2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Rhino16]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Key West spout 7/24
https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578

Note that in order to listen to the audio and full size a video on X, you have to login now.

About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get.  Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU.

Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused.  This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore.  The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily
.

That video isn’t from this year. I think it was actually on the Corrotoman River on July 4th, 2022.

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

That video isn’t from this year. I think it was actually on the Corrotoman River on July 4th, 2022.

Thanks. I stand corrected!

[Eskimo Joe]

On 7/29/2026 at 10:42 AM, wxmeddler said:

Trees are the real killer to reliability. A major issue is that we're getting to the point in some of the older suburbs / planned communities that the trees planted at the time of housing construction are reaching the post-maturity age. They are going to fail/fall, and unless the landowner / HOA / town / county is on top of it (they are not), then you're gonna get outages with 30 mph gusts. 

After the 2012 derecho, PEPCO spent a lot to study the type and height of trees in their right of way. They determined it was best to plant smaller trees like birch and red buds, and even offered residents a chance to cut down bit trees and have them replaced with smaller ones at no cost. It was incredibly successful and I do not understand why that program was not maintained.

On 7/29/2026 at 10:37 AM, Kmlwx said:

Meanwhile all the PEPCO hate from the 2000s and 2010s has largely faded. Their tree trimming program and preventive maintenance has been absurd the past 10 years or so. 

An event like yesterday in the earlier 2000s could have easily have 250K+ customers without power in the region. 

Yup. My neighborhood was build between 1960 - 1970. Our big issue is that BGE doesn't do tree trimming within the right of way with any set method or schedule. In the ten years that we've lived here, we've only seen one routing tree trimming crew. Compare that to Adams Electrical Cooperative when we lived in PA, who were out every other year.

[SolidIcewx]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

After the 2012 derecho, PEPCO spent a lot to study the type and height of trees in their right of way. They determined it was best to plant smaller trees like birch and red buds, and even offered residents a chance to cut down bit trees and have them replaced with smaller ones at no cost. It was incredibly successful and I do not understand why that program was not maintained.

Yup. My neighborhood was build between 1960 - 1970. Our big issue is that BGE doesn't do tree trimming within the right of way with any set method or schedule. In the ten years that we've lived here, we've only seen one routing tree trimming crew. Compare that to Adams Electrical Cooperative when we lived in PA, who were out every other year.

Pepco stopped going out of their way to ask people. But if a tree is removed they do still offer a replacement tree or if a big one is taken down we sometimes will give out a second tree. BGE is an over complicated hot mess in short when it comes to their vegetation mgmt program. From what i know vegetation mgmt has a heavy focus on fast growing and or invasive species like chinese paulownia.

[mappy]

20 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

After the 2012 derecho, PEPCO spent a lot to study the type and height of trees in their right of way. They determined it was best to plant smaller trees like birch and red buds, and even offered residents a chance to cut down bit trees and have them replaced with smaller ones at no cost. It was incredibly successful and I do not understand why that program was not maintained.

Yup. My neighborhood was build between 1960 - 1970. Our big issue is that BGE doesn't do tree trimming within the right of way with any set method or schedule. In the ten years that we've lived here, we've only seen one routing tree trimming crew. Compare that to Adams Electrical Cooperative when we lived in PA, who were out every other year.

That’s interesting as BGE is out every other year to trim trees along York Road in my area. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[frd]

https://x.com/PettusWX/status/2085091579224555843

 

James Pettus  @PettusWX  16h

 

Classic summertime feel with our upcoming pattern late this week into next week. 500mb flow will keep things active in the northeast quadrant of the CONUS with multiple storm and severe weather chances. Most if not all of which will be mainly damaging wind threats. Generally most of the eastern half of the CONUS will have isolated summertime storm chances with a few severe chances perhaps mixed in. Out west, mostly dry with isolated rain chances continuing in and around Arizona. Unfortunately, it looks like our wildfire risk will persist. As always, stay tuned to your local NWS office for day by day official forecasts.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUnit]

Csu wind probabilities are fairly high tomorrow. SPC only has a smaller marginal risk though, maybe it gets expanded and/or upgraded.

[midatlanticweather]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning  NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The NWS in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 246 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oatlands, or near Broadlands, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include... Reston, Leesburg, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Poolesville, Ashburn, Sterling, Great Falls, Countryside, Belmont, Gleedsville, Beallsville, and Sterling Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 241DEG 13KT 3904 7757

KJP

WIND...60 MPH - Radar indicated
HAIL...<0.75" - Radar indicated

[vortex95]

00z HRRR shows decent storms this afternoon, but 01-06z, it oddly has very little.  The 00 and 06z RRFS is lacking in storm coverage as well.  06z 3 and 12km NAM do show plenty of tstms.

Not sure what is going on here.  It is not too warm aloft (700 temps 7-8 C and  1000-500 thickness 576-577), flow aloft is slightly cyclonic, and w/ temps maxing in the mid 90s and dews low-mid 70s, I see no reason why tstm coverage should not be sct-bkn.

Plenty of instability CAPE 2500-3500, lapse rates better than several days ago up to 6.5 C/km at mid-levels. PWATs around 2" so big rain potential again.  Winds aloft kind of MEH.  So expect multicellular clusters.
 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

00z HRRR shows decent storms this afternoon, but 01-06z, it oddly has very little.  The 00 and 06z RRFS is lacking in storm coverage as well.  06z 3 and 12km NAM do show plenty of tstms.

Not sure what is going on here.  It is not too warm aloft (700 temps 7-8 C and  1000-500 thickness 576-577), flow aloft is slightly cyclonic, and w/ temps maxing in the mid 90s and dews low-mid 70s, I see no reason why tstm coverage should not be sct-bkn.

Plenty of instability CAPE 2500-3500, lapse rates better than several days ago up to 6.5 C/km at mid-levels. PWATs around 2" so big rain potential again.  Winds aloft kind of MEH.  So expect multicellular clusters.
 

I share your confusion about why the HRRR and RRFS have switched to an unenthusiastic solution for this afternoon.  

[WxUSAF]

SPC upgraded today to a slight risk for DC metro and points NE

[dailylurker]

30 minutes ago, high risk said:

I share your confusion about why the HRRR and RRFS have switched to an unenthusiastic solution for this afternoon.  

I feel like short range models have been especially terrible this season. Parameters look healthy like vortex is saying. Today looks great for some fun imo. 

[kgottwald]

NWS screwed the pooch yesterday morning by putting zero pops for Fairfax County in the 4 a.m. forecast.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who trusted them and left my umbrella home!

[WxUSAF]

Hrrr jumping back onboard 

[AdamHLG]

These are the days I feel potential.  It's the "all in" days that usually disappoint.  For example:  No crapvection today.  Sunny.  Only 10:30 am.

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

These are the days I feel potential.  It's the "all in" days that usually disappoint.  For example:  No crapvection today.  Sunny.  Only 10:30 am.

Super humid too. Need some triggers and storms should erupt once we get to a hotter temp this afternoon. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Normalized CAPE and 12z RAOB from IAD/RNK/PIT would argue skinny CAPE profiles. Shear is also pretty weak too, but the 1.8" - 2" PWATs would suggest isolated flash flooding is the bigger risk, especially around any surface boundaries.