2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do you think my elevation (around 400') is enough to matter for this storm? Thinking it will be as I've done pretty okay in elevation dependent events.

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

[snowmagnet]

Yesterday we were talking about knowing accumulation until evening and less than 10 to one ratios. It sounds like that has changed significantly.  Are we looking at low ratios with the initial storm and higher ratios with the coastal? I might’ve missed it, but are there any analogs?

[Wetbulbs88]

10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Not sure how I feel right now. Most models show 4-6” out here but we are so damn close to more. Storms like this make me want to move Northeast so bad

Living in NYC was noticeably easier. Models generally trended TOWARD snow far more often than here. 

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up. 

Ya.. My backyard.. Lol. I am the eternal pessimist for western Loudoun. There is definitely going to be a gap and the effect of areas nearby losing out due to the way the dynamics work. Hoping to be in the good.. Bug close to being missed.. But too early to be that specific. Thanks for all the details 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

ICON looks fine.  Ignore the snow maps, they are irrelevant.  0.3" precip falls in DC-Balt after 00z, and if we are taking 22z to be the changeover, there's likely another 0.1" added to that (I only have the 6-hr increments on Pivotal).  So, that puts it in the 0.4" of snow QPF camp.

RDPS (RGEM) similar, maybe 0.3"-0.4" in that timeframe, with the exception of the inverted trough which remains from Leesburg to Hagerstown.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ya.. My backyard.. Lol. I am the eternal pessimist for western Loudoun. There is definitely going to be a gap and the effect of areas nearby losing out due to the way the dynamics work. Hoping to be in the good.. Bug close to being missed.. But too early to be that specific. Thanks for all the details 

I think you’ll do better than me in eastern loudoun unless the ccb comes 20 miles west. You have better elevation (I’m a little over 300 ft) and I could get stuck between the ccb and ivt bands. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Last question… this you? Ya’ll able to say how automated vs. manual it is? I love it for obvious reasons but don’t know how it gets pulled together. 

Idk who set that up, but that's actually our 90th percentile from our probability precipitation portal. I'm not sure why that says 50th percentile. I just checked and that is, to a T our 90th percentile. And yes, those are automated with an algorithmic process that produces a more gaussian distribution based off our forecast. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

Thanks for all you do friend! Hoping you cash in at home! 

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

If anyone needs me tomorrow, I'll be on my roof.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Idk who set that up, but that's actually our 90th percentile from our probability precipitation portal. I'm not sure why that says 50th percentile. I just checked and that is, to a T our 90th percentile. And yes, those are automated with an algorithmic process that produces a more gaussian distribution based off our forecast. 

I’m thinking 3-6” in VA/DMV east of 15 towards I-95, high end if caught under norlun banding. 

[NorthArlington101]

Idk who set that up, but that's actually our 90th percentile from our probability precipitation portal. I'm not sure why that says 50th percentile. I just checked and that is, to a T our 90th percentile. And yes, those are automated with an algorithmic process that produces a more gaussian distribution based off our forecast. 

Ah! Terrible news. Sounds like someone should contact WxBell. But thanks. Curious what they are pulling the 90th percentile from lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

My NWS forecast for tomorrow is a chance of rain and snow with less than 1 inch accumulation.  Not even a WWA.

[T. August]

RGEM just won’t bite, about the same as 6z

[DDweatherman]

Just now, T. August said:

RGEM just won’t bite, about the same as 6z

It’s just dry. Unusual for Rgem. It was west some up top.

[CAPE]

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

Sounds like a field trip to DFH in Rehoboth is in order. Official business 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

But at least you'll be on the water.  Should be pretty gusty overnight.

[baltosquid]

ICON-EPS reflects the op - tick west initially but pushes the low out faster. Minimizes CCB time west of the bay and QPF dips as a result.

[Chris78]

Icon and Rgem both have the IVT in pretty much the identical area.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Idk who set that up, but that's actually our 90th percentile from our probability precipitation portal. I'm not sure why that says 50th percentile. I just checked and that is, to a T our 90th percentile. And yes, those are automated with an algorithmic process that produces a more gaussian distribution based off our forecast. 

FWIW, I checked out WPC's page and here's what is indicated for the 50th percentile through 12Z Monday (24-h snow).  Issued earlier this morning.  So yeah, that other plot for some reason must be a higher percentile.  Still, this looks pretty darned fine to me!

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Icon and Rgem both have the IVT in pretty much the identical area.

Do you have maps?

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

My NWS forecast for tomorrow is a chance of rain and snow with less than 1 inch accumulation.  Not even a WWA.

Really? I just typed in Cross Junction, VA and it’s all snow after 4 and 2-5”

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Sorry for the banter, but good to see you posting.  Hope you're feeling better!

In the hospital still but feeling much better than yesterday. Thank you 

[Jake Wx]

9z rap pretty juiced

[EB89]

The 4 inch minimum over Frederick does not have me feeling very confident for my my area. 

[MN Transplant]

12 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

My NWS forecast for tomorrow is a chance of rain and snow with less than 1 inch accumulation.  Not even a WWA.

You need to look at the forecast overnight.  Tomorrow daytime is not relevant unless you are a true GFS believer.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sounds like a field trip to DFH in Rehoboth is in order. Official business 

This will be the third(or fourth) blizzard for S DE since 2017. I was there for that one and then the bomb cyclone of Jan 2018. This one will also be a bomb. That area has done very well with these Nina coastal lows.

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Do you have maps?

 

[MountainGeek]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

What are the primary factors that influence your thinking for the "target" elevation in a given storm? Eg, sometimes you give 600', others 800 or 1000 or 1,500 etc. 

[Eskimo Joe]