2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[MN Transplant]

The HRRR is a believable scenario.  Comes in with a good slug of early moisture, lulls midday, and then ramps back up and cools down late afternoon into evening.

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point.

As an engineer who designs powerplants...I see these these ranges they throw out and almost get an anxiety attack.  Lol 1-12" for dover.  

[bncho]

confluence weaker on the NAM too, at hour 12

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

You got this @bncho
Lead us to the promised land in Randy’s absence. 

[NVAwx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now perhaps this isn't for this thread oer se, but perhaps still on topic...how do you calculate those ratios? Layman question, lol

I believe the ratio we're using is as follows:

5 hours ago, bncho said:

DIY ratios plz

edit: do your own ratios is the message. example: that shows me at around 10" 10:1. cut that down to 7" for 7:1 ratios and remove 2" for melting and I get 5" from that. simple math

 

 

[bncho]

HRRR btw

\

also @NVAwx that's only for my backyard, and it's pretty conservative. Please look at soundings, surface temps, and upper air temps and make your own assesment

[Amped]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

confluence weaker on the NAM too, at hour 12

Already digging the 250mb jet more into Arizona.

[NVAwx]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LWX’s range map shows how uncertain the forecast is at this point.

The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR 7pm Sunday and more to go. We are being HRRR'D!!!!

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

HRRR btw

\

also @NVAwx that's only for my backyard, and it's pretty conservative. Please look at soundings, surface temps, and upper air temps and make your own assesment

That’s all before the real show even starts lol.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

HRRR btw

\

also @NVAwx that's only for my backyard, and it's pretty conservative. Please look at soundings, surface temps, and upper air temps and make your own assesment

That's only thru hr 48. Probably 12 more hours to go !!

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, NVAwx said:

The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

That's good info to know, thank you for explaining the math.  My engineer brain can sleep now.  

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR 7pm Sunday

Hrrr is my new favorite model

[bncho]

southern stream slower at hour 15

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.

My hope is that this becomes a Feb 10, 2010 type of a pivot, but from hobbyist experience I will say this is definitely a setup in which you want to temper celebrations until it’s actually snowing. Miller Bs are a mortal enemy for central md. We’re generally not good at them.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That’s all before the real show even starts lol.

[LeesburgWx]

Everything keeps trending in 5 km steps west run after run. If it keeps going up to game time.. oh man

[snowmagnet]

This feels a bit like the Ji storm of 2022. If I remember correctly, it had been on and off radar,  so most had given up. Then 2 or 3 days before, everything started to change. If I remember correctly, the GFS led the way and the Euro caved to it.  I had been away for my anniversary and not paying attention until I saw Jay's post.

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR 7pm Sunday and more to go. We are bring HRRR'D!!!!

And it’s not even close to being done at 48 so it’s going to be a beast. Hopefully it will beat last month’s storm.

[bncho]

NAM is more amped at hour 27

[yoda]

00z NAM h5 24

[yoda]

00z NAM h5 30

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM h5 30

Closes 3 hrs later

[bncho]

lol that alberta vort is close to phasing... would be a BECS triple phaser  if that happens

[clskinsfan]

That western death band on the HRRR is tasty. NAM is looking better too. I am getting sucked back in. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

lol that alberta vort is close to phasing... would be a BECS triple phaser  if that happens

There’s a shit ton of energy in the flow this run, hope it feeds into things. 

[wxmeddler]

Stronger and further west at H5 coming out from the northern plains

[weathercoins]

Truly can’t remember a storm trending like this within 48 hours, with GFS (sort of) leading the way synoptically 

[yoda]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Stronger and further west at H5 coming out from the northern plains

H5 at 36 00z NAM... now we wait for like 10 minutes for the run to resume lol

 

[TSSN+]

Lovely