March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period.  EPS does have an eastern trough.

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period.  EPS does does have an eastern trough.

Does this mean it Does Not?

[snowfan]

So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday?

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So we are all feeling sick next Tuesday and Wednesday?

I'm sure it will cloudy and 44 lol. March is the pits.

[Fozz]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro seasonal going crazy for Strong El Nino later this year

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How reliable is this forecast this far out? Looks like it wants a super Nino but this is only early March.

The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later.
 

@Stormchaserchuck1