May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no ... they "make it sound" as though everyone in here must be needling neurotics

Ha I don’t think so, it’s just a different climate.

We recover like 8-10F per hour rapidly… so comparing here vs OXC/Waterbury, CT

6am… 29F vs 48F

By 9:15am… 54F vs 54F

Very quickly normalizing after sun-up.

[tamarack]

31 this morning, light frost and no damage to the fruit tree blossoms.  Median here for spring's latest frost is 5/23 - might hit that tomorrow morning (low chance).

Deep blue this morning, leaf development has leaped from <25% to >75% since last Friday - instant spring.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah after next Wednesday things could get back to mehhh for the weekend...go figure 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

3/4 days are nice.  65-75

Monday will surprise to the upside.

 

The one day with rain (Sunday) will treat the gardens so I can avoid watering.

 

winning.

Could.

Depends on what guidance one chooses.    

The Euro's the best; the GFS is worst. 

I just compared their respective ceiling RH levels.

The Euro's ~ 6 hrs faster in the wholesale deep layer.  Has a sharp back edge clearing in the 300 and 500 mb levels by 12z...with <= 50% in the 700mb by 18z going clear by 21 z.   As is such...it's 2-m Ts are 68 to 72, but the 900 mb T argue that it's really warmer than that in the "real" 2-m ...

The GFS, being slower with back edge not only retards any recovery but actually is still raining through 15z.   It does finally clear in time to salvage the afternoon but the damage is done, and since this model is deliberately coded to seek out and destroy warm solutions ... it's thus succeeded damping heating potential just enough to get to it's goal of ruining the day.  heh

Seriously tho the 12z this morning will be intereseting to see if one collapses toward the other.  After all, 72 hours away. 

 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I don’t think so, it’s just a different climate.

We recover like 8-10F per hour rapidly… so comparing here vs OXC/Waterbury, CT

6am… 29F vs 48F

By 9:15am… 54F vs 54F

Very quickly normalizing after sun-up.

No, I get it, the recovery is fast now.  Was just meaning I don’t want anymore frost/near frost mornings now. Not that what I want makes any difference in the grand scheme of things.  But was just saying. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah after next Wednesday things could get back to mehhh for the weekend...go figure 

Seems like even going back to last december all the storms/poor weather were on weekends.   

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No, I get it, the recovery is fast now.  Was just meaning I don’t want anymore frost/near frost mornings now. Not that what I want makes any difference in the grand scheme of things.  But was just saying. 

Yeah I hear ya, and we post about it because it’s the min temp… but it’s also such a small part of the day its impact is very minimal except for sleeping and maybe to the vegetation.

[OrangeCTWX]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah after next Wednesday things could get back to mehhh for the weekend...go figure 

I’m going out to block island next Tuesday-Saturday. Weather was looking great until I looked this morning. Wtf 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah after next Wednesday things could get back to mehhh for the weekend...go figure 

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh'

I'd say there's a decent chance that's a piece of shit down right frustration that pushes one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo

These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable.  

As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was.  Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr...  despite those 3 or 4 months having averaged ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in Earth's history ( eh hm),  the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else.   This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not.  It's like always coming in last?    I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. 

It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh'

I'd piece of shit down right frustrating and pushing one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo

These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable.  

As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was.  Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr...  despite those 3 or 4 months average ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in history ( eh hm),  the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else.   This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not.  It's like always coming in last?    I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. 

It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.

I agree, but trying to be a bit optimistic  

But anytime you see an omega-block like look...always prepare for crap 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

I’m going out to block island next Tuesday-Saturday. Weather was looking great until I looked this morning. Wtf 

Everyday is sunny and 75-82 next week. Probably 84-85 Tuesday/ Wednesday 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 to 60...

Funny, it was 38 here this am when I crept down the stair.  The house chillier down here, apparently having finally forgotten the warmth the other day. Typically it takes 30 or so hourse for the 'thermal edifice memory'  

I debated flipping the compressor to heat mode. It was just 59. I don't think it's improved much.  Something about May-22nd pisses me off enough to stubbornly prevent myself. 

SO... ah, 61 ..I may as well just open the windows now and let the warm air in. 

Winning

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I hear ya, and we post about it because it’s the min temp… but it’s also such a small part of the day its impact is very minimal except for sleeping and maybe to the vegetation.

Agree 100%.  
 

The picture you posted yesterday was just beautiful!  I zoomed in and thought I was able to see just a little snow left up on some of the trails on the mountain in the background. 

[OrangeCTWX]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyday is sunny and 75-82 next week. Probably 84-85 Tuesday/ Wednesday 

Hope so . This doesn’t exactly thrill me though lol