3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’ll start putting trust in what models are showing 12z Saturday. 
 

First call (throwing a dart blindfolded)

7.3” at MSP

[RCNYILWX]

It's decidedly a myth that the models are a shit show. The truth is the opposite. If you're wanting truly stable solutions at this lead time for a rapid deepening cyclone, we don't live in that world yet.



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[Geoboy645]

Arguably this storm has actually had a high amount of agreement of models for this far out. We know that somewhere in WI is going to get hit with a very significant amount of snow and have a rough idea of what that corridor is most likely going to be. That's pretty good for 3-4 days out all things considered.

[Chicago Storm]

It's decidedly a myth that the models are a shit show. The truth is the opposite. If you're wanting truly stable solutions at this lead time for a rapid deepening cyclone, we don't live in that world yet.



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(and likely never will)

[cmillzz]

AI Euro ticked north

[McHenrySnow]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

that’s literally having zero impact on modeling.

that's literally not true when it's directly affecting the amount of information being digested by the models 

cancelling balloon launches directly affects modeling, i know you aren't stupid 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is the most progressive of the models.  It doesn't have much of anything for Iowa, rain or snow.

[McHenrySnow]

[Imneversatisfied]

Can someone please post the FRAM forecasts for Michigan?

[Malacka11]

If it's less than 12" here personally I'd rather just let WI get their 30"

[ILSNOW]

[josh_4184]

Snow is certinlty impressive for who cashes in, but the ice is the bigger story, if it remotely verifies somewhere is Michigan will be beyond catastrophic. Northern Michigan already has PTSD from last years storm almost exactly a YTD. My area is right on the edge dont think Northern Michigan can take another once in a century ice storm for the infrastrcuture. Electric bills have gone though the roof since last year already not to mention woods have been decimated and many areas still havent fully recovered regarding property damage. 

[Imneversatisfied]

8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Thanks. OMG! Im in Alpena Michigan with 1.02" ! We just got 0.40" of ice yesterday that hasn't melted off trees.Tomorrow 6" then the big one. We suffered greatly during last March's ice storm like Josh.

[Geoboy645]

40 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Snow is certinlty impressive for who cashes in, but the ice is the bigger story, if it remotely verifies somewhere is Michigan will be beyond catastrophic. Northern Michigan already has PTSD from last years storm almost exactly a YTD. My area is right on the edge dont think Northern Michigan can take another once in a century ice storm for the infrastrcuture. Electric bills have gone though the roof since last year already not to mention woods have been decimated and many areas still havent fully recovered regarding property damage. 

If that most recent run of the Euro is to be believed, some of those areas that get over half an inch in WI and MI get 6-12 or more inches of heavy wet snow on top of it with the wind. If that happens, that would be catastrophic, including in some areas that were affected by last year and yesterday. I would rather have the straight 20 inches of snow here than deal with ice and then snow like that.

[TheNiño]

MKE hoisted a watch for SE Wisconsin. I thought they’d wait it out a bit longer but due to the potential for heavy impacts it’s understandable. The MKE area will probably vary pretty widely county by county. I do not envy the forecasters on this one. Going to be an interesting few days here in Kenosha trying to figure this one out.

[A-L-E-K]

this is your moment^

[Geoboy645]

On one hand, it feels kind of early for Winter Storm Watches. On the other hand, we are only two days out from the storm with one of the strongest synoptic wind events in years here tomorrow during the day. This one is going to catch some people by surprise, especially after Monday's warm temps so I'm not surprised that they went with them as soon as they could. 

[sbnwx85]

Palm trees gonna get blown away. Pity.