May 2026

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday's also looking wetter unfortunately at least on the euro

I'm taking the under based on recent events.   Looks like another cold front like today

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather will conclude the week. Overall, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s.  Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -2.89 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.007 today. 

 

[Stormlover74]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I got only .06" from that round of light rain. Not enough to give the vegetable garden a decent watering. I see the models are showing another round of rain during the overnight hours, so hopefully we'll get more then. 

Looks like a downpour may clip us

[Poker2015]

6 hours ago, doncat said:

This dry period to me is very interesting with its sudden onset and persistence, going on 21 months now... Station showing a 25" deficit during that period.

25" deficit in 21 months? That seems like alot. 

[doncat]

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

25" deficit in 21 months? That seems like alot. 

Yeah it is... My normal precip is around 48.50" for the calendar year. In 2025 I had around 35" so there's 13 of that 25" deficit in twelve months.

[doncat]

Lol with the 0.04" today.

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a downpour may clip us

Yeah I had a very brief heavy downpour that dropped .05". Taking a look at radar now before I go to bed, I see a decent batch of rain is approaching. So maybe we can get a quarter to third of an inch out of this event afterall. 

[Santa Claus]

hail

[psv88]

0.32” from the event. Not bad 

[bluewave]

Looks like a gradual warming later in May following this coming cooler period.

One thing to watch will be that we have a record +PMM now which is closer to the summer of 2015 El Niño than 2023 which didn’t have the strong +PMM.

So it’s possible we get a warmer summer than 2023. But we would want to see how the transition from late May into early June verifies in order to know for sure. 
 

Stronger +PMM in summer of 2015

Weaker PMM in 2023

EPS forecast next 15 days 

 

 

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a gradual warming later in May following this coming cooler period.

One thing to watch will be that we have a record +PMM now which is closer to the summer of 2015 El Niño than 2023 which didn’t have the strong +PMM.

So it’s possible we get a warmer summer than 2023. But we would want to see how the transition from late May into early June verifies in order to know for sure. 
 

Stronger +PMM in summer of 2015

Weaker PMM in 2023

EPS forecast next 15 days 

 

 

 

 

 

The thing is, the warmer pre-strong/super el nino summers in the Eastern US (1991 and 2015) were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el nino winters. We did not have that this year, like in 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. All of those years had cooler summers.

[SACRUS]

53 / 45 clouds splitting the area  angled SW to NE - should clear out and make way for a nice albeit cooler next two days. 0.40 in the bucket.  Clouds / showers Saturday another 0.25 - 0.50 rain and into Mothers Day and then on / off rain in between days next week.  Overall cooler than normal through mid month before a moderation to a more persistent warmer pattern between the 17 - and beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (2000)
NYC: 93 (2000)
LGA: 93 (2000)
JFK: 87 (2000)


Lows:

EWR: 38 (1996)
N YC: 37 (1891)
LGA: 40 (1970)
JFK: 38 (1970)

 

Historical:

 

1840 - A powerful tornado wrecked many boats at the Natchez Landing in Mississippi, then plowed through the city on the bluff. The tornado killed 317 persons, and caused a million dollars damage. The force of the storm caused houses to burst open. The tornado was the most deadly and destructive in early American history. (David Ludlum)

1857: The Washington Evening Star began publishing newspaper weather reports from the observations made by Joseph Henry's network of volunteer weather observers. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1927: Two massive F5 tornadoes combined for a 95 mile path of destruction through Comanche, Barber, Kingman, Reno, and McPherson Counties in Kansas. The death toll was 10 and 300 were injured. Damage was set at $1.3 million dollars. The tornado’s path width reached two miles at one point. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1930: Record Maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 95 °F.

1964 - The temperature at White Mountain 2, located in California, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to set a record for May for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

 

1970:  Record Minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 38 °F.

1987 - Thirty-one cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 93 degrees at Portland OR and San Jose CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. The high of 92 degrees at Quillayute WA was a record for the month of May. The temperature at Sacramento CA hit 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful storm in the north central U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the Bighorn Mountains of Wyoming and the mountains of south central Montana. Up to five inches of rain drenched central Montana in less than 24 hours, and flash flooding in Wyoming caused a million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, and 24 hour snowfall totals of 7.2 inches at Buffalo NY and 10.7 inches at Rochester NY were records for the month of May. While northerly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the eastern U.S., temperatures warmed rapidly in the Great Plains Region, reaching the 90s in Kansas. The temperature at Manhattan KS soared from a low of 30 degrees to a high of 88 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Gale force winds lashed the northern and central Pacific coast. A wind gust of 52 mph at Eureka CA established a record for the month of May. Strong winds over northeastern Colorado, associated with a fast moving Pacific cold front, gusted to 63 mph at Peetz. Snow developed over the northwest mountains of Wyoming late in the day, and Yellowstone National Park was whitened with 6 to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: A freak snowstorm in the North Carolina Mountains dumped 40 inches at Mt. Pisgah and 18 inches at Mt. Mitchell.

