March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period.  EPS does have an eastern trough.

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period.  EPS does does have an eastern trough.

Does this mean it Does Not?

[snowfan]

So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday?

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday?

I'm sure it will cloudy and 44 lol. March is the pits.

[Fozz]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later.
 

@Stormchaserchuck1

[NorthArlington101]

Clearly a window in the period the OP is advertising. 

[BristowWx]

White St Paddy’s day.  Sure I’m in.  You can add white to any holiday.  

[bncho]

Mid March slop storm for DC and points north on the Euro AI

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Concerning any potential last snow event around mid-month/St. Pat's Day...

[stormy]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

During the past 50 years those values have resulted in heavy snowfall winters............................

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

Mid March slop storm for DC and points north on the Euro AI

RI and SE MA jacks again. Atmospheric memory

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, stormy said:

During the past 50 years those values have resulted in heavy snowfall winters............................

23-24, 15-16, 97-98, 91-92, 82-83, 72-73, 65-66

[cmillzz]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS does have fantasy storm during mid March period.  

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Euro AI delivers the Happy hour goods just in time for St. Patty’s Day!

[CAPE]

Eh, not exactly the ideal look at h5 for a MA snowstorm. Surface isn't bad but if that HP ends up a bit further east it wouldn't end well. It's March though, and some weird shit can happen.

 

[CAPE]

A successful outcome for that window continues to look dependent on a -WPO, +PNA, and a southward displaced TPV. A pretty favorable combo, but the AO/NAO is not good, so timing would be critical.

[WeatherGeek2025]

                               Grade this winter please

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI about 10 days out...

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro has the St.Patty’s Day chance again.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Euro has the St.Patty’s Day chance again.

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

All 3 ensemble snowfall forecasts are pretty decent for any time of the year, and especially for mid March. The only issue for consideration is that the ensembles are 10:1 and Kuchera on the operationals is less than 10:1 in varying degrees depending on surface temps.

[Blizzard of 93]

48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All 3 ensemble snowfall forecasts are pretty decent for any time of the year, and especially for mid March. The only issue for consideration is that the ensembles are 10:1 and Kuchera on the operationals is less than 10:1 in varying degrees depending on surface temps.

The 5 day period from the 15th to the 20th is pretty good for mid March standards for the region on the EPS, GEFS & AI EPS.

[stormtracker]

It’s happening.