Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[jayyy]

Even the "dry" 3k drops close to 3" QPF on parts of central Jersey.  12k has those 4" totals again. Jeeby weebies.

That’s why I ultimately chased and am crashing at my cousins up in asbury park. The consensus for 2+” of QPF and 35+ mph winds up that way on almost every model is awesome

[wasnow215]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It loves sludge, with Jersey sludge being the tastiest. 

Don't start with my hometown area lol!!

AND you're confusing it with the North Jersey by the way lol. There's more sludge in three blocks of DC than there is an olive southern New Jersey hahahahaha

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Going to sleep?. Have you relocated to a nursing home?. 

You would too if you had a one year old daughter who will be up and ready for action at 6AM regardless of what the models say!  We run a tight ship around here. OK sorry for banter hope you all get plastered

 

with snow

[hsq]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

0Z 3K NAM was a drier run for the western burbs.  I see no sign of the IVT east of the mountains this run.  Reality is setting in that this is a major storm for the eastern DC burbs and the shore. I will be happy with 3-5 inches of snow blowing around in 40 mph gusts Monday am. Maybe I will get a miracle burst from the IVT to jack my totals but not counting on it.

Yep. SE Zones lost ~0.5”

[Eskimo Joe]

Yes to the 00z NAM. It's legit excellent. Mod to heavy snow with falling temps at night.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you take 80% of Kuchera, this is a bonafide MECS for areas east of I-95 and a SECS for those west except northeastern MD. HECS for Delaware and points northeast. Absolutely insane consistency right now on these mega outputs. 

Hell, it's full BECS for basically all of NJ verbatim.  A significant part of the state is looking at 40". 

[bncho]

NYC was supposed to get skunked with Jan 2016.
Then Central Park recorded 30".
----
DC/Balt were supposed to get skunked with Feb 2026.
Then DCA and BWI recorded ____".

[Eskimo Joe]

My temp in Reisterstown is falling nicely. Down to 34 degrees.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

NYC was supposed to get skunked with Jan 2016.
Then Central Park recorded 30".
----
DC/Balt were supposed to get skunked with Feb 2026.
Then DCA and BWI recorded ____".

21”

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z 3K NAM was a drier run for the western burbs compared to 18Z. I see no sign of the IVT east of the mountains this run.  Reality is setting in that this is a major storm for the eastern DC burbs and the shore. I will be happy with 3-5 inches of snow blowing around in 40 mph gusts Monday am. Maybe I will get a miracle burst from the IVT to jack my totals but not counting on it.

IVT is pretty much exactly where it's been modeled in previous runs, just narrower.

[Wetbulbs88]

Am I missing something, or is modeling still jumping around with the Low a lot before it finally phases and reaches the benchmark? 

Someone smarter than me answer please. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z snow maps compared to 18Z. Nice storm but nothing major about it in Frederick or Loudon counties except Northern Catoctins on this run.

[Jebman]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

You know why this happened? The Alberta vort phased! It's a mother fucking TRIPLE PHASER

EPIC sig material

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Don't start with my hometown area lol!!

AND you're confusing it with the North Jersey by the way lol. There's more sludge in three blocks of DC than there is an olive southern New Jersey hahahahaha

I agree with your DC comment. But I'm not in DC and wouldn't/couldn't if my life depended on it.

[bncho]

[winter_warlock]

My temp is already down to 35.6F after a high of 52 today!

[gopper]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

0Z 3K NAM was a drier run for the western burbs compared to 18Z. I see no sign of the IVT east of the mountains this run.  Reality is setting in that this is a major storm for the eastern DC burbs and the shore. I will be happy with 3-5 inches of snow blowing around in 40 mph gusts Monday am. Maybe I will get a miracle burst from the IVT to jack my totals but not counting on it.

Agree.  The distribution of precip is definitely off from the previous run, unless your in NJ.  This is all just a simulation until game time.  Either way we slice it, we gonna get snow!  Let's enjoy every moment of it!!

[bncho]

39 in McLean. 2 degrees colder than the cold 3k NAM

[Interstate]

37.8/32.2 here in 21057

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, gopper said:

Agree.  The distribution of precip is definitely off from the previous run, unless your in NJ.  This is all just a simulation until game time.  Either way we slice it, we gonna get snow!  Let's enjoy every moment of it!!

Agree, we’re lucky to be in the game at all with trash pacific puke airmass and a miller B.  This is all gravy.  

[T. August]

Down to 34.9° after a high of 51.3°

[ravensrule]

35.2 here. 

[Miss Pixee]

54 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

42.6F here in the District highlands.

41 flat here in hilly SE. DP 29

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

37 in urban heat island hell, not too bad!

[mitchnick]

0z FV3 stinks for everyone compared to Nams and Hrrr

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

0z FV3 stinks for everyone compared to Nams and Hrrr

your the only one looking at the crap model

[midatlanticweather]

38/29 - NAM norlun is just to my SW on this run. Was wider previously. Exact location TBD - 

This is when we should see tightening up on the west side for precipitation expansion (I think that is what others have said), so seeing it a little less this way is not a surprise, but it could just be noise! 

 

[Ji]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

38/29 - NAM norlun is just to my SW on this run. Was wider previously. Exact location TBD - 

This is when we should see tightening up on the west side for precipitation expansion (I think that is what others have said), so seeing it a little less this way is not a surprise, but it could just be noise! 

 

we need the robust Euro to save us now of all models lol. It was the best model for us!

[bncho]

obs looks better than a lot of model initializations FWIW

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

your the only one looking at the crap model

You're the only one that can't spell.