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May 2026 Obs/Discussion

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No idea, I only do hurricanes in the summer....and incremental winter outlooks prep.

Well see you next November for winter coverage because I’ve already canceled Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 :lol: 

5 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

8 years ago.  Wild day for SW CT.  Thankfully I outran it and missed driving through it coming home.  

FB_IMG_1778845447458.jpg

Don’t think I moved back yet but I def don’t remember this day. 

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MJO812
MJO812

Spring and Summer are so boring Bring on Autumn and Winter

ineedsnow
ineedsnow

Patchy frost on the grass and car windows frozen over.. we take! 

dendrite
dendrite

Holy shit

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OrangeCTWX

OrangeCTWX

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

8 years ago.  Wild day for SW CT.  Thankfully I outran it and missed driving through it coming home.  

FB_IMG_1778845447458.jpg

Yep a wild day. My mother and brother were at a wedding near Carmel NY. I told them to get the hell out as soon as it was done. They thankfully just got out ahead of it. A lot of damage back there.
 

 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

8 years ago.  Wild day for SW CT.  Thankfully I outran it and missed driving through it coming home.  

FB_IMG_1778845447458.jpg

That was a wild day. Best structure I’ve seen in southern NE. My uncle got hit by the tornado on his way home from Waterbury. He had the rather extraordinary distinction of being hit directly by three tornadoes while living in SCT. House got smoked by the July ‘89 F4, then 2018 and 2020 (or was it ‘21?)

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That was a wild day. Best structure I’ve seen in southern NE. My uncle got hit by the tornado on his way home from Waterbury. He had the rather extraordinary distinction of being hit directly by three tornadoes while living in SCT. House got smoked by the July ‘89 F4, then 2018 and 2020 (or was it ‘21?)

Wow!  Escaped em all here in Southington. Twisters don’t like my town. And That’s fine by me.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, dendrite said:

True warm season finally arrives tomorrow. It was a long 7 months.

Made it to 59° today thanks to the bit of sun this afternoon. 

Quite possibly the best symbolic metric for that is the fact that the nights won’t be nearly as cold. This will cause a healthy status of green up to go full on jungle by the end of the week.
 

Frankly, I’m amazed green ups as far as it is the way it’s been dipping into 37 every night for the past 7000 years

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Such an exciting time of year. On the precipice of moving into and locking in deep summer . We begin tomorrow . It is over !

May start drinking Pepsi to see if I can taste the sweat in it

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
On 5/13/2026 at 8:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

My point is when you have various people from various parts of the industry, as well as what I have been noticing too… It tells you that something isn’t ready for primetime. They got three months to figure this out.

One other thing, and this is biggie.  The NAM has always been useless when it comes to TCs.  It sucks w/ track and intensity, doing all sorts of odd things.  It never was designed to handle TCs.

The HRRR seems to handle TCs well, and no reason to think the RRFS will not be the same.  I'll check further on this.

Everyone seems focus on the negative for the "new stuff," but leaves out the shortcomings of the present, like the NAM guidance, that has sig drawbacks.

One thing I will miss, the NAM MOS handles low-level cold air much better than the GFS MOS.  Which brings me to another point, is there MOS-type output for other models, CAM and global?  If so, what is a good site to view it?  W/ NAM MOS going away, more and more will likely just look at 2 m temps (some do already), and run w/ them -- not good in the longer ranges!

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
On 5/14/2026 at 10:17 AM, OceanStWx said:

Permanent change. I haven't seen the updated best coverage of the lowest scan maps yet, but I think we're now looking at BOX being the better radar from near PSM to Sunapee. The biggest change is we gain like 2000 feet of viewing near EEN, and ENX is basically no longer necessary to look at. 

So WSR-88Ds can now go as low as 0.3 deg for BREF1?

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
On 5/14/2026 at 3:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we stein here. Rain will be fairly brief. The spring of stein. :stein:

Given the sfc low tracked/developed right over SNE, are you surprised?  Scott needs to look up his 700 low track rule for dry slots!  :P

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The word drought and New England should never be used in the same sentence. 

How about "hot?"  Somehow temps in the low 80s now have become "hot" on local TV forecasts.  It all falls in pushing the "hot" narrative overall. 

85-90 or upper 80s historically has been hot for New England in forecasts.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, tamarack said:

You're too young to have experienced the 1960s.  :D

Yes, the last real multi-year drought in New England was in the 1960s, and yet the media has turned the word "drought" into a fear-mongering term, acting like its very existence is somehow atypical.

Every time we get into a extended period (up to 6 months) dry here, it always seems to correct itself after this time.  But that's not good for the fear-mongers, they just invented "weather whiplash" to still be negative/gloom and doom.  What, do they expect gentle April showers all the time and no drought conditions ever?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yes it was!   And I don't have any faith in seasonal outlooks so you've manage to penetrate my cynical lead on this one.  Ha... 

I nailed the first 1/2 of winter; didn't do so good in the 2nd.    Having said that, I also did not formalize any outlook so ... heh. I guess it doesn't count.   Maybe if I had put the time in I might have thought differently about the back half but I bet I would have had trouble getting out of my own way.   See, for NINA-decaying springs - according to my own linear eval of correlations of other ENSO of past vs the cosmic dildo - there's an interesting 2ndary offset mode for bombastically warm AMJ.  As 2ndary implies, it's not the leading mode. But there's a cluster. So they don't always happen, but the ones that did went impressively warm.  

I felt 'hot' on the dice roll.  I took a rather quick and glib gamble that CC would team up and weight the die - this could be one of those years to see an early spring. And for those of us that covet bombastically decisive endings and warm flips ...yay.   Didn't really pan out.

But here's the funny thing... as an after thought, CC is fucking up the analysis, anyway.   See, we keep cooking up positive anomalies in the relative comparisons of just about everything. That makes is hard to parse out what is happening because of what.  Example, March and April we regionally were above normal relative to climate... during a colder pattern construct.  Oops.  We did however bottom of the barrel below the results relative to the whole U.S., so pattern still expressed.   It's like we have parallel processes going on. 

I've really made a concerted effort to factor CC in after the 2023 El Nino handed me my ass.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

One other thing, and this is biggie.  The NAM has always been useless when it comes to TCs.  It sucks w/ track and intensity, doing all sorts of odd things.  It never was designed to handle TCs.

The HRRR seems to handle TCs well, and no reason to think the RRFS will not be the same.  I'll check further on this.

Everyone seems focus on the negative for the "new stuff," but leaves out the shortcomings of the present, like the NAM guidance, that has sig drawbacks.

One thing I will miss, the NAM MOS handles low-level cold air much better than the GFS MOS.  Which brings me to another point, is there MOS-type output for other models, CAM and global?  If so, what is a good site to view it?  W/ NAM MOS going away, more and more will likely just look at 2 m temps (some do already), and run w/ them -- not good in the longer ranges!

I’m really interested to see if the AI guidance on balance continues its usefulness (originally I wanted to say dominance but that’s probably a bit too much) in TC genesis and forecasting this season.

It’ll likely be a quiet season, and that’ll be a good test of how it sniffs out favorable windows. Last season some of the AI was exceptional, especially GDM.

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