2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. 

Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though 

I haven’t looked a ton at the setup and won’t be able till past midday. It seems similar up Monday but with less CAPE traded for better shear both upper and lower levels. Considering we got some supercells then, I see no reason why we couldn’t get them today. 

[StormyClearweather]

KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM RISK LINGERING INTO   
WEDNESDAY.  
  
TODAY'S FORECAST HAS BECOME VERY COMPLICATED/UNCERTAIN DUE TO   
EXTENSIVE HIGH DENSE OVERCAST MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST   
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN OH AND   
NORTHWEST PA. THIS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON HEATING, ESPECIALLY   
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 90F   
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA SEEMS LIKE IT   
WILL SEE THE MOST HEATING AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF   
SEVERE WEATHER. MANY CAMS SHOW A MINIMA IN QPF BETWEEN THE   
ALLEGHENIES AND THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ALSO, HRRR FORECASTS   
ARE LIKELY OVERDONE AS IT HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID  
AND UPPER 90S, WHICH AIN'T HAPPENING BASED ON 24-HR MODEL AND   
CURRENT TRENDS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WX,   
THERE ARE STILL MANY UNKNOWNS AT THIS TIME. 

[jewell2188]

On our way to a bust!

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

On our way to a bust!

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. 

[yoda]

Getting sunny here through the high clouds 

[Kmlwx]

14z HRRR continues to be fairly bullish. I'm relatively "in" so far. 

[AlexD1990]

clouds over here from some storms down by O.C.

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

clouds over here from some storms down by O.C.

not even five minutes after that, random cell pops up and it rains torrentially for about 2 minutes, then abruptly ends. very florida-like

[Kmlwx]

The board is having issues again it looks like

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The board is having issues again it looks like

Must be because of all the lurkers checking in before our major derecho

[Kmlwx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Must be because of all the lurkers checking in before our major derecho

It's Yoda accidentally refreshing this page instead of the SPC site.  

[high risk]

1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

On our way to a bust!

  It might temper the severe threat somewhat, but getting significant storms seems to still be on track.   Each HRRR cycle this morning has been catching on to the fact that we won't get the amount of heating previously expected, and it still initiates widespread heavy convection.

[Kmlwx]

Uptick in lightning near Jerryville, WV

[WxUSAF]

Improved area of clearing east of the BR

[yoda]

85/75 S 15 HX 93 at DCA at noon

[LeesburgWx]

It’s Humid AF outside and Sun keeps poking through. 

[Kmlwx]

Would think a mesoscale discussion would be coming in the next 1-2 hours. But only guessing. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Would think a mesoscale discussion would be coming in the next 1-2 hours. But only guessing. 

Watchi coming soon for KY/OH/WV per MCD just issued... LWX mentioned in WFO list

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Watchi coming soon for KY/OH/WV per MCD just issued... LWX mentioned in WFO list

 

\

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1688
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Kentucky...northern West Virginia...and
   southern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211615Z - 211815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this afternoon
   across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into West Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in southeast Ohio will likely
   continue east-southeast into a more unstable airmass along a
   differential heating zone developing across northern West Virginia.
   Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this cluster.
   Additional storms are expected to strengthen farther southwest
   through the afternoon with sufficient shear for some supercell
   structures. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this
   activity with some large hail potential. In addition, a tornado or
   two is also possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens
   this afternoon/evening. 

   A watch will likely be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours to
   address the threat from the ongoing activity and any additional
   storms which develop.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

[WEATHER53]

History says this is a big problem when unseasonably strong July cold front whips into a tropically enhanced air mass .  Temps don’t need to be 90 as 80+ will more than do it 

[weatherCCB]

88/74

[aldie 22]

86 with some light rain on the doorstep

[MN Transplant]

87/77.  Ripe.

[Kmlwx]

MCDs seem to be surrounding us lol 

Also 86/78 here. Thought my dewpoint was suspect but @MN Transplant gives me some confidence in it. 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

MCDs seem to be surrounding us lol 

Also 86/78 here. Thought my dewpoint was suspect but @MN Transplant gives me some confidence in it. 

the wording on the PA one makes me think maybe itll be a tornado watch

[MN Transplant]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

MCDs seem to be surrounding us lol 

Also 86/78 here. Thought my dewpoint was suspect but @MN Transplant gives me some confidence in it. 

The mesonet DPs are agressive.

[Kmlwx]

That's one thing that during our heat stretches this year...the dewpoints haven't been mixing down as low as they have in prior heatwaves. That makes a ton of difference for sensible weather...sure we hit 100 sometimes but often the dews would drop back into the 60s. Being up near the century mark and having dews stay well into the 70s is nasty. 

Radar looks meh for the DC region for now - but that activity down deep in VA looks decent. Will have to see if anything more substantial pops up closer in. Some of the CAMs yesterday had a sort of gap in the activity between SEPA and Central VA/Southern Maryland leaving some of us high and dry (relatively speaking). 

[yoda]

First TW up in RLX CWA... STW up down near CHO

[Roger Ramjet]

No sun here today. Temperature of 83. Thinking the heavy stuff is going to be east of me today.

[MN Transplant]

The HRRR wanted initiation to happen already, but so far there is only one new cell up west of Gettysburg.  Things can change quickly in this environment, though.