasonally bn'  - for older schoolers, they know that means that yeah ... below normal but within seasonal reasonability so nothing obnoxious.

The thing is, it's like there's multiple aspects concurrently true.  

The pattern verifies as a below normal +PNAP structure more than less, but we end up warmer than the pattern suggests we should - while still being lower that summers have been on sunny days going back 20 years worth of Gretta's ovulation cycles. 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The last 5 days have been insane here. You literally can’t stop moving. It’s like living in the Amazon. 

Today is the first day that I noticed any mosquitoes. I did start at 6:00 though to try to beat the heat so my comparisons to other days doesn't mean much.

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The last 5 days have been insane here. You literally can’t stop moving. It’s like living in the Amazon. 

I come home bleeding from black flies and then the next day it’s all bug bites itching.

It’s gotten real bad in these humid calm days.  No breeze to knock the f*ckers back.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Today is the first day that I noticed any mosquitoes. I did start at 6:00 though to try to beat the heat so my comparisons to other days doesn't mean much.

We're teeing off at 7:30 tomorrow morning.   Not a big fan of Saturday morning early anything frankly ... buuut, fairways under sun you could swear you can hear sizzling makes even 82 F a bad golfing experience.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We're teeing off at 7:30 tomorrow morning.   Not a big fan of Saturday morning early anything frankly ... buuut, fairways under sun you could swear you can hear sizzling makes even 82 F a bad golfing experience.

 

[Cyclone-68]

As was noted up thread maybe the slightly cooler temps will help generate some severe if not at least more garden variety storms?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now this is a summer morning despite the clouds. Too bad this is it for awhile. 

More boos about the weather next week than Trump at MSG earlier this week?

[weatherwiz]

Might just go to Brewster, NY today and hope to get lucky. Probably just go around 1 and wait there and then hopefully can make minor adjustments if needed but giving its a Friday and storm timing...traffic won't be fun

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

There are 4 topics of conversation:
- CoastalWx
- CoastalWx
- CoastalWx
- CoastalWx

 

Interesting...and for some, unsettling-

[TheClimateChanger]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah,... yeah, I guess.

I typically just use temperature.   DP around here - for me - is always iffy.   Seems odd maybe to think that with an actual ocean sitting there, but we are at a non-fixed confluence of a dry vs wet streams.  It seems we spend about equal time either in a continental arid Canadian delivery ( even over the top heat is sometimes coughing dry), or... we get a mash up of Dallas to Chicago industrial flatulence mixed with southern bio-mist.     Every once in a rare while we'll get a real pure DP air via the Bahama transport - some of the bluest sky on the planet actually occurs when the DP is 78 F that way.  Anyway, that split between massive DP sweats to then huge DP sweeps, probably on average ever 2 or 3 days doesn't fix my nostalgia either way. 

It also seems era bias too.   I swear we had more dewy summers back in the 1980s.   That's when I moved to Rockport Ma/Cape Ann's arty culture's bizarre marriage with lobster merchants pushing wakes across the harbor by their two stroke diesel engines leaving a trail of black smoke ... I guess the artist paint how the lobster men feed them. Weird cultural shock that year.  Sometime later in the 1990s we started getting hotter and drier summers, excluding any outliers like that 2000 oddity.

The last 25 years have been variable but undeniably warming across that total variability. But one peculiar behavior I've noticed: a tendency to split the warm heights and warm thickness ( non-hydrostatic height vs hydrostatic height).  I keep seeing in summer where the non hydrostatic heights might balloon to 585+ clear to Montreal, yet the 572 dm hydrostatic thickness along with higher DPs curves/dives S of here.   Not this week of course. ha

Air conditioning makes a big difference too. We didn't have it back then and it was tough but bearable. You couldn't do that today in most places.

[TheClimateChanger]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed.

I'm stopping short of asking that myself, tho, just because there's too much subjectivity to what summer "should be" to really wanna even engage in that futile endeavor, but personally?   I think next week is 'seasonally bn'  - for older schoolers, they know that means that yeah ... below normal but within seasonal reasonability so nothing obnoxious.

The thing is, it's like there's multiple aspects concurrently true.  

The pattern verifies as a below normal +PNAP structure more than less, but we end up warmer than the pattern suggests we should - while still being lower that summers have been on sunny days going back 20 years worth of Gretta's ovulation cycles. 

For a certain segment of weather troll community, 95F and 70F dews is "just summer" and actual "just summer" weather is hyped up as the next coming of the year without a summer.

[TheClimateChanger]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah,... yeah, I guess.

I typically just use temperature.   DP around here - for me - is always iffy.   Seems odd maybe to think that with an actual ocean sitting there, but we are at a non-fixed confluence of a dry vs wet streams.  It seems we spend about equal time either in a continental arid Canadian delivery ( even over the top heat is sometimes coughing dry), or... we get a mash up of Dallas to Chicago industrial flatulence mixed with southern bio-mist.     Every once in a rare while we'll get a real pure DP air via the Bahama transport - some of the bluest sky on the planet actually occurs when the DP is 78 F that way.  Anyway, that split between massive DP sweats to then huge DP sweeps, probably on average ever 2 or 3 days doesn't fix my nostalgia either way. 

