3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’ll start putting trust in what models are showing 12z Saturday. 
 

First call (throwing a dart blindfolded)

7.3” at MSP

[RCNYILWX]

It's decidedly a myth that the models are a shit show. The truth is the opposite. If you're wanting truly stable solutions at this lead time for a rapid deepening cyclone, we don't live in that world yet.



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[Geoboy645]

Arguably this storm has actually had a high amount of agreement of models for this far out. We know that somewhere in WI is going to get hit with a very significant amount of snow and have a rough idea of what that corridor is most likely going to be. That's pretty good for 3-4 days out all things considered.

[Chicago Storm]

It's decidedly a myth that the models are a shit show. The truth is the opposite. If you're wanting truly stable solutions at this lead time for a rapid deepening cyclone, we don't live in that world yet.



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(and likely never will)

[cmillzz]

AI Euro ticked north

[McHenrySnow]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

that’s literally having zero impact on modeling.

that's literally not true when it's directly affecting the amount of information being digested by the models 

cancelling balloon launches directly affects modeling, i know you aren't stupid 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is the most progressive of the models.  It doesn't have much of anything for Iowa, rain or snow.

[McHenrySnow]

[Imneversatisfied]

Can someone please post the FRAM forecasts for Michigan?

[Malacka11]

If it's less than 12" here personally I'd rather just let WI get their 30"

[ILSNOW]

[josh_4184]

Snow is certinlty impressive for who cashes in, but the ice is the bigger story, if it remotely verifies somewhere is Michigan will be beyond catastrophic. Northern Michigan already has PTSD from last years storm almost exactly a YTD. My area is right on the edge dont think Northern Michigan can take another once in a century ice storm for the infrastrcuture. Electric bills have gone though the roof since last year already not to mention woods have been decimated and many areas still havent fully recovered regarding property damage. 

[Imneversatisfied]

8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Thanks. OMG! Im in Alpena Michigan with 1.02" ! We just got 0.40" of ice yesterday that hasn't melted off trees.Tomorrow 6" then the big one. We suffered greatly during last March's ice storm like Josh.

[Geoboy645]

40 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Snow is certinlty impressive for who cashes in, but the ice is the bigger story, if it remotely verifies somewhere is Michigan will be beyond catastrophic. Northern Michigan already has PTSD from last years storm almost exactly a YTD. My area is right on the edge dont think Northern Michigan can take another once in a century ice storm for the infrastrcuture. Electric bills have gone though the roof since last year already not to mention woods have been decimated and many areas still havent fully recovered regarding property damage. 

If that most recent run of the Euro is to be believed, some of those areas that get over half an inch in WI and MI get 6-12 or more inches of heavy wet snow on top of it with the wind. If that happens, that would be catastrophic, including in some areas that were affected by last year and yesterday. I would rather have the straight 20 inches of snow here than deal with ice and then snow like that.

[TheNiño]

MKE hoisted a watch for SE Wisconsin. I thought they’d wait it out a bit longer but due to the potential for heavy impacts it’s understandable. The MKE area will probably vary pretty widely county by county. I do not envy the forecasters on this one. Going to be an interesting few days here in Kenosha trying to figure this one out.

[A-L-E-K]

this is your moment^

[Geoboy645]

On one hand, it feels kind of early for Winter Storm Watches. On the other hand, we are only two days out from the storm with one of the strongest synoptic wind events in years here tomorrow during the day. This one is going to catch some people by surprise, especially after Monday's warm temps so I'm not surprised that they went with them as soon as they could. 

[sbnwx85]

Palm trees gonna get blown away. Pity.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

High wind warning followed by a winter storm watch here. 
 

[andyhb]

The totals being printed out of N WI and the UP/northern LP of MI from the 12z suite are just absurd.

[Baum]

8” in Naperville or bust

[Jackstraw]

I've got to do a test run with a new dog sitter for my trip late next week. Hell I may just head N into the middle of this cement for a day or 2 for fun. Nothing better than sitting at a bar and hearing people bitch about shoveling concrete lmao

[DocATL]

8” in Naperville or bust

.

[A-L-E-K]

15 minutes ago, Baum said:

8” in Naperville or bust

 

[MJO812]

Congrats guys

Take alot of pictures and videos. Love seeing places with alot of snow .

[Chicago Storm]

for those keeping score at home, here are all of the moving pieces involved with this one.

[ILSNOW]

nice writeup from Milwaukee NWS

Here are a few things to keep an eye on over the next couple days.
The first thing to watch are the surface and 850 mb low tracks.
Given the expected transition from rain to mixed precip to very
heavy snow over a fairly short distance with this deepening low,
any wobble north/south with the low tracks would have a
significant impact on local precip types/amounts. As mentioned
already, while the surface low track has remained fairly steady,
the 850 mb low has been trending northward. Another trend to watch
is that models have been slower with the exit of this system,
lingering into at least Monday morning with the moderate to heavy
snow and blowing snow. This would bring the higher impacts into
the Monday morning commute. Lastly, models are often on the high
side with storm total liquid equivalent 2-4 days out. Given the
current anomalously high storm totals for a winter storm, it will
be worth watching if models start coming down with totals in the
next 24-48 hours. Give the strength of this system though, liquid
equivalent totals of 1-2 inches seem reasonable, maybe not upwards
of 3" per 12Z deterministic models.

 

[Baum]

33 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

He’s a lock for a great spring day on Monday. 

[frostfern]

I’ll pass on this ice storm bullshit.

[DocATL]

GFS is correcting…

Northwest trend the last three runs.