2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Wow ICON big h5 amping shift at hour 42, digging further south/more amped. 

[MN Transplant]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

Don’t worry, when we have 4” of slop while the rest of the NE corridor is buried, you’ll feel at ease.

[clskinsfan]

ICON about to go off.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

Regardless of how this turns out, you're here in spirit, with GUYS and FOLKS!!!

[bncho]

[MDsnowPRO]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

Thought for sure you were going to bail on your flight this morning 

[bncho]

forecast of 0-8+

[nj2va]

CAPE should like the ICON…he’s getting raked at 6z Monday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Huge shift by the icon, so close for dc.  Baltimore and east get the goods. 

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

That looks like the footprint of the IVT? Before today's NAM runs the only model pulling it that far west was the GFS. The other guidance joining in on that would be its ultimate victory. 

Add the ICON to that list.. really just the RGEM and Euro need to display that configuration for the GFS to have nailed that synoptic setup well in advance. 

[Brianonymous]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate all of you rn

By being out of state, you manifested this blizzard into existence. Thank you for your service

[GreyHat]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I might have to update Gray Hat forecast

Funny, glad some have been stating to use 3k Nam. Why then the 12k Nam?

After today's weather over here that wasn't forecasted anything is possible. 

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Huge shift by the icon, so close for dc.  Baltimore and east get the goods. 

ass hair differences would put us in the money

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

RGEM with positive changes too…

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Nomz said:

ass hair differences would put us in the money

Yeah so close…let’s just hope we keep trending to a quicker cleaner phase overnight. 

[wasnow215]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No it doesn't. 

Kuchera is not snow depth

[T. August]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

RGEM with positive changes too…

Still comically warm at the sfc

[snowfan]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Don’t worry, when we have 4” of slop while the rest of the NE corridor is buried, you’ll feel at ease.

The accuracy here is top notch. Our 3-6” that’s going drip drip on Monday morning will be epic. 

[wasnow215]

37 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

 

Truly not understanding the denial of this. This is 100% right. Snow depth is much less than Kuchera.

[LP08]

Rgem just refuses to get any coastal precip west. Moved the inverted trough west of Dc this run

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

forecast of 0-8+

Posting CWG maps is usually an auto ban here. I don’t make the rules. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Huge shift by the icon, so close for dc.  Baltimore and east get the goods. 

I can barely tell if Baltimore gets in that band or not, lol I gotta say snow maps drive me crazy sometimes because Baltimore City is such a small spot on a map and predictions often draw lines over and between it, and I'm like...okay which side am I??

[WxMan1]

Just to throw some caution to the wind, which essentially becomes my low bar...

NAM total snow depth change, considering the 33-34F surface temps, at least for most of us prior to 21-22Z. Note that both the NAM12 and NAM3 have the bulk of this after 21Z. The NAM3 particular, in my opinion, does a nice job with what looks like rain/snow mix until then, more rain or snow depending on the rates, again with the main show after 21Z. 

Again, what I would hope to be the absolute lowest bar. Even still, those east of the Bay still do quite well. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Truly not understanding the denial of this. This is 100% right. Snow depth is much less than Kuchera.

Being honest, if I were home, this would be my worry, the warm sfc temps

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I can barely tell if Baltimore gets in that band or not, lol I gotta say snow maps drive me crazy sometimes because Baltimore City is such a small spot on a map and predictions often draw lines over and between it, and I'm like...okay which side am I??

I have a feeling baltimore/Annapolis and east do well, dc could go either way I think. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Rgem just refuses to get any coastal precip west. Moved the inverted trough west of Dc this run

To calm PSU's nerves hopefully.. Every model but the Euro (naturally, since it has yet to run at 0z) places the IVT West of DC. We can all rest easy. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON went west compared to 18Z.

[high risk]

I love the usage of the snow depth field, but two flaws of that product are that it tends to be too low when 1) it gets warm before an event   2) rates are legit

[MillvilleWx]

28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

HRRR has that same band. too. 

That’s part of the norlun trough. Watch for that scenario closely. I’m not kidding when I say someone well away from the coast will have a nice surprise. 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Being honest, if I were home, this would be my worry, the warm sfc temps

That's what @WxMan1just posted- snow depth. Real numbers