It also seems era bias too.   I swear we had more dewy summers back in the 1980s.   That's when I moved to Rockport Ma/Cape Ann's arty culture's bizarre marriage with lobster merchants pushing wakes across the harbor by their two stroke diesel engines leaving a trail of black smoke ... I guess the artist paint how the lobster men feed them. Weird cultural shock that year.  Sometime later in the 1990s we started getting hotter and drier summers, excluding any outliers like that 2000 oddity.

The last 25 years have been variable but undeniably warming across that total variability. But one peculiar behavior I've noticed: a tendency to split the warm heights and warm thickness ( non-hydrostatic height vs hydrostatic height).  I keep seeing in summer where the non hydrostatic heights might balloon to 585+ clear to Montreal, yet the 572 dm hydrostatic thickness along with higher DPs curves/dives S of here.   Not this week of course. ha

This is what IEM has for mean hourly dewpoint in the summertime for BOS.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Air conditioning makes a big difference too. We didn't have it back then and it was tough but bearable. You couldn't do that today in most places.

DP's may be growing ( and they are in fact... no "may be" about it) in the longer term average/mean, but they seem to not coincide ( necessarily) when the kinetic temperature is very large - as well. 

That's probably the sticking point in perception.  Particularly true around here.   We don't seem to couple say... 76 dp, with 98 nearly as frequently as the same latitude out over N IA/IL for example.   

It's not like our sun is weaker.  There's some sort of geo-physical feedback here that gets in the way of that.  Like the baseline PNAP ( Perennial North American Pattern, which refers to the the rest state) affixes a non-linear component of forcing that is ( as "non-linearity" implies) not really very discerned on a daily weather chart but is always lurking, and does manifest in subtle ways.  Such as, ...our highest heat ends up coming over top, where it then has to come d-slope.  That's just one possible way in which our region hides the biggest DP days from coinciding from the bigger kinetic delivery days.  Another possibility ... because we are the continental anus of just about every circulation mode there is with the exception of the EC paralleling "Bahama Blue" pattern ( rarer), that means we have the entire 2,500 miles of accumulated organic and inorganic ( man-made) particulate aspects that can inhibit a purer solar radiation transfer.  

All these aspect make any linear interpretation of climate kind of fragile when considering things at a deeper level. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Indeed... old Sol is doing a decent job at eroding the grunge.   Gone partly sunny here and the higher res vis imagery suggests we'll see more sun going forward.  Temps 'll likely respond

[weatherwiz]

maybe even Ridgefiled, CT might not be a bad go to area today

[FXWX]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe even Ridgefiled, CT might not be a bad go to area today

Monitoring and handling several outdoor high school graduation ceremonies across western CT today; and am wary of my districts near the NY/CT border region...  Always a tough call since folks want to know hours in advance whether or not a cell is going to go directly over the event area!  Lol.  Yesterday we had to send and keep folks in their cards for an extended period until cells cleared the area and lightning was at least 10 miles away... Nerve-wracking as hell...  I will monitor your page for any local obs of interest out in that area today...  I thought the RRFS did the best job yesterday and is the most bullish again today... not my favorite model, but it appeared to have the best handle on things late yesterday.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Might just go to Brewster, NY today and hope to get lucky. Probably just go around 1 and wait there and then hopefully can make minor adjustments if needed but giving its a Friday and storm timing...traffic won't be fun

Good luck, hopefully you will see some activity, the traffic on I 84 could be a tough go especially around the Fishkill, ny  area and the Newburgh Beacon bridge. The area around Brewster, Poughkeepsie, Fishkill, has had some good  past activity with storms.

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Monitoring and handling several outdoor high school graduation ceremonies across western CT today; and am wary of my districts near the NY/CT border region...  Always a tough call since folks want to know hours in advance whether or not a cell is going to go directly over the event area!  Lol.  Yesterday we had to send and keep folks in their cards for an extended period until cells cleared the area and lightning was at least 10 miles away... Nerve-wracking as hell...  I will monitor your page for any local obs of interest out in that area today...  I thought the RRFS did the best job yesterday and is the most bullish again today... not my favorite model, but it appeared to have the best handle on things late yesterday.

Good luck with the forecast. Most of the Meso models are showing activity around 18z.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Monitoring and handling several outdoor high school graduation ceremonies across western CT today; and am wary of my districts near the NY/CT border region...  Always a tough call since folks want to know hours in advance whether or not a cell is going to go directly over the event area!  Lol.  Yesterday we had to send and keep folks in their cards for an extended period until cells cleared the area and lightning was at least 10 miles away... Nerve-wracking as hell...  I will monitor your page for any local obs of interest out in that area today...  I thought the RRFS did the best job yesterday and is the most bullish again today... not my favorite model, but it appeared to have the best handle on things late yesterday.

The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well. 

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well. 

Yes to all... 

 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well. 

 

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Good luck with the forecast. Most of the Meso models are showing activity around 18z.

It looks like an attempt at some early activity during the 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm period, probably not strong or widespread, followed by a more significant early / mid evening cluster...  Lots of folks looking for a perfect forecast from an imperfect science related to thunderstorm initiation & intensity.