Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period. EPS does have an eastern trough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period. EPS does does have an eastern trough. Does this mean it Does Not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday? I'm sure it will cloudy and 44 lol. March is the pits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 39 minutes ago, Fozz said: How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March. The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later. @Stormchaserchuck1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Clearly a window in the period the OP is advertising. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 White St Paddy’s day. Sure I’m in. You can add white to any holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Mid March slop storm for DC and points north on the Euro AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Concerning any potential last snow event around mid-month/St. Pat's Day... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year During the past 50 years those values have resulted in heavy snowfall winters............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 hours ago, bncho said: Mid March slop storm for DC and points north on the Euro AI RI and SE MA jacks again. Atmospheric memory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 28 minutes ago, stormy said: During the past 50 years those values have resulted in heavy snowfall winters............................ 23-24, 15-16, 97-98, 91-92, 82-83, 72-73, 65-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 WB 18Z GFS does have fantasy storm during mid March period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 18z Euro AI delivers the Happy hour goods just in time for St. Patty’s Day! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Eh, not exactly the ideal look at h5 for a MA snowstorm. Surface isn't bad but if that HP ends up a bit further east it wouldn't end well. It's March though, and some weird shit can happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 A successful outcome for that window continues to look dependent on a -WPO, +PNA, and a southward displaced TPV. A pretty favorable combo, but the AO/NAO is not good, so timing would be critical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Grade this winter please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 WB 0Z EURO AI about 10 days out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 0z Euro has the St.Patty’s Day chance again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Euro has the St.Patty’s Day chance again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: All 3 ensemble snowfall forecasts are pretty decent for any time of the year, and especially for mid March. The only issue for consideration is that the ensembles are 10:1 and Kuchera on the operationals is less than 10:1 in varying degrees depending on surface temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 48 minutes ago, mitchnick said: All 3 ensemble snowfall forecasts are pretty decent for any time of the year, and especially for mid March. The only issue for consideration is that the ensembles are 10:1 and Kuchera on the operationals is less than 10:1 in varying degrees depending on surface temps. The 5 day period from the 15th to the 20th is pretty good for mid March standards for the region on the EPS, GEFS & AI EPS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 It’s happening. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 just miss to the north, but mitch and TSSN get hit pretty solidly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, bncho said: just miss to the north, but mitch and TSSN get hit pretty solidly That run clocks me pretty good back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: It’s happening. Those snow maps 10+ days out.. Gotta be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Those snow maps 10+ days out.. Gotta be. It’s gonna snow and you just gotta get your mind right son. It’s happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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