2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[vortex95]

FWIW, overall the CG counts has not been that crazy so far.  So in that regard, not much to "miss!"  Cells themselves have not been that impressive structurally as a whole as well.  Misery loves company!  Maybe we can pull it off later as stronger forcing comes in.
 

[Roger Ramjet]

5 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said:

Radar is really starting to blossom over my house now. Very heavy rain.

Already at 0.75" in less than 10 minutes. Extremely havy rain!

[AmericanWxFreak]

Storm entering AA cty has a little swirl to it


.

[WxUSAF]

Frederick getting the goods as @dailylurker foresaw 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
444 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland...
  East central Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Upper
  Marlboro, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, Crofton, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Naval
  Academy, Upper Marlboro, Severn River, South River, Sillery Bay,
  Rhode River, Magothy River, Dobbins Island, Glen Burnie, Severna
  Park, Odenton, Pasadena, and Arnold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 7638 3896 7645 3880 7649 3879 7649
      3878 7651 3869 7670 3880 7682 3917 7665
      3907 7642 3906 7642 3901 7637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 219DEG 39KT 3885 7671

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

[yoda]

I know this MCD is more to our east... but note the disco... bolded mine

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Virginia into the DelMarVa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

   Valid 212043Z - 212215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through the
   afternoon and into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms across Virginia and into the DelMarVa have
   mostly lacked structure thus far with only occasional stronger
   multi-cell storms. As height falls overspread the area this evening,
   expect more robust convection with a greater damaging wind threat
   and an eventual line of storms along or ahead of the cold front,
   advances east. In addition, strengthening mid-level and low-level
   flow will assist in storm organization, further supporting the
   threat.

   ..Bentley.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36648039 37457909 38317774 38907701 39477640 39497553
               39107487 38507479 37967507 37297548 36677596 36648039 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

[AlexD1990]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Literally right on the southern edge. Raining pretty hard though.

Looks like it maybe has some weak rotation?

[yoda]

Radarscope from LWX is picking up 65dbz from the tornadic WV cell... dang

[Kmlwx]

@yoda

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Literally right on the southern edge. Raining pretty hard though.

A few hundredths here. Likely as much as an inch a few miles to my north.

[MN Transplant]

25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Two SVR warnings now SE of DC.  Throwing off a little gust front to the north, so we'll see if anything can happen with that.

It is trying just west of DC.  Not sure if we'll get the upscale growth that Frederick Co did.

[WhiteoutMD]

Is that a hook starting to form on the AA storm?

[Kmlwx]

I'm getting sunshine in Colesville despite radar returns being over me lol

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radarscope from LWX is picking up 65dbz from the tornadic WV cell... dang

[JenkinsJinkies]

What went wrong?

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Two SVR warnings now SE of DC.  Throwing off a little gust front to the north, so we'll see if anything can happen with that.

LWX radar velocities look benign, but ADW and BWI terminals tell the picture well. Legit 60kt gust potential.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX radar velocities look benign, but ADW and BWI terminals tell the picture well. Legit 60kt gust potential.

Isn't part of that because the storm is largely perpendicular movement in regards to the LWX radar? Where in the case of BWI/DCA they have a bit more of a rear/front view of the velocities? 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Echo tops almost 53,000ft on that stuff. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Looks like it maybe has some weak rotation?

Maybe. Impressive T&L. Looks like some hail per radar as it moves towards the DE line. I just took a couple shots of it from my vantage point to the NE. Talk about a "near hit" here. But, just another miss lol.

[yoda]

Looks like the tornadic cell in WV is trying to recycle 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

Looks like the tornadic cell in WV is trying to recycle 

IF (big if) that were to hold intensity...the track could be in your area - but I feel like it will have a tendency to go more south. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

We're in a dead zone for sure. I've given up on severe for today. I'd be happy sitting on my porch watching a steady rain. Unfortunately that doesn't look great either. I'm so tired of boring weather. I'd be happy if my roof got ripped off by a tornado at this point. 

I'm cautiously optimistic we might be able to get something later on today. Our kinematics get better into the evening/night and we should have a fine enough thermo environment to support storms. Once forcing/WV complex arrives may be able to have that serve as our forcing, but it may be too far south. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

IF (big if) that were to hold intensity...the track could be in your area - but I feel like it will have a tendency to go more south. 

There's another supercell i think to its NE that is warned... I think thats our "game"

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

There's another supercell i think to its NE that is warned... I think thats our "game"

Though - look at the storm track at least at the moment. Even that one may be on track to go well south. Closer for you regardless. Maybe some of the more local stuff can grow upscale. There's still a chance! 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Though - look at the storm track at least at the moment. Even that one may be on track to go well south. Closer for you regardless. Maybe some of the more local stuff can grow upscale. There's still a chance! 

Storms forming in NW Fairfax 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Storms forming in NW Fairfax 

Just heard thunder from that! 

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Just heard thunder from that! 

Me too 

[SolidIcewx]

Hopefully the WV complex starts developing and congealing to the NE to get more of the metro.

[dailylurker]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Frederick getting the goods as @dailylurker foresaw 

I literally came to say how Frederick still managed to flood lol. Glen Burnie will get nailed later. I just had a big ole outflow boundary blast through my yard. It was kinda fun for a minute. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Solid downpour here in the city. Definitely hearing thunder! Looks like I happened to get under a dot, lol