1995: Severe thunderstorms struck Aurora, CO. Hailed piled 4 to 5 inches deep in the vicinity of Quincy Reservoir in south Aurora. Lightning struck an Aurora Police Communications Tower causing significant malfunction to the primary system. Minor damage was sustained when lightning struck an apartment building. Hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter accumulated 6 inches deep in just 15 minutes. Many streets were closed for an hour or more due to flooding caused by heavy rain and melting hail. Some trees were stripped of their leaves. An F3 tornado cut a 34 mile path across Love and Carter Counties in south central Oklahoma, while on the ground for over an hour killing three people and doing over $100 million dollars in damages; $75 million in Ardmore alone.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[MANDA]

Received .40" rainfall last 24 hours.  Better than I was expecting.  I'll take it.

Click map to enlarge.

[Brian5671]

Got more rain from the overnight batch here than the daytime batch

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got more rain from the overnight batch here than the daytime batch

Yeah the overnight batch really overperformed. I ended up with 0.45" for the event. Not bad. Glad the garden got a good watering. 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Got more rain from the overnight batch here than the daytime batch

Same. That salvaged it being a half decent event. The initial rain barely wet the ground. 

[FPizz]

additional .25 last night, so .35" total

[mgerb]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the overnight batch really overperformed. I ended up with 0.45" for the event. Not bad. Glad the garden got a good watering. 

0.48" for the day here. A nice surprise, as was expecting a few tenths at best. 

[steve392]

Had some heavy rains form overnight as a line came through.   Walking out to the chilly air felt great! 

[winterwarlock]

Looks like crappy week next week and the we get our flip to summer

[winterwarlock]

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out

 

Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s.  Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. 

In the long-range, there has been some shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -5.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.040 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[IrishRob17]

48 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out

 

Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

I noticed my ornamental grasses which had started growing in the heat turned brown after the freeze, they are slowly coming back now. They don’t look as nice as they typically do at this point. The second push of smaller leaves on trees is what we had here a couple of years ago thanks to the spongy moth infestation. 

[NEG NAO]

IMO odds favor the colder/snowier 2026 -2027 Winter as other factors that helped create last winters below normal temps will repeat next winter.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO odds favor the colder/snowier 2026 -2027 Winter as other factors that helped create last winters below normal temps will repeat next winter.

The STJ should be active. Thats step 1. Step 2 would be blocking. Step 3 would be a negative EPO/ AO.

[jm1220]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should be active. Thats step 1. Step 2 would be blocking. Step 3 would be a negative EPO/ AO.

We need one or two loaded up El Niño southern jet setups to make it this far north with cold air. We don’t want too much blocking to squash everything south. 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing is, the warmer pre-strong/super el nino summers in the Eastern US (1991 and 2015) were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el nino winters. We did not have that this year, like in 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. All of those years had cooler summers.

We will have to wait and see since we aren’t getting the extreme ridge over Canada like we had from May into June 2023 leading to the record air pollution in NYC from the Canadian wildfires.

Notice how 2015 started off warmer in June than 2023 which set the pace for the whole summer.

A much warmer winter has been a given with super El Niños like 1983, 1998, 2016, and 2024. But we did find a way to get a generally warmer summer in 2015 with over 30 days reaching 90°.

Even the 2023 summer which was closer to average still had 29 days due to the late warm up into September. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	39	0
2024	33	0
2023	29	0
2022	49	0
2021	41	0
2020	31	0
2019	27	0
2018	36	0
2017	22	0
2016	40	0
2015	35	0

[gravitylover]

12 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Anyone else notice that the freeze a couple weeks back after 90 degree temps ended up damaging and killing some oak and japanese maple leaves that were leafing out

 

Brown and shriveled. Doesnt happen often. Just a cae of bad tining Google says they will releaf but with smaller leaves

There are a few types of plants that are looking weak due to disrupted development from that freeze. Some don't really show it but, because they started flowering and the flowers froze they won't be fruiting and seed production will be severely reduced.